The Future is Now...Again

[TGJB]

You will notice that we have added new studies to the full Thoro-Graph sheets, based on patterns of the figures themselves, starting with the races of 6/27/04. The studies are broken out by age and time of year, but after that it gets a little complicated.

The studies were run using horses that have run at least six times – the three starts of the pattern (0-2-X etc.), plus at least three starts before that, in order to establish an effective previous top to compare to. Each of the last four – the three of the pattern, plus the one being measured – had to be within 42 days of the previous start, and all for the same trainer. The three runs in the pattern and the one being measured all had to be on the same surface (either dirt of turf), and either all sprints (less than a mile) or routes (a mile or more).

The numbers are compared to the "effective top" of the horse, which for the purposes of these studies was defined as the best figure the horse had run in the last 6 starts before the three race pattern began. If the horse runs better than that within the three race pattern, that figure becomes his effective top. Dirt patterns compared the race being studied to the horse's dirt top, turf patterns to his grass top.

Now pay attention, because that was the easy stuff. This is where things get complicated. We do not make distinctions when we output the sheets. In other words, if a horse is coming off an 0-2-X, with the races six months apart, some grass and some dirt, we are printing the 0-2-X stats, even though they don't really apply. We are doing this so you have something to work with, but it means you have to make distinctions. You can't always take the results at face value for every horse – you have to handicap. Was there a significant trainer change that affected the pattern, or affects your opinion about what the horse will run today? An off race on a surface the horse doesn't like last time out? Is the horse heavily raced, making improvement less likely than on average for the pattern?

The patterns shown are the ones for the surface today's race is carded for, regardless of what surface the horse has been running on, and the effective top used for him will be the horse's best number, regardless of surface or distance – this is tricky, and we will revisit the question after we get feedback. The same categories apply as for the figure-based trainer studies – "top" means more than one point better than his previous effective top, "pair" means within a point either way of that effort, "off" means more than one point, but less than four points worse than the effective top, and "X" means worse than that.
 
Let us know what you think.

(See attached sheet. Pattern studies appear right above trainer studies).

[HP]

I\'m assuming these stats apply to the race immediately following the pattern cited in the stat. In other words, in Daydreaming\'s case, McGaughey\'s horses have run 8% new tops after showing this (top-off-off-new top) pattern (time off is not a factor in the stats).

Assuming this is correct:

I wouldn\'t call those 6\'s \"off\" races. I understand that by the stat definition they are \"off.\" I guess the main problem I have is the distance issue (comparing the sprint 4 to the route 6). Why compare the 6\'s to the sprint 4 as opposed to the 2yo route top (9)?

Considering the route 6 was off a substantial layoff, I can\'t say it\'s \"off\" in any way. It\'s apples and oranges compared to that sprint 4 (first time out no less). I guess this is what you mean when you say you still have to handicap.

I think you\'re going to run into this with surfaces too. How about breaking the stat line into two lines:

Overall
Within 1 furlong of today\'s dist. (I mean using the \"previous top\" at today\'s dist.).

If the horse has a mix of turf and dirt starts within the last six races:

Overall
Dirt
Turf

I guess the horses would have to have six or more starts in each of these distances/surfaces? Might not always be possible. If there\'s a contrast, that might be valuable info. I don\'t know how much room you have...

Given the stats, I would bet Daydreaming will run between a 4 and a 6 in this race. However, given the time off, I would take a more charitable view and I think she will either pair up or run no worse than a 3 and change.

HP

[HP]

How would McGaughey\'s stat line look if you ran it just on the pattern of the route races? HP

[TGJB]

In order to get a big enough sampling, you have to limit the number of distinctions you make in the studies. As we said, you are supposed to make distinctions like the ones you cited when analyzing the pattern for yourself-- we don\'t expect anyone to just accept the \"pure\" percentages as applying to every horse.

[HP]

\"In order to get a big enough sampling, you have to limit the number of distinctions you make in the studies.\"

I get this, but I would think it would less of an issue with horses that had a lot of races. That\'s why I said \"might not always be possible.\"

Looks like interesting stuff. Greater minds than mine will have to weigh in... I\'ll cut this off by saying, \"I\'m sure greater minds won\'t be too hard to find.\" Hahaha.

Let\'s go Mets. HP

[dodie]

You\'ve finally done it, Jerry . . .I officially now have TOO MUCH HANDICAPPING INFORMATION.  Yes, I know, if I don\'t like it, don\'t use it.  I\'m sure as I get used to it, and follow the discussions here as well as the insightful comments in the race of the week, I\'ll find it useful.
  The evolution of the TG sheets the last year or two reminds me of what happened with Avalon Hill\'s wargame \"Squadleader\" back in the 80\'s.  The counters and combat results charts started out so simple, straightforward, almost elegant in their ability to communicate so much information in such a small space.  By the time \"Advanced Squadleader\" came out, the 200 page rule book had to be printed in loose leaf format so you could insert the various updates and changes as they came out.  The counters and charts looked like the periodic table of elements on steroids.  The beauty of the original system was all but strangled to death by adding more and more excruciating detail that in the end blinded rather than elucidated.  I\'m afraid the tg\'s are rapidly approaching that point.
  That said, I look forward to the discussions and explanations.  Truth be told, I\'d take a few minutes on the phone discussing a race or a horse\'s line with Alan over more stats any day.

[TGJB]

Ithink if you look at this week\'s ROTW you will see that using the new info is a lot simpler than you think.

[HP]

Daydreaming to win @ 6-1 or more, exacta under Ashado.

Good luck.

HP

[Silver Charm]

Thanks TG for the new product. This looks like an exciting advancement in SHEET handicapping methodology.

The statistics for The King and Stellar Jayne made her a must play in the Mother Goose. She was marginally slower than Ashado and the Pair .. New Top Percentages were 65%. Add in the fact that this Filly somehow was 30-1 and it was time to CRUSH THE RACE.

This was D Waynes fifth win in the Mother Goose which is why he always has been and always will be \"The King\".

Long Live The King.....

[TGJB]

Yeah, this was interesting. The two fastest horses had the worst patterns according to the studies, and both ran out. I didn\'t think there was much value in the race, with the two favorites as the most likely winners (and the guy who did our picks thought so too). I left the office to go for a walk and decided to stop in the local OTB to watch the race, getting there with 5 minutes to post. I ran into a guy who works in the Ragozin office who said they gave her the best number, and although she figured to bounce he was going to bet her. I said we had her a little slower than the fastest ones, but according to our hot new pattern studies... anyway, when we saw the price we both went to the windows to bet her, for completely different reasons. Which goes to show... something.

[Silver Charm]

If it was Len tell him I said hello.

Go dig up Spains Sheet from your archives you will be surprised at what you see. Stellar Jaynes Ky Oaks figure was a complete toss because of how firm they had the track that weekend.....Chilukki Day...haha.

Wayne sure has instilled alot of speed in this Filly in her last two races. Whereas most of her previous races she was lolly gagging around in the back of the pack.

Anyway with the forward moving pattern, odds and pattern percentages you had to bet a little on her. Just look at the ROTW

Also I hope Wayne doesn\'t read this Board because the next time I see him he will probably greet me with....\"Make that Six Mother Goose\"   LOL

I think the pace of that race had something  to do with the outcome. The winner had to be very sharp to outrun Ashado home, but they crawled early and that compromised the chances of a few of the others. That\'s exactly what kept me out of the race. I thought Ashado was overbet based on her figures relative to the others, but she was the only one I was sure would be in a position to win coming home because I expected the pace to be slow.

The winner was very usable at that price, but IMO, she would not have won in an honestly run Grade I race where you would expect everyone to get used to get and maintain position to win.

[Boscar Obarra]

  I had nothing on the race, but another possible + on the winner was the wides in most of her recent races and the poss of a rail trip , I think the rail was playing well.

  Still 29-1 was mighty high.  Lukas doesn\'t have the following he used to I guess, and doesn\'t win much with bombs (3% ?)

[HP]

Stellar Jayne (15-1) ...The study shows this pattern is much more likely to yield a pair-up or forward move than Daydreaming's, and since that last was actually a slight forward move her chances might even be a little better than that.

Pretty impressive demo of the new stuff, to say the least. --HP

[Kingfisher]

I think you hit on the most important point-  for her last several races, she was averaging ground losses of about 5 lengths. Now she switches to a potential rail trip around one turn. I thought the advantageous post and the move to one turn moved her up by  about 3 points, putting her in the mix if she just pairs up. Had her to win and the exacta, but naturally wish I had backed her more than I did.