Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18

[big18741]

Haskin like last year is giving out some of the figures in his dozen report.

[TGJB]

Points leaders package for Oaks/Derby will be for sale next couple days as usual.

[ajkreider]

Yes.  Was relying on Haskin\'s comments.

[jbelfior]

IMO not a chance Vino Rosso is twice the price of Audible.

Audible will be closer to 10-1 than 5-1 especially now that the Gronks are in the picture. VR not going off in the mid-teens.


Good Luck,
Joe B

[Tavasco]

No equivocation, I like that.

Furthermore, I\'m confident your opinion does not qualify as an assertion even though some may assert it is.

So Joe, I contend Mendelssohn is an overlay in the win slot @ 7/1. Do you opine any currently fair/accurate prices in the the win spot.

[TGJB]

VR will be about 7th favorite, it’s worth looking at what price the 7th favorite usually is. I think he’ll be at least 5 points higher than Audible.

[Tavasco]

and can you leak whether it matters?

[Fairmount1]

Since \'08 (last 10 Derbies),

Lowest 7th choice was 11.90-1 (Soldat-Twice the Appeal actually co-6th choices and I\'m not sure which had more money in the win pool).  Dialed In was the fav at 5.20-1.  

Highest 7th choice was 19.20-1, Z Fortune in \'08.  Big Brown was a 2.40-1 favorite.  

The median during that time frame is 14.70 (average of the two numbers in the middle).  14.40 Mubtaahij and 15.00 Hence

[Tavasco]

In addition to the runup c/b some think the time relates to yardage. Whereas I\'m pretty sure it actually relates to meterage.

[Niall]

So... anectodally we (I) can say that there are quite a few variables on which we cant agree and/or interpret differently as pertains to the Dubai races. Runups, metre\'s, reactions, pairs, lasix on, and the list goes on. Seeking clarification on this chilly late April North Country evening, I consulted the archives and found myself at the Y2K Breeders Cup TG\'s (not sheets) to see what A O\'B did with another dirt bred who was trying to win a major North American dirt race. Thank you all for the latitude as I may not be completely accurate. Still, maybe no relevance but check out Tiznow and Giant Causeways pages. Wonder what that analysis looked like...5 point top. Anyway, fastest horse, top trainer, appropriate running style, adds Lasix, 7-1, and there you have it. Until the draw anyway. One more comment...was anyone at the Breeders Cup and was around the paddock for the Juv Turf? Heard it was quite the scene with Medelssohn screaming and dropping like a stallion. If you read this and say \"what is this dude on\"? I understand

[Tavasco]

Just yesterday I was pondering this subject. I took the fork in the road that led to Occam\'s Razor. There I was, calm and settled. Imagining 7/1 on a horse as fast as any, a trainer as good as any. Keep it Simple I thought.

Then Niall shows the other side of the coin. Starts his thoughts with the word anectodally. Who uses words like that. Federal Prosecutors, College Professors, Rail Birds at Belmont Park? Plus sounds like he\'s freezing in a snow storm to boot.

His thoughts seque the narrative to the wonderful real world history of horse racing and the Kentucky Derby, this site and the potential for some color commentary to parrallel the discussion now morphing into form lines, patterns, and physics.

As we advance through the process that is the Kentucky Derby buildup. The preps are over, TG has published the numbers. The post draw is down the line. Some hope we have no more defections while others hope there are. Newbies are creating accounts in preparation for koolaid binges. We can hope alumni stop by.

Seems a good time for a brief nostalgistic journey down memory lane. RIP Giants Causeway.

What Is Giants Causeway?

A Look See

2000 BC Classic

[TGJB]

I feel compelled to point out that the poster you responded to has confessed to posting post-mushrooms.