Can anyone shed the light on the negative implications associated with Bolt D\' Oro wearing Bell Boots in his gallop/jog this morning?   Watching the Replay on CD and it just doesn\'t seem like a good sign that a horse with a quarter crack in the SA Derby is wearing those now?  

Any thoughts on this issue?

Can someone post an updated Derby odds board as of 4:30 eastern?

If anyone sees what the current odds are for the derby, please post them.

perfect for who?? what pace cenario do you see?

Looks like this guy is going to be 5/2 with all the pre race guarantees Dutrow is giving.

What are his knocks?

Lightly raced, yes, but he appears to be the  lone speed.

Distance limitations?   Yes, he slows down the final quarter but he may be ahead so much it doesn\'t matter (i.e.  Real Quiet).

Post Position?   I can\'t imagine any post hurting his chances with his tactical speed, except for 19 or 20.

Thoughts?

has anyone compared the one mile races run at Oaklawn on Feb. 17 and 18?
Eight Belles ran the first day, 6/5 ths slower than Dennis of Cork, who ran the very next day, but it looks like EB is faster on some of the speed fig sheets.

That is a big difference, to me, in just 24 hours time, to have DC run a full second and one fifth faster at the same distance.

Not sure EB is able to hand the fast pace fractions she is going to see.

Something about EB makes me nervous though.

Does anyone have any expert advice on how to handle Kip Deville with the information being reported that he had \"swelling in  his pastern\" and a \"filling\" was put in it.

His trainer says he is fine and had  a good workout afterwards.  However, I am curious as to whether this is considered significant.

I see this horse having a good trip and he may like softer turf but I am worried about his condition.

Be careful tossing a closer at CD.   He may not have enough to win, but second or third is achievable.  Post positions by HHughes and Bordonora will answer this race.

Here\'s my listing of bad favorites with explanations.  Comments are invited, goal is to throw out the bad one\'s obviously.


Juvenile.

CQuay---Horse will be overbet, looks like a glorified sprinter, and did not run well around two turns.  


Mile:

Aragorn---  Pace will hurt him and his last race is not the type you want going into a major BCUP race.  Can save ground though and that is only plus.

FM Turf:

No Beefs here


Distaff:

Tons of speed here.  FLeet Indian\'s post position will answer this question in my book.

Sprint:

Favorites appear tough.  I learned never to bet this race until PP are drawn. Henny or Bordonora or both will be excluded by the Draw.  Any comments are welcomed on this race.

Turf:

I don\'t like Americans.  They have beaten one another and that\'s it.

Classic:


Strange Race.  Benadini is too easy to pick, Lava Man can\'t handle surface, Invasor never runs a bad race but fitness is question.  Reminds me of 99 at Gulfstream.  

One problem I have is with all of the on the pace horses in here.

Part of me sees a wire to wire winner or a dead closer.

The Classic has to start with Bernadini/Invasor.  If one of them run his race, with the weight allowance and decent post, either is tough.

But, we all remember those that did not run their race in the classic.

Aptitude, I thought, was a lock, he\'s still running

In 99, there were several nice horses that did not run, Awakamatel, Behrens, General Challenge.

In 2000, Tiznow ran his race again when I thought he would bounce.


The negatives of Bernadini are his lack of rest, his lack of testing in big fields, older horses???  Anything else

Invasor, also looks good has rest, never runs a bad race.  

Perhaps Post Position and pace will clear this up some more, but I hate knowing the two favorites are unbeatable.  Somebody help!!!!!!!!!!!!!

These splits look like  a Turf race.   This is why I call this a weird derby.

Looking at past derby\'s you usually had 4 to 6 horses trying to make a move on the turn, which would put more pressure on the 6 f to 1 mile split.  Maybe they slowed down on the Turn and nobody challenged it.  The jocks may have gotten away with something.

I am not ready to give Barbaro the Triple Crown yet, but I would like to see how some of these horses run back at another track before passing judgment on his super horse ability.

I think Derby Day brings out big money from casual bettors who go heavy on the exotics.  If you get a crazy horse, then you see big payoffs, otherwise you don\'t.

I thought the undercard looked chalky so I shied away from pick four\'s and pick three\'s on the derby.  Unfortunately, I did not bet a superfecta as it appeared to be the best bet of the day as long as you liked the 13 and the 2.

JB:

I think Post Position needs to be rethought by trainers.  BD would have been much better off in the 3 hole or 1 hole, same with Lawyer Ron.  

Just don\'t see why anyone would want to subject a horse to the trauma of seeing a calvary of horses to his inside.

I watched dozens of old derbies all month and never saw one like this one and don\'t remember one in last 25 years.

At those odds, Barbaro was a toss for me in win position.  I did like BC second but had him with LR, BD and AP.

I may make  a stand against CAL horses at CD from now on.  Sure I will lose a few derbies but I think CAL horses struggle with CD.  

I\'ve already forgotten this year\'s loss and will concentrate in future years on spreading big time in exotics to protect for those crazy scenarios.