LEFT BANK / JERRY BROWN

[HP]

I notice you left out Bailey\'s ROI, which I\'m sure is lower than JR\'s. This is not a function of Bailey\'s skill, but rather a function of how the public bets and the quality of the horses they ride (other examples would be Day at Churchill and Baze in No. Cal.). You wouldn\'t say Bailey\'s lower ROI means he\'s not as good as JR, would you? As a stat, this leaves something to be desired. They bet everything Bailey rides. They don\'t play JR quite like that yet. It\'s not a direct skill-to-ROI correlation. HP

[Michael D.]

I think I mentioned three times that the fantastic Bailey wagering opportunities ended years ago. He is the best, and everybody knows it. I also mentioned that the public has not yet noticed the brilliance of JR, and therefore the betting opportunities are still there. Funny you mention Day, one of the jockeys who sees fit to rate every horse he rides. His ROI is lower than everybodies except Mike Luzzi. Hey, I have no problem with sheet players relying solely on the numbers, and not moving up horses that JR, Desormeaux, and V Espinoza ride..... more money for me.
Nice discussion though, really shows some of the differences between die hard sheets players and the players who put more focus on other factors. I think we agree on one thing though, the new TG sheets give info that everybody can use.

[HP]

You\'re patting yourself on the back a little bit there cowboy. I think you can assume that people who use the figs take a look at who\'s riding and factor it in a bit, even if they put the numbers first. They may even look at some crazy things like pace, trainers and breeding.

You must hit a pretty high percentage of the bets you make because the JohnnyV horses at Saratoga aren\'t exactly flying under the radar on the toteboard. He\'s not in Bailey-ville yet, but he\'s on his way. HP

[Michael D.]

Sorry, I thought you said that adding in the jockey performance actually hurts your handicapping. Wait................ you did say that. I would argue that adding in the jockey performance to the figures helps me make money at the track....... The facts are simple; Bailey and Velazquez have had a major impact on about 80% of the stakes races in NY over the last few months. I simply can not understand how one could discuss some of these stakes races without mentioning the impact they had on the outcome, and the tote board.(positive or negative)

[HP]

Discussion of the impact on the toteboard? Okay. The impact of Bailey on the toteboard is negative for his mount and only serves to increase value elsewhere. Velazquez, same thing to a lesser degree. Figure if Velazquez is riding a horse that should be 6-1 he\'ll be 4-1. With Bailey it\'s the difference between 2-1 and 6/5. If this is your main angle and you\'ve figured out how to make money on it I\'m happy for you. I guess if you hit enough of JohnnyV\'s $12 winners you\'ll do alright. HP

[Michael D.]

What about the original point of disagreement; do you think it is important to add in the performance of the jockeys to the numbers when handicapping a horse race? In the end, the answer is of course no, as supply and demand always puts the proper value on everything. But in the end, we will all be dead. As for now, with all of the figures and info out there, you better be able to determine the CURRENT value of the different jockeys. You need to be aware of the breeding angles, the trainer angles, and different track conditions. These factors are constantly changing, and the handicappers who are able to judge the value of each at their current levels will make money. Who knows, maybe Bailey right now is the best bet in all of sports? The average guy will look at his 1.6 ROI and say he is a human money grinding machine. But how about tomorrow? Will he get up tomorrow and be so focused, so much more intense than the rest, that he actually adds value? Maybe. Will Prado gain so much confidence in his rail skimming turf rides that he starts to dominate many of the turf races? Maybe. Is JJerkens training his horses better than anybody right now? Maybe. Is Henning? Maybe. Will the Sar track favor speed tomorrow? Maybe. I do not pretend to have the anwsers to all of these questions, but I guarantee you one thing; the guy who has the most answers to these types of questions will make the most money, because he will have the sheets AND all of this info. So I will end my commentary by saying this: try to factor everything in as you see it today, because we will all be long gone by the time everything averages out.

[dpatent1]

Many a ruined day trader (and horseplayer) has followed this method, Michael.  God bless all of you.

[Michael D.]

 yes, good point. but if you think about it, many were also ruined by NOT following this method..................... off to the Spa, good luck everybody!

[ExPlayer]

    There are infinitely more ruined INVESTORS than ruined daytraders.

     Frankly, how can anyone argue that a Chavez or JV when they are on their game, do not actually move horses up?

      Are they winning 4 and 5 races in a day because the agent\'s dart was extra sharp that card?

      Been watching races for over 30 years, and while it\'s not the key to the kingdom, selective jockycapping will move up your game.

       If all the jockeys mounts are overbet, then no, you can\'t make any money there, but that is a fairly rare occurance.

        In fact, Iv\'e seen many a time where a HOT jock wins his 3rd or 4th race on the card and it pays MORE than is warranted.  Maybe all the wise guys betting against?

[HP]

Since this exchange began I\'ve been following the results. I saw a grand total of one horse that Velazquez rode that finished in the money where it looked like the horse was a square price (about 5 or 6-1, as it should have been). I would say the category of \'jockeycapping\' would include figuring out who the top jocks are that aren\'t getting bet like crazy. I would definitely include Chavez, Day and Prado in this category at the Spa. There\'s a bunch of others that won\'t affect my wagers and there are a few who are real negatives, but if the horse fits I might still use them. One look through the prices this week and I can\'t imagine how anyone is making money on this \'great jockey\' or JV angle, even if he rides 4 winners a day. The hot guy kills your price. HP

[Jersey City Jake]

Actually, I believe JD Bailey has a positive ROI at the Spa this meet.  In other words, don\'t just assume every Bailey nag is an underlay.

[Michael D.]

HP,
Yesterday you mentioned that Prado and Day are among the jockeys that you think can provide value at this Spa meet. Nice call, if you paid some attention to your own instincts on jockeys, you could have made some good money today. Use all of your knowledge, the game is too tough to leave some of it out when you handicap.

[nunzio]

DD would hav taken it to WE, MD is on the upswing while WE looks to still be a nice horse but not as good as MD right now.

Nunzio

[HP]

MD, Unfotunately I\'m working while others enjoy the parade. I did notice those results. Good luck to you! HP

[tonyk]

I think you have to see how the race sets up before giving weight to which jockeys to use or which to toss . I like to stay open minded with most jocks ,I will use Davis or Luzzi if I feel I get good value on them ,hell if the situation warrants I\'d use Clive Beech .I think trainers more critical because they know what their horses are up for and they know what level of jock can get it done for them .Some trainers are gamblers themselves and are trying to get value for their hard work .One example I have seen is when Mott has a horse that JD dosen\'t ride ,he\'ll use Day or Castellano or whomever you get good prices on these horses because the public thinks if JD\'s in the race and he\'s not on Mott\'s horse then the horse is a second stringer .Cordero used to say that he was the worst handicapper in the world .I would love to have insight to stable intent more than any info there is .By the way does anyone know what # Left Bank ran in the Whitney ?