Thanks Ill-bred- at 5-6/1 he\'d key some nice returns. I think we can count on Gio and Eienstein to prop up value on any Euro of choice.

Lost Cause Wrote:
> Isn\'t the hot weather usually bad for the euro
> shippers?  They don\'t look exceptionally strong
> either.


That is the conventional wisdom - but you know how that can work out. I know it\'s been mentioned often when Breeders\' Cup is run in warmer climates. Can\'t say as I\'ve tracked the actual results however.  Euros that haven\'t looked that strong over there have come into AP and dusted our best before at decent odds. Tough call Lost Cause but they\'re worth a close look in the paddock and post-parade.

Hey guys, fwiw, the weather is expected to be scorching- mid 90\'s on Saturday. Have had no rain for several weeks- some forecast today- but they keep that course well-watered. I agree that the Euros have dominated here at nice odds as the U.S bettors bias makes for nice overlays. Horses that have excelled on California Turf have been dismal underlays; the grass there is like a putting green vs. ARL where it\'s more like the first cut of rough at a major. Just a few angles to help you whittle away. I haven\'t looked at the races yet- but will be spying for Euro keys. The heat issue makes early choices dicey. Good luck all.

Let me add my thanks TGAB-JB et al. Hadn\'t planned to play today- but as fate would have it I went out to AP this afternoon so the ROTW selection was timely. Tri/Ex and Place $ on Chester Super if Silverfoot gets up. Much appreciated.

dannyboy135 Wrote:
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> I along with a group of horsemen tried to
> syndicate Old Fashioned and bring him to
> Louisiana.  fortunately or unfortunately, the deal
> couldn\'t be put together. Louisiana breeders need
> not only a credential ed stallion but one whose
> foals will remain sound and produce breeders
> awards. While at the time I was tremendously
> disappointed it may have been a blessing to miss
> the Old Fashioned opportunity.
 

Two other talented USong\'s of recent note- Midshipman and Eight Belles. I think you should thank your lucky stars Danny. Seems the good & fast ones don\'t have the limbs to handle the stress.

martoon Wrote:
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> Are any of these Unbridled\'s Song\'s making it to
> race as 5 year olds or even 4 yo?  Wow are they
> fragile..

USong is a fragile bloodline. I wouldn\'t touch one.
Old Fashioned was another US that didn\'t make it past the preps.
They are several others if you look back.

rosewood Wrote:
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> Don\'t want to spread a rumor;there was talk today
> that Dunkirk may have suffered a fracture. Haven\'t
> seen confirmed or denied; don\'t know how bad if it
> is indeed true.

Confirmed:

http://www.drf.com/news/article/104494.html

I was being tongue-in-cheek JB. I know the \'evidence\' is merely anectdotal at this point, but does bear noting. I agree 100% that a comprehensive broad-spectrum uniform blood-test (if such a thing exists) is way over due. Absent that, as you stated, we\'re all left guessing.

TGJB Wrote:
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> What do Dunkirk, Flying Private and GGG all have
> in common?
>
> All ran stinkers at CD Derby weekend and moved up
> 20 lengths next time out.
>
> Hmmmmm.....

JB- surely you\'re not suggesting KY\'s medication policy is now that much superior to MD and NY, are you? Oh pshaw! It has to be the fantastic abilities of Messrs Pletcher, Lukas and Baffert to correct their previous training errors no? ;-0

Reviewing JB\'s comments on the race, I can\'t help but note that his \"Bottom Line\" calls out 3 horses with 4 races each; CM,DK,SB.  Do you pure fig fanciers factor this into your analysis? Going 12f the first Saturday in June, I\'m just not comfortable with any of their foundation for this grind. If this was the KY Derby, we\'d be asking that question, so why not now?

I am inclined to use CM underneath all things considered, but he would surprise me crossing the wire first, I had LDK in \'99- I like this colt don\'t get me wrong, but I\'m a bit surprised at the abundance of adulation here from the price-hunters. Thoughts?

Thanks for your thoughts TreadHead. He either moves up or he doesn\'t. As I said, I\'m factoring in Zito-intention here and that has me thinking this horse has a forward move coming second off the lay. Also ME has been a better horse since the blinks went on and winning back-to-back after finally breaking his maiden; he\'s showing development figs notwithstanding. The Mineshaft bloodline adds confidence; horses running a zero at 9 and 10f doesn\'t mean they\'ll repeat it at 12f. I\'ll take 80-1 if its offered,- ha! But I expect closer to 20 and I prefer that to sweating out CM at 5/2. Good luck to you.

TGJB Wrote:
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> Zito-- he clearly points horses for the Belmont,
> and they have fired off some awful looking lines,
> and more importantly, run new tops. I don\'t
> remember any Lukas horses running new tops in the
> Belmont, but I didn\'t go back and look. I did with
> Zito. And it makes it hard to throw his horses out
> just because their patterns are weak. That doesn\'t
> mean I\'m going to key them or play them heavy, but
> I\'m going to use them in exotics. Lukas too,
> underneath.

I\'m going for a key on Miner\'s Escape. Definitely some straight win money on this attractive price shot. I don\'t think his line looks awful, and I disagree that he\'s going backward on Saturday. As you noted, Zito points to these and we shouldn\'t ignore that fact when assessing the pattern. I\'m using his other runner too- maybe double key them in a tri w/All- based on Zito (and LaPenta) history.
Spring 3yos...this one moving up another 2-3 points at 15-1 is worth my play. He\'s just getting good now- I think that is intentional.

OK I found the sheets and looked at the last 10. I didn\'t do the math, but anectdotal evidence shows a \'2\' can be good enough. And a horse that ran a \'2\' can jump to a \'0\' and win as well.  That\'s all I was looking for. Noticed all the horses sure have gotten considerably faster since Lemon Drop Kid. He\'d be laughed off the page with this years\' field.

What has been the average winning fig for the Bel Stks over the past 10yrs?

Pardon my laziness if this info is available here, but I\'m lazy. ;-)

covelj70 Wrote:
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> I don\'t care for Dunkirk at all as I don\'t think
> he wants any part of 1 1/2 miles but I have been
> wrong before.

I don\'t think Dunkirk wants any part of top class company- he\'s a temperamental \'wussy\' sort, imo. Another Pletcher \'phenom\'he reminds me of, is the much-ballyhooed Bandini, whom I also \'hated\'. I too have been wrong before.