Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18

[jp702006]

How many years has it been since a horse has come out of the Wood and won or even finished in the trifecta in the Derby? There have been several horses with great figs and decent patterns come out of the Wood and not crack the top 3 in Louisville. Don’t know what to make of this, but it is food for thought.

Patrick

[Tavasco]

I thought this might come up. I\'m not shy about criticizing the Wood and all told I conclude as a group, they (Wood alumni) are not very good in early May (to be polite). Further, Like you say too many got too much spotlight and steam which apparently cooked them.

Vino is not yet a steam engine. In fact the Wood prejudice and other factors have kept him somewhat under the radar. He\'s one individual and doesn\'t have to be saddled with the sins of the group.

I don\'t know what # TG awarded him but it wasn\'t a red one was it?

[jp702006]

I’m not saying that I won’t be using Vino, I’ll probably be wary however. Unfortunately for me, I keyed Normandy Invasion and Frosted in recent years😳

[RICH]

after looking at him, that line stinks to me, whether he paired his 2 yr old top, or moved 2 pts, I do not like that line at all

[Tavasco]

I still can\'t mention %@**($_ Upstart without cursing.

So we expect nada from a Woody but one day one of them will follow through.

Similar to Russian Sanctions.

[rhagood]

Take that 25 seconds with a grain of salt, Meydan must have a very short run up to the timer similar to Gulstream Park 1 mile races where the 2nd quarter is always faster than the 1st.  
For comparison, later that night Thunder Snow led in 25.73  (http://www.dubairacingclub.com/race/racing-info/trakus-chart). West Coast, who is not slow ran 25.88.  

Medelsshon does have natural speed and has been forwardly placed on all surfaces, he ran 23 and 47 on the Delmar turf no more than 1.5 lengths back. He will be in the first quarter of the field and looking to stay out of trouble. Only an inside draw will force a more aggressive approach. In Meydan, Moore hustled him out of gate to take advantage of the speed/rail bias. For more on that see this lengthy youtube video which details the extent of bias. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O48Tx5f4HpA courtesy of Phillip Walton Vosburgh

FWIT Andy Sterling thought it more a rail bias but nonetheless it did impact the performance and final figure.  If you deduct for said bias then he still has a co-top? Would this lessen the likely bounce forthcoming?  Or is a super effort still too hard to pair up or have only a slight regression no matter how it was earned?  He will have 5 weeks to recover but an international flight and quarantine will cut into that recovery time. He is a May 17 foal, so a young 3 yr old is up against it on several counts. Being fastest going, you have to decide what do with him before you move on to the rest.

[wrongly1]

That was the colts first attempt on dirt, do any of his previous figures apply?  We know this horse; unlike so many Adain has shipped prior, was bred for the dirt.
 
I find it interesting that so many are predicting a bounce because it was a big figure.  If the horse had been based in the US, made his first dirt start in the SA Derby, by an EPO loving trainer, earning the same -4, would your take be the same?

[toppled]

Add another factor in: He will be returning to Lasix after not running on Lasix in the UAE.

[Chas04]

Tossing all the Pletch & Bafferts time of the year again around here I see. Gotta love it. I remember the nonstop abuse if Pharoah was whispered he looked hard to beat. Never forget

[ajkreider]

Value plays are value plays for a reason.  His pattern won\'t look that good, but maybe the Tampa efforts can be chalked up to surface issues.

His Wood number puts him in the discussion with Justify and Audible, at more than double the price.  Will look to see his workouts at Churchill.

[jwbcardinals]

I was in Vegas yesterday and stopped by the Wynn.

They have 6 horses single-digits to win the KD.  I don\'t think the real odds will be that compact.  

Shockingly they have Justify as 8-1 to win the Triple Crown.  How is that a logical bet?

I think it is important to recognize that their approach is different and don\'t follow the same methodology that Fairmont is using.

[Gerard]

From what I\'ve been reading, he\'s a strong worker. Repole said he wanted the Wood moved to 9:00 am, expecting him to be a head turner at CD. I\'m not as sure about the surface change or 2nd time blinkers as much as the outside post he had in the Wood. For now I\'m earmarking him to have to be quite wide in order to pair, and there seem to be more than a few in that category this year. I have Bolt in that category as well and while Castellano says loyalty drove him, I\'m not quite buying it. Anyway, VR just didn\'t look comfortable rating inside in the Davis or the TBD. Could\'ve been the surface, will definitely be a game time decision with the odds board on him.

[bluechip21]

I’ll preface the below with the following. Forgive me for crashing this insightful conversation with an extremely dumb question.

How are you able to see Vino’s and Wood number? Or are you just speculating on what you think it may be?

[Gerard]

I have no idea about anyone else, but I\'m merely speculating based on Beyer. I\'m eagerly awaiting the pre entries for conformation.

[bluechip21]

Thanks. Wasn’t sure if I missed a special or something.