I really like Irap. Irap is 4 points faster than anyone in the race and has had 11 weeks to recover from the jump up top. Given the track condition on Derby Day, I am willing to overlook any horses poor showing.

Based on???

Hilarious Godfather reference...

Simple post mortem, the points system has changed the Derby for bettors. Without the cheap 2 year old speed, chalk will reign supreme and we get a result where the best horses run the best, but no money is to be made.

Have to disagree with making this your biggest bet of the year. Yes, pools are huge and soft, but with a 20 horse field there are to many variables to over invest (IMO), especially when you consider there are many better opportunities everyday. For me, picking the Derby winner is more an exercise for bragging rights than the best bet of the year....Ken

While Monarchos did back up in the Wood, it\'s important to remember that after his tremendous run in the Florida Derby, Trainer John Ward said publicly before the Wood that Monarchos wouldn\'t be fully cranked for the race and that winning wasn\'t the goal. Given that his trainer made these statements pre-race, I would tend to discount the fact that Monarchos backed up in his last prep....a point I should have considered on Derby Day when I could have cashed a nice ticket at 10-1.

I\'ll add to your post that I don\'t understand why Romans chose to run both Brody\'s Cause and Cherry Wine in The Blue Grass. Seems in this world of points that splitting them up might have made more sense.Just saying....Ken

I believe a better punishment for multiple repeat offenders would be to not only ban the trainer for 180 days, but to ban all horses currently trained by him from running for an equal time. This would turn owners away from \"dirty\" trainers and eventually either clean them up or force them to find a new line of work. A win-win for the fans either way....Ken

Taking my shot with American Dubai. He was the only horse to be up on the fast pace in the Southwest and still be around at the wire. A little improve and a more patient ride and maybe I catch big balloons....Ken

Curious, Did you ask the question because his handicapping lacked any reference to TG numbers or because it was the first post in forever that actually dealt with handicapping?

Jerry Brown, Master of the ABC....Always Be Selling.   Well done sir!

Thank you Jerry for being the voice of reason. If this race wasn\'t a biggie nobody on this board would be betting it.

Based on relative values, the Preakness is looking more and more like a pass to me. I\'ll play some horizontals and hope to be alive to one or two in the Preakness.

Based on what I read on the other board, you\'re saying there is an 80% chance you got the derby right and a 20% chance they did.....sounds about right! Seriously though, thanks for posting all of the numbers. It\'s great to be able to go back on all of the races and see where my projections were right and try to figure why a bunch were not..Thanks again, Ken

Pizza, spoken like a true loser.  Sometimes the best horses just win.