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Messages - Dr. Fager 1:32

#1
Ask the Experts / Suggestions...
June 14, 2002, 09:46:50 PM
Since a lot of the people don\'t enjoy reading endless threads of rants, personal insults, and various Ragozin issues, how about this...?  Create 2 message boards.  One for pure handicapping issues/posts, and one for all the other nonsense.  If a thread takes a turn (for the worse), then those posts would be moved to the \"nonsense\" board.  Either that, or people who violated the posting guidelines on the \"intelligent\" board would only be allowed to post on the \"nonsense\" board from that point on.

Next, how about a \"download all\" button for the redboard room that would download the entire package of full cards?

#2
Ask the Experts / CD RACE8 TODAY
May 25, 2002, 11:12:42 AM
Does anyone have an opionion on Stephentown VS Sky Terrace?

#3
Ask the Experts / Re: War Emblem
May 24, 2002, 09:45:00 AM
I suppose you\'re right, but I think lots of people hold horses like Easy Goer and Fu Peg with much higher regard then War Emblem, yet War Emblem has already accomplished more than what those 2 did -- IMHO.

#4
Ask the Experts / Why Flores?
May 24, 2002, 07:31:39 AM
Side point...  Flores on \"EOD\" -- couldn\'t they have made a better selection?

Reminds me of an interview I read a long time ago in the Form with CHI jock R. Meier, who is also better on front-runners than closers...  He said that his favorite kind of horse to ride is a big closer on the turf.  lol

#5
Ask the Experts / Re: War Emblem
May 24, 2002, 07:23:19 AM
I second that request...

Considering that we are dealing with a potential Triple Crown horse, it would be nice to know if there is some sort of historical pattern that might predict how he\'ll do.  He got past the \"Balto Star\" hurdle, so who else does he resemble?

I heard somewhere that if War Emblem doesn\'t win the Belmont, that people will never consider him a \"great\" horse.  Considering the figures he\'s popped off, that\'s really unfair to the horse and his connections.

Also, does anyone know what is gonna happen with the $1M bonus from SPT?  I heard the dispute is going to court...

#6
Ask the Experts / youbet.com
May 21, 2002, 03:32:18 PM
I found myself at youbet.com today to catch the live video feed from CRC.

It is implied that their members receive \"free\" information including programs, PP\'s, and TG data.

Is this true, and if so, how much data do you provide to them each day?  All the tracks you do or just 1 track to serve as a free sample?

#7
Ask the Experts / Makes you wonder...
May 19, 2002, 05:55:33 PM
I\'m gonna side with \"James Howard\" on his main point...

If you CAN\'T show a profit making selections, then you shouldn\'t offer such a service.  It gives a negative impression that your product and/or methodology is faulty.

On the flipside, it\'s not fair to judge anything by one or two days worth of results.  Good/logical selections dump all the time.  That\'s gonna happen with any method out there...

Derby...  I agree with J.H. again.  It\'s not right to make positive comments on such a high number of horses, and then toot your horn for being the genius who \"picked\" the winner.

Jim did make a good point though.  If the service doesn\'t win, then don\'t use it.  And if you really feel it\'s SOOOOOOO terrible that the selections will almost never win, then use it as an elimination factor.

Oh, and no crying about how you \"have\" to make 5 selections (or whatever) for each track you do the analysis for.  *Idea...  Why not make spot selections covering ALL playable tracks for that day?  Most people are major simulcast players anyway.

All in all, I am 100% certain that TG figures are vastly superior to any other that I have seen.  All you have to do is go to the Redboard Room, and compare the results.  Add in all the breeding and trainer/jock data, and it\'s a very useful product.

But it makes you wonder...  If the \"experts\" who MAKE the figures can\'t even come CLOSE to showing a profit with them, then how can anyone else???

#8
Ask the Experts / To Chris
May 07, 2002, 02:57:51 PM
Chris --

What do you think of incorporating these guidelines into your Derby profile...(?)

1) Layoff
2) At least 3 preps as a 3yo
3) A minimum # of races for the career (Beyer mentioned that the last horse to win with 4/less races was in like 1918 or something like that)

If you apply those \"rules\" along with the sub-6 jinx, out of your list, the only horse left would be War Emblem.

Just a thought...

#9
Ask the Experts / Re: Derby Post Mortem
May 07, 2002, 02:33:34 PM
VERY interesting idea about trying to use what you know as a handicapper to map out a campaign for a horse in a non-conventional way.

If there IS any horse who could overcome the lack of not having enough prep races as a 3yo, I would think a sub-6 horse could do the trick.

Such management of a horse might allow it to stick around the game a little bit longer than 2 seasons as well...

Win or lose (Derby), I\'d have to tip my hat to someone who would have the \"stones\" and patience to do their own thing amidst a lot of likely pressure to run sooner.

#10
Ask the Experts / Re: HP RETIRED
May 07, 2002, 02:11:15 PM
I second TGJB\'s comment...  First we lose HP and now Seattle Slew?  Not right.

Talk about going out with a bang though...  DAMN!  A memorable post to say the least.

#11
Ask the Experts / Re: Seminar won't play...
May 05, 2002, 01:55:38 PM
I finally got the seminar to load by opening the file directly.  The link from the web page in the download package still does not load properly.

If War Emblem is this year\'s Balto Star, then he is due for a big bounce.  The 3 tops should knock him out for sure.

Also, this seems like the classic example of everyone being irked about a slow-ish pace, and next time, it should be fast enough to cook anyone who is even close to the lead.

#12
Ask the Experts / Seminar won't play...
May 05, 2002, 01:18:42 PM
I downloaded the zip file, and when I open IE and click on the link to play the seminar, it says:

Requested file not found.  The link you followed may be outdated or inaccurate.

#13
Ask the Experts / War Emblem
May 04, 2002, 06:37:11 PM
Don\'t you just LOVE it when you out-smart yourself?  lol  It seems like the eliminations factors I use work better than I gave them credit for.

I\'ll say this...  I never thought I\'d see a SPT horse win the Derby!!!  I guess they owe \"The Prince\" a million dollars for winning the ILL DBY and a triple crown race...  So as it turns out, he got War Emblem for \"free.\"

If anyone had the exacta, then you can pat yourself on the back for a brilliant wager.

#14
Ask the Experts / Re: IMHO - revision
May 04, 2002, 01:33:03 PM
I\'m working on a won-last study involving energy distribution patterns, and neither War Emblem nor Private Emblem have much of a shot to repeat.

In my mind, that knocks everyone out, but obviously SOMETHING has to give, so...

The 4 I have mild feelings for are:

JOHANNESBURG
SAARLAND
CASTLE GANDOLFO
PERFECT DRIFT

#15
Ask the Experts / New late SCR
May 04, 2002, 10:16:30 AM
\"Dan the BG man\" is out.  If Irwin wasn\'t pissed at Baffert before, I bet he is NOW.  lol

There should be some provision to allow other horses to draw-in when there is a scratch.  I would have liked to see Sunday Break make it.  Even if they made the scratched-in horses take the far outside posts, that\'d still be better than getting shut out.