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Messages - Lucy

#1
Ask the Experts / Re: penn derby
September 06, 2004, 10:59:20 AM
oh, it\'s an opinion --- just about people, not horses.

edit

ps -- hehehe....
you seem very conflicted as to what to do w/me.



Post Edited (09-06-04 14:00)
#2
Ask the Experts / Re: Question for TGJB
September 06, 2004, 07:58:53 AM
yes, and does it explain why frankel can\'t win gr I\'s anymore?
except that one he just won.
#3
Ask the Experts / Re: penn derby
September 05, 2004, 09:59:09 PM
well, I picked up a form, and I see the penn derby picks are the 3 horses w/the best last race beyer, 3 of the 4 horses who have topped a 100 beyer in the last couple months, and 2 of these picks exit a gr I, running 2nd and 3rd, while the rest of the field is lucky if they hit the board in a gr III.
good luck w/those prices.
looks like you and andy are rowing the same liferaft tomorrow.

go wimpy!!

ps

this is not redboarding.



Post Edited (09-06-04 01:00)
#4
Ask the Experts / Re: Lucy Et .Al.
September 03, 2004, 10:58:59 PM
think monday\'s bbq.
#5
Ask the Experts / Re: lion cavern
September 03, 2004, 08:42:21 AM
yeah, england, and he kept some pretty decent company in france.



Post Edited (09-03-04 11:42)
#6
Ask the Experts / Re: Who is this Foot guy?
September 03, 2004, 07:08:56 AM
from what I read, he trained colstar, who ran 7th in the bc f+m turf of 2000, if that helps you any.

also, looks like he had another on the card who was just a couple lengths back at 30-1.
#7
Ask the Experts / Re: Shezsospiritual
September 02, 2004, 11:26:03 PM
could you give Scott, Michael and Tannenbaum, Edward a message for me?

\'Fellas -- thoro-graph does consulting work, helping manage horses. It makes a difference.\'

kthx



Post Edited (09-03-04 02:26)
#8
Ask the Experts / Re: Lousy Post - JB
August 30, 2004, 10:30:56 AM
I\'m surprised he\'s not just on your instant messenger buddy list...

ps

forgot this --- that guy was just knocking you for posting up a 7-1 exacta as your race OF THE WEEK, and you defend it by saying you got 5-1 out of the race??
must\'ve diluted your play w/all those union place tix.
#9
Ask the Experts / Re: Lousy Post - JB
August 30, 2004, 10:24:56 AM
why is it that every time you make one of these \'the ragozin office just contacted me\' posts, I picture you rocking away in your rocking chair, wearing len\'s glasses and some clothes youstole from his closet?
#10
Ask the Experts / Re: Lousy Post - JB
August 30, 2004, 10:17:58 AM
HP --

It\'s a horse racing bulletin board, not a sensitivity workshop.


jerry --

I\'ll tell you what:
Sarafan running a neck better is irrelevant.
for the 3rd choice in a race to run 2nd by a neck is running WELL, as much as if he had gotten that extra neck.
it\'s not that you didn\'t like him that\'s funny, it\'s that you singled him out as the worst chalk in a stakes race ALL YEAR --- that\'s how sure you were of this one.
this sounds like one of those BEST BETS OF THE YEAR!!1 that we never hear about...


edit:
ps
had it been me, jerry, rather than one of your marks, you would have just deleted my post.



Post Edited (08-30-04 13:19)
#11
Ask the Experts / Re: Lousy Post - JB
August 29, 2004, 07:22:48 PM
hehehe...
3rd choice at 3-1, beaten a neck.
hehehe....

(btw, I believe it was the entire year)

edit:

ps

jerry used lion heart because he had given him very fast #\'s for his last 2, I believe.
he blew those races --- they weren\'t that fast.
let\'s face it, snookie isn\'t going to run 2nd or 3rd in the derby.
what happened was that lion heart was drastically off his peak form of earlier in the year, and many people spotted it.
jerry thought he should have been running faster -- maybe projecting from earlier this year, so he inflicted a different variant on him a couple back to reflect this opinion.
this erroneously gives snookie a big new top which prompts jerry to make that \'likely bounce\' comment in the haskell, when projecting #\'s for that one.
apparently, snookie didn\'t realize he had just run a big new top, or read jerry\'s comments, so he runs 2nd again to a lion heart who, while still off form, manages to improve on the previous race (off the break).
once again, jerry projects from the previous race, and makes the haskell too fast, making lion heart the fastest horse coming into the travers and a use.
in actuality, his last 2 were somewhat comparable to eddington, while eddington was in much better form at 3 or 4 times the price.

like I said, snookie\'s not catching the tri in any ky derby.



Post Edited (08-29-04 22:35)
#12
Ask the Experts / Re: Travers - Postscript
August 29, 2004, 06:10:25 PM
well, there it is --- that horse broke his own foot rather than face the prospect of running 10f.
#13
Ask the Experts / Re: Horse Racing's new popularity
August 26, 2004, 11:48:57 PM
yeah, well, as much as I\'d like to believe that poll, I\'ll bet if you took another one 5 years from now, smarty wouldn\'t get so many votes.
#14
Ask the Experts / Re: class + pace
August 26, 2004, 10:57:16 AM
jim --

1592 beat me to it, so I\'ll just have to agree w/him --- that msw example is more about pace than \'class\'.
I think pace is probably an occasional factor, but not so frequent or predictable as many would believe --- and of course, just my opinion.
the problem w/pace is that it\'s mostly an after the fact thing that\'s used to rationalize a result.
you don\'t really know if pace was a causal factor, but that\'s how it \'looked\', so that\'s how it gets labeled.
I\'d log that in the same diary along w/every other trainer excuse --- maybe the track was greasy.
for every example you come up w/as anecdotal evidence, I could produce a counterexample --- well, I could if my memory was better.
I think roses in may might be a good one, or the race that broke cigar\'s streak, if you want a high profile one w/a little dust on it.
I\'ve seen countless lone speed\'s w/bad Sheets get swallowed up, and I\'ve seen countless \'hotly contested pace\' runners w/good Sheets keep running.
that said, I think it IS possible that the occasional horse gets burnt on a quick pace and quits, and in that case their final fig is just going to look like an x, and you need to keep in mind that it\'s a \'quit\' fig.
you could maybe make a approx fig by shaving off the quit, or simply add a \'quit\' notation, or just handicap w/that in mind.

as for \'class\' I think roses is probably a good example, once again.
another would be a race I played quite a bit ago, where I liked this 25-1 horse --- the gappy drop down dutrow chalk was fastest, but the price looked better than the rest.
so, anyway, after he wins, these guys at the next table were lamenting that nobody could\'ve played that one because he was the cheapest horse in the race.
I use a form, but not much, so I hadn\'t noticed, and neither had the horse.
(and so as not to pat myself on the back, while I did cash him, I blew the exacta and the double).
the problem you\'re going to have defending \'class\' is that there\'s no definition for it --- you can\'t really quantify it.
it\'s about as meaningful as trying to come up w/a system based on how much \'heart\' each horse has.
is roses now a classier horse than he was before his last race?
#15
Ask the Experts / Re: Andy
August 26, 2004, 10:38:22 AM
if I may quote:

\"1—Ten minutes before the panel, Wolff informed me that he would not be asking a question about track speeds, but I could use my (long) presentation as closing remarks. I was screwed—it left me in the position of bringing the subject up out of the blue, which made it an attack on Ragozin \"

\"Wolff appeared to want to keep things nice—then he finished with the question part and wanted to move to closing remarks, which left it to me to bring up the question of the Keeneland 2yo races, again making me the aggressor.\"



I think it\'s tragic how fate so often conspires against you to make it look like you always attack Ragozin.