Kasept-

First, you have it backwards. If it is carried on the X chromosome, then a sire that possesses it would transmit it to all his daughters but to none of his sons, since the only sex chromosome a son would get from his sire would be the Y chromosome.

A mare that carries the gene, given that she has two X chromosomes, can have either one or two copies. If she has one copy, then 50% of her offspring will inherit her gene. If she has two copies, then all of her offspring will get one of her copies, and all of her sons would express this gene, since they have only one X chromosome.

Of course, all this supposes that the theory is true in the first place. I challenge you to give me a single citation from a reputable scientific journal that supports this theory. This is just dosage in another emperor\'s suit. The author appears to be the one who has done the research, but has published none of it except in a book she is selling. And the promo refers in an oblique way to some support from Dr. Fregin at Virginia Tech, but provides no details, and he has not published on this either.

While I am sure that there is good research to show that heart size may be related to racing ability, showing heritability is another thing entirely.

I\'d be greatly interested to see a reference with any data on the sex-linked heritability of heart size in horses.

X-factors?  Are you talking about X chromosomes or something else (mitochondrial DNA)?



Post Edited (05-12-05 04:45)

Following are the chart comments (Equibase) for Keeneland on Bluegrass day and the day after (April 16 and 17). There seems to have been a clear advantage to staying wide, with the average winning path looking to be about the four-path. Only Gators and Bears ran credibly from the inside, though that was from the two-path. The pattern held on the following day, where even the winner of the first who cleared the field stayed in the three-path. I have not seen the videos, so perhaps those who have can verify this for me.

My question is, however, that since ground loss adjustments are an important part of the TG numbers, are adjustments made for  biases like this apparent one? For me, it makes Bandini\'s four wide trip a lot less impressive. I\'d be interested in anyone\'s thoughts.

Here are the comments (dirt races only):

April 16


1. Nine Chimes: pressed in hand,3-4w,took over, drew off,mild hand urging
    Native Bull: never far back, between,4w early,all out to save second

2. Middle Earth: pace near rail early,2-3w turn, driving,well clear
    Northern Gent: well placed from start,loomed inside winner,second best

3. Gold Mask: settled,rallied 4w,took over,going away,late hand urging
    Smart Growth: unhurried early,followed winner 5w,no threat,second best
    Broad Base: sluggish start,inside early,5w from backstretch on,no gain

4. Brighton Bull: exchanged bumps start, 4w,wider in lane,steady drive
    June the Tiger: sluggish start,squeezed,6w lane, second best
    Honour Our Troops: outrun for 1/2, raced 4w,maneuvered 8w into lane,gaining late

5. Spun Sugar: rated early,4w,sweeping rally far turn
    Atlas Valley: never far back, bid nearing lane,5w,no match,second best
    Soul Search: unhurried early,bid far turn, angled 5w,no late gain

8. Clock Stopper: settle, rallied 3w, edged off, left handed pressure
    Gators N Bears: set all the pace (from 2 path), held stubbornly, 2nd best

9. Bandini: forwardly 4w, in hand,put to drive 7/16s, drew off,driving
    High Limit: rated 3-4w,bid,led between calls 1/4p,no match,bobble 1/16p
    Closing Argument: bumped foe early, reserved,3w,brush 5/16s, 4-5w,no threat
    Sun King: settled well back, 4w early,5w far turn,bid 3/8s, 7-8w lane,empty



April 17

1. Half Ours: sprinted clear, 3path, within himself, drew off,mild hand urging
    D Denton: chased winner, 4w,bid between calls 1/4p,no match,2nd best


2. Golden Locket: followed 4-5w,took over nearing 1/8p,driving,clear

3. Stanislas: lean in early,bumped, ck,squeezed,rallied 4-5w,driving,held sway

4. Brian\'s Echo: under long hold early,pressed,4w,took over,clear into lane,lasted

5. Abha: confidently ridden 5w,took over 1/4p,drew off,kept to task

7. Pinpoint: carefully handled, 2-3w,control pace,drivi

Is the Pope Catholic?  I don\'t think these guys know what a one-path is. Though usually, very wide trips in turf races are the rule rather than the exception, as the riders are all looking for the fast lane. It is really odd to see some races break out into separate running groups across the track in order to stay on the best ground. Five and six wide trips, and higher, are not at all uncommon. But again, there are very few dirt races here in Europe, so the emphasis is on finding the express lane, not on saving ground. But this generally doesn\'t apply on dirt, except of course with the occasional rail bias. So I would say yes, running on the outside would be SOP, but is usually seen mainly in turf races.

I must have mis-read the Lonestar entry sheet. The DRF entry sheet shows Yesterday getting Lasix and blinkers. Also Ouija Board gets Lasix.

Re: Yesterday:

She was 4th on Arc day in her last at Longchamp, though as noted Walkamia, who was 3rd in that race, ran back to be 2nd in Italy, though the competition was clearly not Gr.1 level. In Yesterday\'s defense, it was only her 2nd outing, closed well, and had some traffic problems. I am puzzled though as to why she won\'t be using Lasix and Bute, which she used in last year\'s BC.

The Euro / lasix angle will be interesting in the Mile.

I did find one more (Hurricane Alan), which I have just added, though I don\'t think it changes the conclusion.

EZGoer-

Of course it matters what other horses did- that\'s the whole basis behind generating variant-based numbers.

To tell the truth, I have actually liked this filly for a while, and won with her in the past, and was looking forward to seeing her in the BC. But what I have seen over the past few weeks is self evident- horses are not running back to the form they displayed at Longchamp. After seeing your comment, I also went back to see how many might have been 2yos- turns out only one of the winners I listed (Ascot Dream) is a 2yo. But, and I think importantly, what I do see now is that out of the six winners on those days, four were fillies and all ran out in their next race. Only Westerner, the older distance horse who did run back to his form, and one other (Chopastair), were males. More than before, I am convinced that Longchamp that day was rock hard (a couple of 7 furlong races went in under 1:20), and that many horses, particularly fillies, may have been negatively affected by it. Especially considering how fast the Arc was run , as well. Might want to take note also that Grey Lilas, who had been pointed for the BC FMT, won on Arc day and was then not entered in the BC.

Maybe Ouija Board will win, if so I will say she is a great filly for having overcome these apparent negatives. But we are all in the prognostication game- trying to see patterns and then bet accordingly. So it does matter what other horses who raced on that day have done since then. This is simply one pattern I\'ve observed here that, if it holds up, will have a major influence on the outcome of one of the BC races. I\'m happy to share this, but everyone is entitled to their own opinion. I\'m out on a limb here too, but all things considered, I simply think she\'s up against it in this race, and especially as a favorite will be a good \"bet against\".

FYI, I\'ve only found two horses from the Arc race who have raced since then. Pride, who I think finished 13th, came back and won a Gr.III race, and Imperial Dancer returned to finish 3rd (dq to 5th) in a GrI race in Italy, which was won by Shirrocco (who interestingly had scratched out of the Arc because his trainer felt the track was too hard).



Post Edited (10-28-04 06:15)

Thanks for asking for more detail about my observation that horses were not running back to their performances on Arc day and the day before. On both days Longchamp was very firm and quite fast. Only one winner was able to repeat, that being Westerner who won a marathon race with little real competition on either day (I think he was 1-10 and then 4-10). The only other notable performance in a return race was Walkamia, third to Alexander Goldrun and Grey Lilas on Arc day. Last Sunday she ran second in a Gr.I stake in Rome, but in truth the competition was really only of Gr. III caliber. Other than those two, just about all the others for whom I could find subsequent races for all finished worse than their previous race. This is not to say, of course, that all horses who raced that day have not done well- several who were unplaced on those days have come back to win.

As far as Ouija Board is concerned, though, I think she is really up against it as I think these data show that few horses were able to run back to their form of the first week of October. Plus she ships a long way, and is a young filly as well. Obviously anything can happen, and if she can overcome these negatives, then she is a truly great horse. But it sure won\'t be with my $$ on her. (Which could mean you might want to go to the windows now).

But for what its worth:

The following table shows horses who raced at Longchamp on Oct 2 and 3rd (Arc day), and how they fared in their subsequent race (through today, Oct 27).

   Horse   Finish-Oct 2+3--- Finish next out   

2Oct

Ascot Dream      1st---      5th
Filmeala      3---      4
Percussionist      3---      6
Viane         1---      10
Ambrose              3---      9
Russian Hill      2---      4
Behkara         3---      2
Hurricane Alan          2---            3
Flip Flop      1---      7
Bright Abundance   3---      5
Buisson Fortin      3---      15

3Oct
Anteoquia      1---      6
Ainebe Crocus      2---      4
Westerner      1---      1   (Gr.I, LCP)
Le Carre      3---      4
Walkamia      3---      2 (Gr.I, Rome)
Yesterday      4---      
Ouija Board      3---      
Chopastair      1---      3



Post Edited (10-28-04 08:37)

I\'m hoping we won\'t need a Ouija Board to figure this one out.

I watched a lot of the Euro racing the past few weeks since the Arc. That day, as well as the day previous, Longchamp was quite firm and the times were the fastest I\'ve seen since June. While you can make a case that she likes  firm turf, and therefore might like Lone Star, I am inclined to view her as a good \"bet against\", especially as one of the favorites.

Nearly all of the horses that ran well on Arc day or the day previous have not been able to maintain their form. I\'m looking for Ouija Board to regress.

Just one caveat. This is the guy who bet Sham against Secretariat, though in my defense that day at Churchill was my first day ever at a Thoroughbred track.

My only comments are:

Thunderello, Cajun Beat, and Volponi.

Merci beaucoup to TG for figures that pointed, at least for me, to a big race for Kickin Kris. Being here in Switzerland, and able to go to the local PMU cafe (French off-track)to wager on the race (just before midnight), this was one of the few US races I have been able to see, much less bet on. And having a separate pool was quite nice, as he went off at 22-1. The lack of good information here contributed, I am sure, as the most popular handicapping paper only publishes the last three lines for each horse.

The excellent performances of the Euro horses was a little puzzling, though a case could bê made for each. The one factor in common, though, was that the ones that did well were all first time Lasix. So I was going to ask if TG had the stat percentages for first time Lasix, and then realized that it was already on the regular ROTW page. Unbelievable (incroyable!!--45% of first time Lasix users run a new top!). Definitely a bit of handicapping knowledge to save for another day, one that I had not paid enough attention to.  

Again- thanks for the numbers. The 22-1 was nice, but not all is so great here in Europe-there is a whopping 35% automatic witholding tax on any wins over 25-1. Kind of puts a damper on exotics betting.

Kingfisher

Jerry-

Thanks for the update. Been doing plenty of research here on French racing. In many respects, folks here use a dartboard approach. The big bet is the Quinte, a \"quintafecta\". Regularly pays six figures, though always with 18 horse fields. But the info available is very sketchy, at best. More later.

Kingfisher

I think you hit on the most important point-  for her last several races, she was averaging ground losses of about 5 lengths. Now she switches to a potential rail trip around one turn. I thought the advantageous post and the move to one turn moved her up by  about 3 points, putting her in the mix if she just pairs up. Had her to win and the exacta, but naturally wish I had backed her more than I did.

But Einstein was in fact quoted as saying that \"God does not play dice with the universe\", implying that natural phenomena follow certain rules, that it is not just chance.

On the other hand, another of his quotes is \"If we knew what we were doing, we wouldn\'t call it research\".

Clearly this is a research project in process, and what is quite enjoyable is that we all get to participate in its development as well as monitoring its progress. But as TGJB said, it won\'t replace handicapping, its just another facet of information to  use to handicap. Ultimately it still all comes down to how each of us processes the information available to us. And each of us gives different weight to different variables, which is the essence of handicapping.