johnnym Wrote:
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> My 2 Cents.
>  
> I hate betting favorites and may have a say in
> this.
> JB how certain are you of that first #?
> He had a 6 point reaction if that initial # is
> correct.
>
Given the hot pace he set in his 2nd race that was not a negative reaction and I would consider his debut figure the more representative one.

Fine. That\'s what I get for trying to defend your figure against those that can\'t believe that a horse can run such a big top at 6. Someone even misinterpreted a study claiming that it showed that a horse cannot do that and therefore your figure is bogus until I showed him how to interpret the study. I only answered this post because someone was making the absurd claim that a 6YO horse is equivalent to a 55 year old man. If you don\'t doubt that you know less about horses than I thought you did.
Okay, just let everybody say that your figure is impossible and come down on me for defending it and saying it was possible. Who needs this ungrateful shit.

Bet Twice Wrote:
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> I have no problem with the number.  My issue is
> and was with you spouting off with some ridiculous
> argument, which at this point, I’m not even sure
> what that argument is.  Probably best to let this
> go at this point.

What ridiculous argument am I putting forth? The only way for the figure to be correct is that it is possible for a 6YO horse can run such a big new top. I am defending the figure by proving that a 6Y0 horse can run such a race. If you don\'t believe that you are the one questioning Jerry\'s figure. If you have trouble interpreting the study just look at the chart that shows the horses\' Beyers peak at 4.45 and decline very slowly in the following years.That is just the average horse. About half of all horses peak even later.

Fairmount1 Wrote:
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> Wrongly1 wrote:  \"We all know who Peter Miller is
> and why that horse popped a big number.\"
>
> HARD WORK.  
> UP EARLY IN THE MORNINGS.
> LET\'S A HORSE BE A HORSE.
>
> Those are the only ones I can think of that would
> add up to a negative six.....
>
> If you question Jerry\'s number by the way
> (bobphilo), then you better question Beyer also.
> “It is the highest figure we’ve ever assigned
> to a turf race,...\"  Do you really think JB and
> Beyer both got it wrong?  I haven\'t look at
> Timeform or Bris; maybe others can weigh in on how
> those two saw the race.  
>
> https://www.drf.com/news/jerardi-stormy-liberals-1
> 19-beyer-one-books

I am not questioning Jerry\'s number. I\'m actually defending the possibility of a 6YO horses ability to run a big new top against all those that think he\'s too old. I\'m defending his number but he\'s taking it as an insult. It\'s those that can\'t believe the number that are criticizing Jerry\'s figure making accuracy.

TimeformUS is giving it a 128. I\'m asking Craig there what the horse\'s previous figures were and what he thinks about this.

wrongly1 Wrote:
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> We all know who Peter Miller is and why that horse
> popped a big number.

That would be another plausible explanation.

Bet Twice Wrote:
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> Bob - nobody is suggesting that a 6 year old
> can’t still be competitive, or in some cases,
> run a new top, but show me another sheet where a
> fairly heavily raced 6 year old whose established
> top is a 2, suddendly runs a -5, faster than any
> turf horse has run before.

Since that is what the figure shows than your complaint is with the figure, not with me.

Please look at the chart for average Beyers by age. There is a very gradual (almost imperceptible) decline from a horses peak at 4.45. And that is just the average. For a 6YO to be at top form is well within the standard deviation. An exceptional horse can even go beyond the standard deviation.

The horses TG figure shows that the horse can and did run this figure. If you don\'t believe that, then complain to JB about his figure.

The post I was responding to is that that a 6YO horse is like a 55 year old man. totally not supported by the evidence.

I did say that it is unusual for a horse to take so long to run such a huge top. However the study posted by grinder shows that 6YO horses can be still run at their top level and still be within the standard deviation. The problem is not that the horse is so old. What is unusual is the size of the top and that it took so long to reach it but not incredible. Of course we\'re assuming that the figure is correct. If not then there may not be anything strange.

Either:
(A) The figure is correct and the horse can and did run such a new top at 6, or
(B) The figure is incorrect.

Take your choice.

grinder Wrote:
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> Well Bob, here is a link to an independent study
> that does not appear to support your
> unsubstantiated assertion.
>
> www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4013968/

Looked at the study and it shows that a racehorse peaks at about 4 1/2, very close to the 5 YO figure I stated. It then declines very slowly (almost plateaus) over the next few years. The standard deviation at 6 shows that a horse can run its best race at 6. A 6YO horse is NOT equivalent to a 54 YO man.
The study supports my statements.

I know that and it has no relevance to this discussion. I too have better things to do than waiting for you to respond to the points in my post, aside from insulting it with no basis. I\'ll be here when you have something substantive to make.

Please what? You didn\'t know a horse can be in top shape at 6? Accelerator and California Chrome all ran their best races at 5, only a year younger. A 6YO horse is NOT equivalent to a 54 YO man. Not even close.

The only odd thing is that it took him so long to run such a big top or that a horse could increase his figure by so much from his previous race at any age. If you believe your own figures, than you must believe that this 6YO horse is not over the hill. Your own figures say that.

BTW, I mistakenly referred to Stormy Liberal as Limousine Liberal. My typo.

Ace Wrote:
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> I had exactly the same question. How does this
> happen at age six?  That\'s like me running a 3:30
> marathon at age 55 with a prior top of 3:54.

Not really. Horses are not even physically mature until 5 or 6. They can then maintain their physical condition for several more years. Some of the best show jumpers are 10 or so.

It\'s just that in racing the good ones are retired young and few of the others can remain sound from the stress of racing for many years. Racing may accelerate the aging process, so yes, in some sense a 6YO race horse may be considered a bit past his prime. Apparently, Limousine Liberal has retained his form at 6 as a normal horse would.

I agree. Those thinking that their years of handicapping toils and betting will someday payoff with a \"life changing score\" are being almost as naive as those that think that they will someday be rewarded for their years of playing the lottery by winning the big multi-million dollar prize. True in betting there is a skill component involved but their chances of making that \"huge score\" are almost as bad.

I don\'t know if the same rules still apply but in Germany the Jockey Club knew what they had to do to protect the survival of the sport and no horse could stand at stud unless they had raced at least 2 full seasons drug free.

If true, this is a sad commentary on the sport. We have gotten used to top horses being retired after their 3YO season losing their army of fans to the sport. Then we had Justify not even completing his 3YO season. Now we may have Game Winner retiring after his baby season, disappointing even more potential fans and not even running in the Derby and TC races, which frankly are the only races most people even care about. Imagine any other sport surviving if all their top athletes retired as pre-teens. Yes the sport is increasingly becoming purely a breeding business but if the sport dies the business dies with it. They are killing the goose that laid the golden egg in the name of short term greed.