Mall

I am looking for a reputable REBATE house myself.
I find that when going over my records for the year that I was barely in the black but not by enough to boast about, with the rebates I would think about boasting.  If it wasn\'t for the WAR EMBLEM score in the Derby, I\'d of been in the red.... Can you recommend a rebate house ?

Nunzio

To my extended famliy of thoroughbred racing fans and handicappers; I wish you all good health, better concentration when handicapping, and more photos that go your way !

Nunzio

I have noticed for years how Beyer Figures change from race to race.  Its almost like
he takes his \"best guess\", looks a future results, and than \"shoe-horns\" the figure to
reflect what has subsequently happened.  

Bizarre....

As you might guess, I a not a fan of his work.  I find it comical that he gave WAR EMBLEM the best figure of any 3yo going into the Derby and doesn\'t select him to even hit the board.  This is the guy who also doesn\'t beleive in bounce ?  Very odd....

Nunzio

...AND BY THE TIME THAT INITIAL RACE FOR CHILUCCI WAS ON THE BOTTOM OF HER PP\'S, BEYER
HAD PEARED DOWN HER FIGURE T ABOUT A 96.  EACH TIME SHE RAN THE NUMBER KEPT GETTING LOWER & LOWER.  WHATS UP WITH THAT ?

NUNZIO

Thanks mark,  I should know better than to post after getting off the Red eye......

Hi fellas, been away and just got a chance to read the discussion of the ROTW.  I noticed that no one mentioned how CONGAREE was training (he threw down some serious 3/4 mi works) and we know whe liked the surface having beat Medaglia D\'Ora in the WM in the spring.  I\'m not saying I would have bet him
but I am surprised not too many folks gave him much of a shot.  I saw the race on TVG and I was asking myself if Congaree is a 1 turn mile specialist because he certainly exploded from the 1/4 pole to the wire.

Nunzio

woops....

DISTAFF
-------

This is a very deep field, only FARDA AMIGA & STARRER would be considered minor upsets:

The post position draw sets the race up for AZERI & IMPERIAL GESTURE to be on the lead with TAKE CHARGE LADY stalking in close attendance.  IMPERIAL GESTURE does not
look to be as good around two turns (see how she ran last year at SA around two turns sandwiched between a pair of one turn efforts).  TAKE CHARGE LADY ran her
best race 3rd start off a layoff at KEE in the spring and looks to be set for another top effort.  If she rates kindly
behind the pace setters she could get the jump on the closers (SUMMER COLONY and MANDY\'s GOLD).  SUMMER COLONY looks as though
her best efforts have come with a little more time between races than the three weeks she is being afforded coming into this race.
MANDY\'s GOLD is an improving filly.  Her connections have taught her to rate (see her 51.3 breeze at DEL) by not asking her for too much speed in her workouts.  If she can handle her first start around two turns
she could be right there at a price.  AZERI comes into this race on a six race winning streak but her training regiment is very questionable. Two 3f breezes to prepare for a race at 1 1/8 miles against the best field she has faced all year is puzzling.




JUVENILLE FILLIES
-----------------

Once again the post position draw helps shed some light on how this race will be run.
HUMOUROUS LADY is a quick sprinter who draws on the extreme outside.  Since she only has
one gear she will be winging early to try & get to the rail entering the first turn.
Unfortunately, SANTA CATARINA drew the  inside post.  The pace in this race is likely to be uncontested.  SANTA CATARINA has never been around two turns, which is an
obstacle for her to overcome, but she can rate (see her 7f race).  She also had a snappy workout recently at SA which signals she is on top of her game.  If SANTA CATARINA is on top of her game, COMPOSURE is as well having outworked her stable mate while earning a bullet for her efforts.  She is improving by leaps and bounds in every start, has won around two turns, and Bob Baffert is not new to getting his young horses to peak at the right time.
STORM FLAG FLYING has exhibited the most talent of any of these 2yo fillies but she is unproven around two turns so once again taking a short price on her is very difficult
to swallow.



MILE
----

The pace of this race does not appear as if it will be too quick early.  In keeping
with the post position theme, LANDALEER drawing post 13 appears to have set things
up nicely for BEAT HOLLOW and FORBIDDEN APPLE who appear to have the best early lick of the American horses.  Even though BEAT HOLLOW has run faster races going longer distances, Bobby Frankel decided on the MILE instead of the 1 1/2 mile Breeders cup race.  Take note of his sharp recent 4f breeze as well as how
he trained up to his most recent  mile race at KEE.  He improved his early speed
dramatically in his most recent race and will be the early pace-setter if no other
horse is hell bent on going to the front. FORBIDDEN APPLE ran 2nd in last years
edition of the BC Mile and will be right on the pace throughout.   GOOD JOURNEY is
extremely consistent and will be very competitive.  He is training superbly
and would benefit most from a fast early pace. GREEN FEE ran the race of his life last out but now he picks up thirteen pounds off that effort and will likely not be able to reproduce that performance against this quality of a field.  LANDSEER ran very well in his first US start beating older horses (he is a 3yo). He has enough early speed to put himself in position early and if he isn\'t forced to go very wide he could make an impact again.  TOUCH OF THE BLUES has run two very powerful races this year.
His race at WO (1 turn) can be excused.  He showed a bit more pace in his last out and
that could be signaling he is on the improve.  He also draws an outside post that will require him to likely cover more ground but he has done that successfully in the past.  ROCK OF  GIBRALTAR actually beat BANKS HILL over in EUROPE so he is no slouch and will likely be the post time favorite.


SPRINT
------

BONAPAW is very consistent and very fast when he gets to set an early pace that is not
very fast.  Unfortunately for BONAPAW, the early pace will almost certainly be very fast
and he has not faired well under those circumstances in the past.  Since he cannot rate and there are horses with better early speed both inside and outside of him his task is an arduous one.  CARSON HOLLOW will add fuel to the early fire and has been training very well unfortunately this 3yo filly will likely be done at the 1/4 pole.  
DISTURBINGTHEPEACE has been
freshened for 9 weeks and his best race ever came after a seven week respite so it
appears that Darrel Vienna is trying to recreate the scenario which carried
DISTURBINGTHEPEACE to a  career best effort. The biggest question regarding
DISTURBINGTHEPEACE is how far off the pace he will be. KALOOKAN QUEEN is trying to beat
males again as she did last out but you will note that her worst race was outside
California which will be the case here. KONA GOLD runs well fresh but has a lost a few
lengths over the past year and a half. ORIENTATE has not shown that he can pass a horse from the 3/8 pole to the wire.  Fortunately he is fast enough to not have to pass horses but in a race of this magnitude the pace is guaranteed to be swift and for ORIENTATE to make the lead he will need to earn it. SWEPT OVERBOARD is the most talented horse in the race but what happened last out ? A very good rule of thumb regarding a sub-par effort
from a quality horse is to excuse it if the connections are competent and the price is
right. Interestingly enough, Corey Nakatani has never won aboard SWEPT OVERBOARD.   SWEPT OVERBOARD does his best running when he is allowed to  fall well behind early but he has been too close to the pace recently and hasn\'t offered the same late kick that he is capable of.  XTRA HEAT is ultra-consistent and has very good gate speed.  She is capable of running a 1/2 mile faster than any horse in this race and from post 13 its is very likely that she will have to in order to get the lead.


FILLY & MARE TURF
-----------------

BANKS HILL is a deserving favorite.  Bailey gets the mount after Nakatani was schooled by Stevens & Venezuela in her most
recent race at SA. STARINE is a quality mare but she has yet to exhibit the same level of talent at distances over 1 1/8 mi.  
GOLDEN APPLES is very talented and has won over the AP turf course as well.
DUBLINO has run two impressive races against 3yo\'s and now tries to compete
with her elders. She is dropping 3 pounds off of her last two victories and
shows a snappy 3f drill on the dirt equaling the time that AZERI ran on that
day/distance. As for the Europeans, GOSSAMER got within 2 lengths of BANKS
HILL but that was at a mile and ISLINGTON has been very consistent on anything
but soft turf; make note of their pre-race appearance.


JUVENILLE
---------
If this race were around one turn WHWHYWHY would be a very tough horse to beat
but this race is around two turns and a 1/8 of a mile further than he has competed
thus far. His 5f bullet work over the AP strip signals he is sharp and his subsequent
5f breeze was intended to get him to relax because he will need to carry his speed for
1 1/8 mi to get the money.  Since he is breaking from the rail there is little doubt as to how he will be ridden; he will be on the lead or in very close attendance.  BULL
MARKET, SKY MESA, and ZAVATA will be the other horses likely to make the pace.  SKY
MESA does not look like the extra 1/16 of a mile will move him forward.  BULL MARKET
doesn\'t look like the extra 1/16 mile will hurt him based on how he finished up in his
most recent start.  KAFWAIN made a sustained run in his last race from the 1/2 mile pole
to the 1/8 pole and hung on to win; but just barely.
The fact that he didn\'t sustain his run is a bit of a concern.  LISTEN INDY made a
significant improvement in his last race and has trained smartly since then.  He is
bred more than adequately to handle the extra 1/16 of a mile. MOST FEARED also looks
to be improving, he has win over the AP surface, has been training brilliantly since
his most recent win and is undefeated around two turns.  However, he has only raced
as far as a mile so he is being asked to travel an 1/8 mi further than he has done
previously. TOCCET is steadily improving, has won around two turns and had a 7f breeze
subsequent to his last race to get him ready for this race.  VINDICATION found himself
making the lead easily after a sweeping move but the pace in that race was significantly
slower than will be the case here.  He has trained very well since then and his
experience around two turns will surely benefit him.  WANDO toyed with Canada's best
2yo\'s but he is picking up 7 pounds off of that race. He will likely be further behind
than he was in his most recent race where the pace was much slower than he\'ll be facing here.  ZAVATA is a sprinter who will surely be part the early pace but will likely be through after 3/4 mile.  



TURF
----

Of all the Breeders Cup races, this is the one that shows a field of horses who are as
evenly matched (American horses) as you will find.
DENON, BALLINGARY, THE TIN MAN, and WITH ANTICIPATION have all exhibited an almost identical level of talent recently.  FALCON FLIGHT has as well but that was last year and is a few lengths slower this year.  GOLAN & HIGH CHAPARRAL are the European contingents.  Note that HIGH CHAPARRAL was five lengths better than BALLINGARY back in June but that was over a yielding turf course.  The key to these marathons is almost always the pace scenario.  DENON, & WITH ANTICIPATION have shown the ability to run honest fractions and still be around at th efinish with THE TIN MAN and PERFECT SOUL a noth behind.  DENON drew post one so if he chooses to be the pace maker he will get the best opportunity.  However, THE TIN MAN\'s
most recent breeze certainly points towards him being asked to set the pace.  Since he draws the extreme outside post he will likely be asked for some run to secure an inside position. Only THE TIN MAN looks like he needs to be on or very close to the pace at the 1 1/2 mi distance.  All of the other contenders can rate behind the pace and that is an advantage. WITH ANTICIPATION looks like he doesn\'t care for a turf course with some give in it which is likely why he put forth a sub-par effort last time.  His most recent breeze  appears to be a bit slower than he had been doing (even though it was around the dogs) when he was at his best. DENON looks like he will get the best trip, is very consistent, and is very tractable.


CLASSIC
-------

The old expression of "pace makes the race" certainly fits the mold for this event.
WAR EMBLEM, MEDAGLIA D\'ORO & E DUBAI certainly look like they will insure a contested pace scenario.  To add fuel to the fire, neither of them have done there best running from off the pace and all of their best races were on the lead.  Do you think the pace is likely to be too quick ?  It certainly appears to be the case.  CAME HOME has steadily improved in each of his last three races and has trained superbly since his last race.  Since he is a 3yo he is getting 5 pounds from his elders.  Can you believe that EVENING ATTIRE went off at almost 10-1 winning the Jockey Gold Cup ?  What was the NY crowd thinking ?  No one in this field has exhibited more talent than EVENING ATTIRE and he has had his most recent breeze over the AP surface. MILWAUKEE BREW ran dismally at AP in his only start there and looks to be tailing off but he has had two snappy drills in preparation for this and would definitely benefit from a very fast pace given his running style if he is on his game.  CAME HOME draws an outside post that will likely cause him to lose some ground.  EVENING ATTIRE looks to have a slight edge over CAME HOME and MEDAGLIA D\'ORO.

GOOD LUCK to everyone.

Nunzio

Alydar,

Its been way to hectic around here, lots of distractions.... but when BC rolls around I need to get more in tune.  I\'ll let you know who I like when the big day gets closer.

Thanks,
Nunzio

I went down to the local racetrack,
To get my horse jones filled,
I was standin\' in line with Dr. Jerry,
The man he did cash a single bet,
So we decided that we would split a wager,
My favorite combo a four horse box....


How have you been Alydar ?

I\'m starting to get BC fever.  There doesn\'t seem to be a miler from the US that stick out in the mile turf race.  Looks like the Euro\'s will have an edge there.

Nunzio

Jerry,

Do you often find that people (horsemen) respect your opinion enough to ask for it but when it comes to actually paying for your services your opinions magically becomes not so important ?

Nunzio

I guess old age is catching up to me,
soon I\'ll have a winning ticket and not know where to cash it.  Why I thought the race was the Woodward is anyones guess,
does anyone know where I can cash my ticket ?
I\'ve fallen and I can\'t get up....

Nunzio

PS  Abreeze ran an awesome race as well.

I can\'t play $-Bill, he is a nice horse but geez, get him a win already, put him where he can win, I just don\'t see him winning this, especially if the track is wet.

Nunzio

This has got to be the cheeziest G-I
race I have seen in some time.  There is not alot of pace in here and ABREEZE is
almost sure to be gunning for the lead from that post.  If Evening Attire puts himself
in the catbirds seat, he might win it.
I\'ll see if I get 6-1 or better.  Gander looks like he could make some noise as well.

Good Luck,
Nunzio

DD would hav taken it to WE, MD is on the upswing while WE looks to still be a nice horse but not as good as MD right now.

Nunzio