TGJB,

Obviously respect your opinions as I but your numbers but:

\"banks hill ran exactly back to the figure....\" - then your figure is wrong. that piece of form (with clear sailing between 1,2,3,4,5 finishers - with 2nd to 5th going on to run great races next out) was exceptional and to compare it to an effort where she basically finished in the pack (I believe there were 6/7 horses in the bunch behind starine) is an insult to a great horse who was over the top.

if you think with anticipation could have beaten high chapparal but for the ground loss, then you must have been already in line for the volponi bet at the time.

Mall,

in terms of early speed, my view is that the sprint needs to be handicapped twice - 1. what if they kill each other upfront and 2. what if they don\'t.  Doesn\'t mean you have to bet all the combos (in fact you shouldn\'t) but I think that in exotics you need to play a bit of both with key horses.  as an example at CD 2 years ago this worked beautifully when early speed was diabolical and 8-5 kona beat two late finishers (that were very very playable in the speed self-destructs angle) for a large tri.  last year the speed holds angle would have been succesful (I admit last year I got caught in the hype about everyone cutting their throats and forgot about the speed holds scenario). Maybe they will cut their throats this year but what if they don\'t (check that derby exacta I keep telling myself).

on bonapaw my US experience tells me that I have a slight doubt about him in big fields.  I played him in a large-ish field at SAR last year and he was very disappointing (went too fast early). His big numbers have been in small fields. Maybe not enough to toss him but a lingering doubt nevertheless.

Michael - best at 12/1 with ladbrokes - unfortunately ladbrokes are well known for inside knowledge on o\'brien\'s yard so the fact that he is high with them may mean they know something we don\'t about ROG going for the mile (ladbrokes are the only ones that do not have ROG in the classic betting).

Bill,

I also compliment you for the analysis keep them coming.  Interestingly here in europe good journey has come in for some good money and is now the shortest price of the americans at 10/1.

I have already touted domedriver as my key here and the ground worries me a little more than the LH turn (based on many misspent years I actually think it\'s harder for a horse to go from LH to RH than the other way round). The race you mention against banks hill was a very very good speed figure - in that race he was also clear of best of the best in 3rd (who was beaten nothing by hawk wing and grandera in his next race) and further clear of turtle bow (who ran kazzia close in the flower bowl in her next race).

Michael,

re O\'brien\'s 2 year olds - here they have been getting too much respect all year.  with the mid-summer virus and all that he has not had good 2-year old results. van nistelrooy has been hype galore from the word go - any self respecting bookie has been wanting to lay him.  he has been beaten favorite last two starts (admittedly poor ride in last one)- he\'s good, not great.  jo\'burg was unbeaten last year remember.  As I said hold that tiger looked great in winning and for me he would be the best one on that.  however in the post race interview tabor talked about next year\'s 2000 guineas and the fact that he was not sure he would stay a mile (\"we will try and drop him back if he does not stay\"). you get a colt that is stepping up 2 furlongs and trying dirt for the first time. I don\'t know the US bunch so I\'m flying blind, but I would need a nice price to back them - maybe they will be a price, but last year may skew people\'s thinking too much.

Well, after a few years in the US, living the BC from Europe is quite different. Back on the site to purchase the advances and hope that all the shrewd comments on the board will help me get back in touch with US racing. I am biased now but it looks like the Euros will take home some prizes:

a poor Turf field - high chapparal can bounce slightly from his arc return outing and still win (though falcon flight seems an interesting outsider).

I guess you could question if banks hill is as good as last year but who can forget that win.  kazzia won\'t like the ground and I can\'t believe irrestible jewel can be good enough, given the way bright sky destroyed her last time.

if the rock does not go in the mile, I would still take a euro in domedriver - his last to first finish last time was even more impressive if you consider nothing (and I mean nothing) came from behind that day. that was the kind of acceleration that you need in the mile. if landseer can win in america, domedriver can too, hopefully at a nice price. gossamer needs it soft.

some big figures from the home front in the classic but the giant and sakhee showed that it is possible.  hawk wing must be a big danger - not a real fighter though, but what class (last time below par after returning quickly 2nd off layoff).  the rock should not go here, but he might because of coolmore stud ambitions - how he takes to dirt who can tell.

the juvenile, well o\'brien will send 2 or 3, they wiill probably get too much respect after jo\'burg - but hold that tiger looked great last time

I am not sure belmont is that track (the one that gives a closer a fair chance).  There is no doubt in my mind that a belmont 12f race favors speed in terms of bias - probably outside speed by then.  many people assume that closers will make a big run on the turn and keep coming, but they nearly always flatten out - that distance being a particularly good example of this in the last 2-3 years.

have not read JB analysis yet but straight gin seems a stretch to me.  a pure figure play (perhaps, I remember he had a 2 or something - suckered me into playing him in the bg) but no other evidence to me that he is this class or that he is moving forward.  he was outclassed at op and kee - yes they are speed favoring but he was on or near the lead !  

the other zito horse would interest me more for a big exotic pay-out - think that the lex is underestimated.  EFTGG also had problems before that race and with a photo finish to repent on his resume could figure somewhere. gotta respect the derby horses (excl HH) but will try these two in exotics with them I think.

good analysis - it seems to me that those that skipped the derby lack a bit of class.  Perhaps proud citizen has one more decent number (even if he goes back a little) - after all he\'s only run one race under 4. He ran a 6 at 2 so not out of the question he could hang around this level one more time.

even more than ready ran great in the derby (4th) yet was a sprinter - in class races sometimes you ran out of your skin because of company (I can\'t explain this - but I\'ve seen it). I would bet against came home at 9f in top class company, no doubt in my mind.  he will be 4th or 5th in the breeders cup sprint.

Beyer top for WE (114).  With all that weight (ignored by Beyer) looks like a big number is coming up.

Incidentally, am I the only one who thinks it\'s strange that McCarron will be on Crimson Hero in the Preakness. JDB rode last and it\'s not like he\'s got 3yr old riches.  Either he doesn\'t like his chances or he\'s hoping for a jock change on the big ones.  I say he\'s after MDO ride after Laffitt screwed it up.

I think that you can argue both theories (he won only because of the pace OR that he won so easily that it didn\'t matter)with some validity.  Either way, as I look at the replay it was definitely one weird race (I still expect someone, just anyone, to make some kind of move on the turn - totally baffling).

so many questions to answer: can he hold his form after 3 efforts ? will someone challenge him early ? and if so, will he just rate ?  

I will say this - this horse looks perfect for the belmont if he gets there in shape to run.

Mark,

You\'re probably right we\'re restless, but then again it is clear that the vast majority of people on this board are more into numbers than you are.  You\'ve probably already made your post mortem judgement (using visual clues) and moved on - others may still need \"closure\".  Incidentally I was interested in your comments on how WE looked after the race - I distinctly remember (and this is not hindsight) thinking monarchos looked exhausted after the race last year (it was also hotter).  Then again, I\'ve also seen countless horses train and look like monsters after a big effort and still bounce to the moon, so you never know.  The \"human over-reaction effect\" will ensure that someone challenges WE in the preakness, so we will find out how good he is (it is clear that the same human over-reaction from last year\'s derby ensured that nobody wanted the lead this time - they\'ll go 21 and 44 next year).

and how do you know if a stock is going to go up ?

there are too many variables (age, sex, distance, size of jump, previous reactions, time since race, trainer(sadly), etc etc)in bounces and ultimately you will have to use your judgement to determine the LIKELIHOOD of a bounce and factor that in the price you\'re getting.  We\'ve all seen horses that seemed sure to bounce that didn\'t - it\'s not an exact science.

I\'m guessing WE ran fater than that.  A top class thoroughbred on an easy lead will post a big number - he destroyed them and it\'s hard to believe he didn\'t better his SPT effort.

And when we were being hard on Mark O\' for repent not closing on WE, perhaps we were looking at the  derby 1-2 (injury permitting).