It\'s time for Burnham Square to exact some Derby revenge. On figs going into the Derby BS was on par with Sovereignty, Journalism and Baeza. But for his godawful trip he\'d have been in the mix at the wire. At 5/1- it\'s time for me to recoup the losses.  He ran well in the Matt Winn at CD last out- but 1 1/16th is too short for him. 9f should suffice on Saturday- then on to the Travers

I am betting BS to win
Big exacta Burnie over East Avenue-
repeat of the Bluegrass on Repeat Weekend!😀

Thanks for the heads up Bit. My odds just got cut in half ugh.
Ah well double my bets! lol

Mini Belmont Stakes today in this G3 going 1 1/16
A field of 7 featuring 5 Derby runners:

1.Gaming
Florent Geroux   5-1

2. Final Gambit
Flavien Prat 5-2

3. Chunk of Gold
Jareth Loveberry 6-1

4. Just a Fair Shake
Jaime Rodriguez   15-1

5. Burnham Square
Brian J. Hernandez, Jr.   7-2

6.Coal Battle
Corey J. Lanerie 9-2

7. East Avenue
Luis Saez 4-1

Money should be spread nicely among these also-rans. And the other two will also get their action. Burnham Square for me with both hands- may the racing gods at CD treat me kindly this time!

But how many of these in the Derby are because they dont like slop? And how many are due to troubled trips? And ten furlongs? Some of these figs will be forgiven in the future. Did all the good horses run bad races? Did Owen Almighty discover his surface?

TGJB- for the main track rail I am very interested to see what fig you assign to Burnham Square. Rail aside, do you account for troubled trips?
I hope you give him a solid 6 or 7! ðŸ˜,, Because those of us with eyes to see, will make some hay from that in his next out!

Brian Hernandez Jr. (Jockey, Burnham Square, sixth) â€" “He actually ran a really, really good race. I had a rough trip around going into the second turn because of Admire Daytona. He stopped pretty badly, and I had to steady pretty hard. We lost all momentum but then he ran on big down the lane just to be sixth.”

Yeah like you said T, the fucking Japanese horse!
Killed all chance. Killed my super if he only ran 4th
I will never know. Piss poor racing luck.

Good pics- good luck Michael! Luxor and Baeza belong. Have fun!

So on balance, we can consider ourselves somewhat fortunate? that the Winner of the FL Derby, and the 1-2 Finishers of the Wood are out of this race.
And the second place horse in the SAD drew in at double digits.

So you can look at what is left. BG 1-2, FL -2nd, LAD, 1-2-3 and all the others that were also-rans in their preps. No real advantage from the CD races so far- some speed held, some closers closed.

If you take the class, on form, with good TG figs- you can build some very viable plays with great prices.  I tried- hope I succeeded! Burnie Baeza Sov- with Journey in 4th would have me dancing!

Good luck to all!

In a word Jerry; Drainage!
water pools on the inside grass.
Better trips on the crown.

Thanks Tony- I\'m also lamenting the Oaks- turn the page today- but he slop remains the agitator.  I\'m not going to play the full card at CD either. Watched the first 3 and the track is playing fair- good! Lemon Muffin from the clouds after missing the break badly- Yay for the closers!

I am about to plug in all my Derby action, and get my version of the Juelp going; Woodford Reserve, Crushed Ice, Skip the syrup and the minty sprigs. Rinse and repeat.

Upon further review- I must play a second minor key in Luxor Cafe. 4-3-1-0 on off tracks. Raced in big fields and carried 128# in his last! So he\'s in the mix with Burnie and the other fine horseflesh.

Thank you in advance to Janis Joplin! :-)

Well gents, this quagmire at CD changes everything- I feel like my 10 yr. old self whose little league game got rained out. I HATE the slop! All the buildup and preconceived wagers are out the window and it is time for plan B. The figs and their form aren\'t as reliable, and the first time sloppers will freak- but in what direction!? But I digress...

So Burnham Square will be my key. On figs- paired 4\'s then 1.25 in the BG- he is the best value in the field at 15-1 as I write. I have him 3x in the futures pools averaging 27-1 so no need for a win wager today at less than. Wilkes has been there with Street Sense and Unbridled. He brought Burnie along with slow and steady progression and he\'s sitting on his best today! Work of the week- and the only one who went out at CD on the less than fast-dry track to do it. I hope his 424 Tomlinsin # bears fruit!

Hernandez can sit the trip as he showed us last year. He should tuck in for a nice position from the now 8-hole and take some dirt from the inside speed. \"...saved ground both turns, circled field, rallied willingly, drew off...\" Derby chart dreamin..

So I will rely on Burnie and his team- playing him up and down in the exotics with the best horses because \'the good ones can run on anything\' right fellas?  That\'s my strategy for the Big One; build some lottery tickets and pray with a nice bourbon in one hand and cigar in the other.

Who are the other good ones to wheel with him? For my money- dismissing most of the expected early speed there are 8 others: 7- Luxor (3-4 on wet must use!) 8-Journey, (Journey-Burnie box?), 12- East Ave. the quality of the expected pace and he did not stop at the BG wire, 13- Pub and 14- Tiz cuz Assmussen\'s pretty good and these closers should be running late, 17- Sandman- biggest underlay cuz of the Tiktok kid connection, 18- Sov- all Mott class but Godawful\'s will not win this year, and 21- Baeza who anywhere near is current odds is phenomenal value relative to the fave! Just for yuks- a small exacta saver Baffy/Lukas 1-5 box in case speed rules and pace does not collapse

Did I mention I hate the slop!? Good luck to all and may they all come home safely! And GO Burnie!

Brian rode him for the first time in the Bluegrass. Edgar Zayas previously in FLA. Brian is no-fear. Look at the trip he gave Mystik Dan last year! He\'s a Louisiana boy- Brian \"Borel\" lol

Caution on outright tossing those Rich. Dosage is but one tool to help predict proclivity for endurance. Our eyes at 9f is another. I used to chat w/Steve Roman back in the day at the Blood-Horse forum. He knows his system is imperfect- AND the biggest flaw/caveat- the Chef-De-Race sires that are used to calculate the DI/CD etc. never account for the current direct sire, damsire, and rarely either their grandsires. That\'s why the numbers change down the line; say i.e. in 10 yrs if Liam\'s Map is getting winners at 9-12f, he and his ancestors can be added to the recipe.

They schooled him on the rail in his Sat work. And he ran the rail & saved ground in his races- whether he liked it or not. He\'s going to take dirt for sure. Maybe he\'s the type of critter that just gets pissed off then once swung out wide he says- OK now I\'ll show ya! . The one thing Wilkes said pre- Holy Bull I will never forget: \'He just never gets tired\'. What else do you want from a 10f horse?