Lucy Et .Al.

[TGJB]

Here\'s an idea-- we are doing The Pa. Derby as ROTW. How about all you guys who handicap applying other tools and factors jump in before the fact with opinions. I know that some of you already have, at least sometimes-- but we need more of that, and less red-boarding.

[miff]

How do you have an opinion before seeing how the track is playing, how the horses look and warm up and viewing the late odds. Unless I\'m betting pick 3\'s, 4\'s or the Pick 6 I don\'t bet until the last two minutes.I think it\'s relative to how much you bet and in my case, not wanting to give up an inch of any edge I can come up with.

[TGJB]

You don\'t have to make a pick. Just give in advance your opinions involving factors that make them different than I mention in ROTW-- that you like this horse more because, that one less because...

[Silver Charm]

If I\'m right what do I win ??

[jimbo66]

JB,

Not a race I would have picked because I am never right about Dickinson, but I will take a shot.

There looks to be reasonable pace in the race to me.  Snookie\'s Boy might leave, with Love of Money and Wimpelstilskin almost definitely shooting for the lead.  

I don\'t like the Haskell.  As previously stated by me many times here, I thought Lionheart ran mediocre to win it, despite the good number he got.  So I am discounting the performances of Snookie\'s Boy and Pies Prospect slightly.  

I don\'t like deep closers at Philly Park but since I expect a few frontrunners, I am looking for a stalker.  Pollard\'s Vision fits that bill.  He runs poorly when stuck down on the inside because of the inability to see out of the right eye.  But with three speeds, I expect Johnny V to get him in position just off the leaders, maybe 3 lengths back.  He makes his move on the turn and has enough left to hold off any closers.

Don\'t like Song of the Sword, Swing for the fences or Royal Assault.  

Out of the two Haskell horses, I prefer Pies Prospect as he has proven he can run in other places besides Monmouth Park.  Will also use the two \"trainers\" to fill out the exacta/trifecta places, since either can get a horse to fire fresh and I don\'t like anybody in the race.

I have no idea what morning line odds are, but you list Pollard\'s Vision at 8-1 in your analysis, which must be a misprint.  I would be happy with 7-2 and play him over Pies Prospect, Master David and Tapit.

[Saddlecloth]

If you dont mind I will put my two cents in,

The real question, as was previously mentioned is how much faith do you put into the Haskell.  Lion Heart told us nothing as we know.  I did not think it looked very good visually and when I made my figure I thought others had the race rated two highly.  With that in mind I will stand against Pies and Snookie.

Cant play Song off the layoff, and hate rushed three year olds off layoffs like this.

Love of Money could be any kind, but think the big fig was due to the slop, but who knows for sure.

Swingforthefences has not moved forward since February, why would he start now.

Royal Assault looks very interesting.  Zito has pushed all the right buttons, he shows nice progression, just what you would expect out of a Kris S colt, he adds the shades, should be midpack.  Snookie did beat him by 4 two back, which is a concern.  All in all I think a new top is coming.

Master David probably runs back to his top, frankel horses off layoffs usually do, but would that even be good enough?  will be played as well on the tote is my guess,  Also gets weight from most here.

Pollards is consitent and fast, pletcher, john v, good outside post for blind horse.  major player, have to think he is right in the thick of it with a furlong to go.

Niigon is too slow and will loose ground.

Seperato and Wimpl are in too deep.

Tapit is a joke.  his wood was pathetic, I even thought it was rated higher by most then what figure I gave it.  I have played against every wood horse this year and I am not stopping now.  toss as the chalk.

going to bet Royal Assualt to win over Master David and Pollards Vision.

[sabowen]

What is your opinion for the Forego at Saratoga?  You did a classic job handicapping the Travers, looks like Strong Hope fits the bill for the Forego, since he will be heavily bet , any alternatives?  I had the pleasure of meeting Forego at the Kentucky Horse Farm in 1983.  He had feet the size of dinner plates! When visiting, my mom, knowlegeable about horses, mentioned we should all applaud and Forego would come right over- and he did!
Please respond.

[Lucy]

think monday\'s bbq.

[HP]

On factors outside of TG, I would give some extra credit to Royal Assault. They will battle early and I think Patient Pat will have an edge in the stretch. A few of the other contenders look like they might get burned up early. To make things worse for some of the speed/press types there\'s a sprinter in there stretching out.

At 7-1 and up I like Royal Assault to win - based partly on his TG pattern (which makes him live) and partly on the pace scenario.

Could be a good betting race since Tapit figures to be overbet.

HP

[jimbo66]

Having a tough time with the Forego.  Switched my mind a few times.  I thought Strong Hope was a strong bet in the Met Mile against Pioo Central, but couldn\'t have been more wrong.  Freshening him up for this race is probably a good thing as he really fires fresh.  

Most of the horses are throwouts in the Forego go, as they just aren\'t good enough to win.  For \"contenders\", I think you have Strong Hope, Clock Stopper, A Huevo and Midas Eyes.  

Pace is also hard to read.  Does Strong Hope clear easily or does the cutback router with blazing speed, Yessirgeneralsir, push the pace.

For me, I won\'t decide how to bet this race until I see the odds.  My strongest opinion on the race is against Clock Stopper.  He is going to be overbet and I don\'t think he is as good as Strong Hope and Midas Eyes and probably won\'t run be as good as A Huevo.  

My \"odds line\" for the race is:

Strong Hope 35% Chance to win
Midas Eyes 30% Chance to win
A Huevo 20% Chance to win
Clock Stopper 10% Chance to win
The rest combined 5% Chance to win

I am giving Midas Eyes more of a chance than the numbers suggest because I strongly believe that Frankel bringing him back on 10 days rest is a bullish, bullish sign.  Frankel is a big believer in the \"sheets\" and resting his horses, and if he is bringing his horse back on short rest, he must feel strongly that he is going to run huge, which he will have to, to win the race.

A Huevo is impossible to predict.  I just can\'t get over the view of him winning the Grade 1 Defrancis last year under a hand ride after getting pinched back.  How do you predict trainers like Dickinson in this spot?  Impossible.  But I have to respect him.

Tough to say how the race will be bet, but I am guessing Strong Hope is about 7-5, Midas Eyes 5-2, Clock Stopper 3-1 and A Huevo maybe 6-1.  

I may bet Midas Eyes to win, but more likely just play the 400k pick 4, keying Midas Eyes and A Huevo in this race.  

Good luck

[twoshoes]

I have no reason to think the number on the Haskell isn\'t solid and just because Lion Heart showed up lame for the Travers shouldn\'t take anything away from the horses that return here. Pie\'s Prospect will probably be the value come post time and that\'s likely what I\'ll build around. There is no reason to think My Snookie\'s boy will back up significantly and I\'m a little higher on Swingforthefences than most. Royal Assault should get a decent pace scenario and Zito\'s getting good numbers. I\'m negative on Master David and Tapit and Pollard\'s Vision is no faster than Snookie or Pie\'s Prospect and concedes a fair amount of weight. The others look too slow. I think this race is the Haskell and will play it accordingly looking to get Pie\'s Prospect and Swingforthefences in the number at good prices.

[derby1592]

I have a bit different take on the quick wheel of Midas Eyes by Frankel. The horse is obviously not very sound and Frankel may figure it could go bad again at any time (in a race or in a morning workout) so he figures he takes another shot while he can.

I also have a different take on the \"short rest\" angle. As I have said several times before on this board, horses wheeled back on short rest do as well as more rested horses. Every statistical study I have seen supports this. Even Bobby Frankel\'s trainer stats support it and, as stated in this thread, he is a typical \"Mr. Rest\" trainer. I know this is near heresy but next-race reaction on short rest is a \"sheets myth\" IMO. The longer term effects may indeed be substantial but I would not let it keep me from playing a horse in its next race.

Tough race and I don\'t plan on betting it but good look to those of you who do.

Chris

[TGJB]

Thanks to everyone who participated, and there is still time for you others. Lucy, any negative redboarding by you will be taken off as soon as we see it unless you go on the record beforehand.

We took the morning line off the Philly Park website, it was obviously nuts-- everyone else has PV 4-1 so we have now changed it. Personally, I think he\'ll be the favorite, and my comments about him being an underlay in the win pool were made with that in mind.

Mike-- the point about cherrypicking the results after the fact is this-- it\'s meaningless, whether it\'s done by Friedman to show a \"great\" pattern (bet) off Ragozin, by you for bad \"wides\", or by anyone else. Anyone can find results after the fact that support their thesis-- ask the Dosage guys. In fact, when Friedman does it, all I can think of is, man, you guys must have looked bad on an awful lot of other races if you can only find one a week.

[miff]

JB, I don\'t cherry pick results and I dont\' brag about my scores, many of which were aided by my 15 years plus using  your sheets. We debated 15 years ago in your office that, IMO, wider isn\'t faster on many occasions and than slower numbered speed horses have dusted phony wide horses with faster numbers for years.They will do so on just about any track playing speed/up close on the day. Of course, wide runners win their share too when conditions suit them.I understand your opinion as it relates to your formula, but wider simply isn\'t faster on many occasions. I could post hundred\'s of slower numbered horses beating faster wides\'ALL THINGS BEING EQUAL.\'There are countless races in your data base where a horse who ran his eyeballs out receives an inferior number to a perfect trip wide runner who did no \"Dirty Work\" at all.To represent the lower the number the better the race in those instances is blatantly incorrect, IMO.The best number is not the fastest horse in many, many instances.

[cozzene]

Gentlemen

It is Pie\'s Prospect at a big price.

Forget the pace scenario, forget the traditional handicapping.

Close your eyes and make the bet.

Key him in your tri\'s, play him to win, and lets take home half the track.  

Your Friend

Cozzene