Some very good horses...

[derby1592]

...have won the Kentucky Derby virtually wire-to-wire including:

Winning Colors
Spend A Buck
Seattle Slew
Bold Forbes
Riva Ridge
Swaps
Count Fleet
War Admiral

Some not-as-good horses have also turned the trick:

Kauai King
Dark Star
Jet Pilot
Hoop Jr
Johnstown


Is War Emblem another War Admiral, Count Fleet, Swaps, or Seattle Slew?

Or

Is he another Hoop Jr, Jet Pilot, Dark Star or Kauai King?

I know it is tempting to immediately conclude that War Emblem is a play against in the Preakness by arguing that he has had everything in his favor in his last 3 big efforts and that those efforts are bound to take their toll. That may be true, but keep the following points in mind.

- He has finished up the final 1/4 in his last 2 races very impressively.

- He is not your typical early-developing speed-ball that tries to stretch out to the Derby distance. He has never raced in a sprint. He had an ideal late 2yo top figure of 8 earned in a route (fast but not too fast). He has even won after being 5th of 6th at the first call in a previous route race.

- He has already beaten all the top 3yos.

- He was just recently taken into the barn of one of the most successful Triple  Crown trainers of all time. Baffert has been dominant since he entered the Derby scene in 1996 and both his previous Derby winners went on to win the Preakness (as did Point Given last year).

- Baffert is not stupid and is unlikely to have War Emblem get caught up in a speed duel in the Preakness. This horse has shown the ability to rate and even the ability to sit behind horses and still finish strong. Don\'t automatically assume that War Emblem will be sent to the lead to duel with Booklet and possibly others including Medaglio D\'Oro.

- War Emblem may even offer decent value in the Preakness. It is not unusual to see a longshot Derby winner that was viewed as having a very favorable trip go off as the 3rd or 4th choice in the Preakness. In such cases, a \"rough trip\" Derby also ran (e.g., Medaglio D\'Oro) often becomes the hot favorite and there is usually a fresh newcomer that also draws heavy support (e.g., Sunday Break).

Chris

[Michael D.]

You make some very intelligent points here, WE fans have plenty of reason to be proud of the Derby win. Still, I find BY FAR the most important factors here to be the Churchill track condition on Saturday, and the easy lead. WE is a fanststic horse when fiven an easy lead on a speed favoring strip, not likely to be the conditions in his next few races. I simply must take a stand against this horse, even if he does go off at 3-1 or 7-2 in the Preakness.

[tonyk]

Pimlico is no real hotbed for closers either ,it should be interesting.

[derby1592]

Well,

War Emblem is definitely looking more like War Admiral, Count Fleet, Swaps, or Seattle Slew than like Hoop Jr, Jet Pilot, Dark Star or Kauai King (see copy of previous, 5/7 post below). Notice that there are several TC winners on the list of good wire-to-wire Derby winners. Will we be adding another name to that list this year?

On a related topic:

Here is a list of the last 5 horses to win the first 2 legs of the TC and how they fared in the Belmont.

1987, Alysheba ran 4th to Bet Twice
1989, Sunday Silence ran second to Easy Goer
1997, Silver Charm ran second to Touch Gold
1998, Real Quiet ran second to Victory Gallop
1999, Charismatic ran third to Lemon Drop Kid

Do you notice any trend other than the fact that all of them lost in the Belmont?

Here is a hint - look at the horses that won the Belmont in those years. See a common thread in most of them?

That\'s right - Bet Twice, Easy Goer and Victory Gallop all finished 2nd in both the Derby and the Preakness and then turned the tables in the Belmont.

Now technically speaking, Proud Citizen ran 3rd in the Preakness but he probably ran the best or second-best figure in the race (brilliant post position pick Wayne). Could we end up seeing a horse named \"Proud Citizen\" win New York\'s biggest race in its first running post 9/11??

Too much karma for me...

Chris

*****

Previous message:
Some very good horses...have won the Kentucky Derby virtually wire-to-wire including:

Winning Colors
Spend A Buck
Seattle Slew
Bold Forbes
Riva Ridge
Swaps
Count Fleet
War Admiral

Some not-as-good horses have also turned the trick:

Kauai King
Dark Star
Jet Pilot
Hoop Jr
Johnstown


Is War Emblem another War Admiral, Count Fleet, Swaps, or Seattle Slew?

Or

Is he another Hoop Jr, Jet Pilot, Dark Star or Kauai King?

I know it is tempting to immediately conclude that War Emblem is a play against in the Preakness by arguing that he has had everything in his favor in his last 3 big efforts and that those efforts are bound to take their toll. That may be true, but keep the following points in mind.

- He has finished up the final 1/4 in his last 2 races very impressively.

- He is not your typical early-developing speed-ball that tries to stretch out to the Derby distance. He has never raced in a sprint. He had an ideal late 2yo top figure of 8 earned in a route (fast but not too fast). He has even won after being 5th of 6 at the first call in a previous route race.

- He has already beaten all the top 3yos.

- He was just recently taken into the barn of one of the most successful Triple Crown trainers of all time. Baffert has been dominant since he entered the Derby scene in 1996 and both his previous Derby winners went on to win the Preakness (as did Point Given last year).

- Baffert is not stupid and is unlikely to have War Emblem get caught up in a speed duel in the Preakness. This horse has shown the ability to rate and even the ability to sit behind horses and still finish strong. Don\'t automatically assume that War Emblem will be sent to the lead to duel with Booklet and possibly others including Medaglio D\'Oro.

- War Emblem may even offer decent value in the Preakness. It is not unusual to see a longshot Derby winner that was viewed as having a very favorable trip go off as the 3rd or 4th choice in the Preakness. In such cases, a \"rough trip\" Derby also ran (e.g., Medaglio D\'Oro) often becomes the hot favorite and there is usually a fresh newcomer that also draws heavy support (e.g., Sunday Break).

Chris

[Michael D.]

One of the better posts I have seen on the board, especially since it came before the Preakness. I took a stand against WE in the Preakness, trying to beat him with Md\'O and PC. As it turned out, Md\'O was just a bad bet because of the low odds. As for PC, I am still impressed with the horse, and will probably have him on a few of my Belmont tickets. Now to WE.....I made the point that WE was a fantastic horse when free on the lead over a speed favoring strip. I surely underestimated the horse. He has one quality that Slew, Spend a Buck and a few of the others have, he has the ability to make his own race. He is not at the mercy of the pace; he has enough class to overcome any potential pace scenerio. The question I still have with the horse, however, is his ability to draw off in the stretch when faced with a track that gives the stalking/closing type horses a fair chance to run him down. I am still reluctant to put my full backing behind this horse running a mile and a half at Belmont at 3-5.
Furthermore, I still believe that his horse will have a difficult time competing with the big boys in the fall...... Having said all that, given WE\'s class and speed, if he does manage to get the mile and a half at Belmont in a decent time, I will very happy to include him on the list of great horses, right there with Secretariat, Slew, and Affirmed.

[Michael D.]

As for early thoughts on the Belmont, given Chris\' excellent analysis, a horse that might figure is Perfect Drift. He did not run in the Preakness, but could have run second in the Derby without the trouble, and being a son of Dynaformer, he should get the mile and a half (wasn\'t there also a horse with some Naskra blood who won the Belmont a few years back?)............. Again, well done Chris, great handicapping there.

[nunzio]

Michael,


I think you are right in saying WE is a nice
horse, but comparing him to Seattle Slew
or Secretariat is not only premature, but in my opinion, way too flattering.  I can\'t even mention Affirmed because  I\'ve always been an Alydar fan so my objectivity regarding him is blurred.

I was lucky enough to have WE in the derby; not because I though he was the best horse, rather because he was the best VALUE.  I was
hoping the Maryland crowd would think he was fluke and let him get away, they didn\'t.

I\'d like to see a triple crown winner so I am rooting for him.

Good Luck,
Nunzio

[Jersey City Jake]

I don\'t think there have been any 12 furlong races on the dirt at Belmont yet this meet, but still I\'ve been keeping a log of what\'s going on there and there seems to be a strong speed bias for the longer races there so far.  

Remember Commendable\'s Belmont?

[fastspeed]

I am not sure belmont is that track (the one that gives a closer a fair chance).  There is no doubt in my mind that a belmont 12f race favors speed in terms of bias - probably outside speed by then.  many people assume that closers will make a big run on the turn and keep coming, but they nearly always flatten out - that distance being a particularly good example of this in the last 2-3 years.

[MO]

No horse has won the Triple Crown without training in New York. Exception was Affirmed who trained as a 2yo at Saratoga.

War Emblem follows the same path as both of Bafferts horses who have won the first 2 legs and lost the Belmont in that they trained at Churchill.

Silver Charm would have won with a better ride. Real Quiet was beaten by a better horse. War Emblem has no competition. Racing could use a TC winner. Interesting. Can\'t wait to see the TG figs for the Preakness.

MO

[JR]

If the War Emblem that ran in Chicago, Kentucky and Maryland shows up in New York, he has a very good chance to win the race. But I still regard his line as volatile. I asked JB before the Preakness if he had ever before seen a line like War Emblem\'s. He responded, \"Charismatic.\" And it is true, Charismatic jumped out of his skin to win the Lexington, duplicated that performance in the Derby, won the Preakness (don\'t have the figure) and broke down in the Belmont. Fortunately, he was saved.

[Michael D.]

Nunzio,

My post actually says I will take a stand against WE in the Belmont, and do not yet consider him in the \"great\" category. My point was that if the horse does run a very strong mile and a half at Belmont, I will then give him his due and include him with the great ones.. To fastspeed, I think it is fair to say that the Belmont surface, more than any other, gives every horse in the race a fair shot at winning, and by the time the Belmont rolls around, you will have read over a hundred stories of how closers never win the race. Two of my biggest bets ever were on Colonial Affair and Victory Gallop, horses who made nice late runs. I think it is fair to say that the best horse usually wins the Belmont Stakes, speed horse or closer.