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Messages - jma11473

#1
The sport\'s not growing because while wagering on horse racing is easier than ever before, 10 other forms of gambling that give much better returns also are easier to wager on than ever before, and people are choosing to spend their money on those forms of gambling.

It\'s extraordinarily simple, though extraordinarily hard to fix.
#2
Roman Wrote:
->
> No one has a loud voice in this fractured sport,
> and if they did,  no one would listen.  
> And the it\'s an old man\'s sport, or the fan base
> is dying off, or it\'s a niche sport are all straw
> man arguments. The sport does well in other parts
> of the world.
> They all had the same problems the industry has
> here , the only difference is they addressed them
> while we bury our heads in the sand , and the
> industry will be eaten like a carcass by vultures
> until nothing is left.

The one place horse racing is doing well is Hong Kong, or so I always hear. And the only tiny differences between racing there and here is that there the government controls all the racetracks and the breeding of horses. So nearly the same. Oh, and there are no competing forms of gambling like sports betting or casinos. So gee, it\'s almost identical to the situation here.

Racing IS a niche\' sport and it IS being swallowed up by much more appealing forms of gambling. The solution is to make wagering more appealing, but when racetracks can\'t survive on the current takeout, hard to see big takeout cuts coming. There was a time to change the landscape of the industry but it was 30 years ago when simulcasting became widespread and racing missed that shot. Instead they took a tiny percentage of their own simulcast revenue and eventually strangled their own business.
#3
This is a very interesting, well-written post, which leaves me a little surprised you missed the whole point of \"The Gambler\". It\'s not the James Caan character doesn\'t know WHEN to stop. It\'s that he only feels alive when he DOESN\'T stop. Which is why even when he \"wins\" near the end (in the sense he\'s now even and won\'t be killed), he immediately puts himself in a different dangerous situation. That rush is what he craves, that\'s the addiction.

And it seems the author was craving that feeling in real life as well, as you saw for yourself.
#4
Ask the Experts / Re: State of Misery, Twin Spires Gone
February 08, 2024, 01:36:41 PM
Yeah, much better to play the horses and bet $100 to win what you think is $500, but at post time it turns out to be $200, or you just lose the $100 outright.

As far as \"scripted\", the idea that you\'d keep the hundreds of people involved in such a conspiracy quiet is ludicrous. Influenced, maybe, but scripted?

If you ever meet a pro athlete, someone who has given their body to a sport, ask him if it\'s scripted.
#5
Ask the Experts / Re: Hong Kong racing
December 12, 2023, 11:09:59 AM
We can\'t do it here because the government controls all gambling in Hong Kong and there is no gambling competition for horse racing. They also control horse breeding and training itself so it\'s the same horses all the time.

If you could ban all sports gambling and casinos here so horse racing was the only form of gambling, only have one racetrack open at a time, and have the federal government control every aspect of racing at that track, then you\'d have comparable situations in the U.S. and Hong Kong.

Not denying the good aspects of their product, like all the available information, but it\'s like comparing apples and bowling balls.
#6
Ask the Experts / Re: Dare I ask?
November 04, 2023, 03:58:20 PM
They nailed the Classic right on the head for thousands. I had them about even the rest of the weekend but I\'m so glad I ordered. We\'ve got two races left too.
#7
Ask the Experts / Re: Gambling
September 27, 2023, 09:55:04 AM
Great post Fairmount. I don\'t really see a way to consistently beat the CAWs because they suck the value out of all the pools, but at least what you are doing is cheaper. I wish you luck.

As far as football, literally everything on TV is seeing ratings plummet EXCEPT football, yet apparently no one is watching the NFL. I must have missed the memo.
#8
1) Horseplayers: Clean up the game! All of this cheating is a travesty!
2) Trainer gets busted.
3) Horseplayers: Not that guy! Why him? It was poppyseeds/an ointment/the groom\'s fault. Why don\'t they get Trainer X instead?
4) Horse racing industry: Shakes its head, returns to ignoring cheating.

Baffling.
#9
Ask the Experts / Re: FOY day
March 01, 2022, 08:22:18 PM
BB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

> To me the thing that really stands out in his
> stats is that for four out of five years (\'99-\'03)
> he led the MAJORS in ERA, while pitching half his
> games in that lyric little bandbox of a ballpark
> in Boston. And in the year he \"missed\", he wasn\'t
> eligible because his 18 starts didn\'t get him
> enough innings, but his ERA would have been good
> enough for five-out-of-five.
>
> The thing I really miss about \"old\" baseball is
> the chance to see a guy like Pedro baffle big
> leaguers over 9 innings with skill, smarts, grace
> and moxie.

Pedro had 46 complete games over 18 seasons and 13 of those were in one season, so you only got to see him baffle big leaguers with his moxie for nine innings once or twice most seasons anyway. Funny how the memory plays tricks on us about what we saw.
#10
Ask the Experts / Re: Beychok
January 31, 2022, 09:41:38 AM
prist Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
> I wonder if Kinchen will be looking for a lawyer
> after his DQ.


Since he already tweeted that he accepts the ruling, I\'m thinking no.
#11
Ask the Experts / Re: My best Indian Charlie attempt
November 22, 2021, 08:34:38 AM
Don Rickles: It takes many years to be a great comedian...

Dean Martin: Sure does, and you ain\'t reached that year yet.
#12
Chas04 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I did not vote for Biden and yes I didn\'t see Shoe
> race but you are comparing Del Mars surface in the
> 1960\'s to the surface next weekend. I think things
> have changed.


But that post was saying the \"muck\" didn\'t mean anything as Shoe ran right through it. So it was supporting your point but you\'re still arguing against it.
#13
Ask the Experts / Re: Fixed Odds in New Jersey
May 24, 2021, 10:42:35 AM
prist Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Out of state Grade 1 races. I assume it starts
> when Monmouth opens. The first offering looks like
> it\'s going to be three Grade 1\'s from Santa Anita
> on May 31.
>
> I would like to follow how this goes. Hopefully
> the information is readily available on the
> internet.


Not sure where you got your info, but I think it\'s wrong. Dennis Drazin at Monmouth said they\'d like to have it up and running by Haskell Day (July 17th). It hasn\'t even officially been approved yet, though it looks like it will be.

An Australian company, BetMakers, is going to run it. Company CEO said they hope to establish relationships with racetracks around the country and in other countries. Meaning they haven\'t yet, so it might start with just New Jersey.
#14
Ask the Experts / Re: Listen...
May 11, 2021, 09:12:31 AM
Dana666 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I was thinking along similar lines. If what he
> said in that press conference is accurate (if he\'s
> lying there, it\'s like a whole
> Michael-Corleone-Senate-hearing thing--and he\'d be
> REALLY stupid, which we know he is not), it should
> be easy enough with time to get to the truth, esp.
> regarding the hair analysis. The whole thing seems
> like some kind of set up, or dare I use the \"C\"
> word. None of this makes any sense. I\'m not
> defending him, but until the second split sample
> gets tested, this isn\'t official anyway. And labs
> do make mistakes by the way--any important tests
> for horses or humans should be repeated and
> double-checked. I\'m not saying this is true, but
> there are enough elements who\'d like to do away
> with racing and will take any chance they can get
> to take a free shot at the stumbling giant, like
> the Lilliputians harassing poor Gulliver. I can\'t
> remember the story, did Gulliver have it coming? I
> don\'t think so. Anyway, on to the Preakness, for
> now anyway. Poor Bob won\'t be able to show his
> face in Baltimore. Jimmy Barnes is all he needs
> anyway. I\'m thinking a 1-2 finish will quell the
> critics.


I love how Baffert, who has skated through more drug violations and mysterious deaths while winning more races than 10 trainers put together, is somehow being persecuted. The argument for his innocence is that he\'s too smart to do something stupid, which if it worked as an argument would clear out the prisons in the country. Oh, and the split sample coming back negative, which happens about .00001% of the time, but of course should happen here.

This is typical horse racing---we whine endlessly about illegal drugs, then flip out when someone is actually punished because, what, we like him and he does good interviews? Just baffling why this sport is dying a 40-year slow death, isn\'t it? With fans like us, who needs enemies?
#15
Ask the Experts / Re: Listen...
May 10, 2021, 01:46:18 PM
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The biggest problem is the “positives” are
> garbage, while actual move ups are going on all
> the time. The industry is trying to look like
> they’re serious while not being willing to do
> serious thingsâ€" like freeze and retest samples.
> Like publish test results so we know the testers
> are actually doing their fâ€"-ing jobs.


Disqualifying the most famous trainer in America from the biggest horse race in America seems pretty serious...