Some final Derby Observations

[Dudley2]

So on balance, we can consider ourselves somewhat fortunate? that the Winner of the FL Derby, and the 1-2 Finishers of the Wood are out of this race.
And the second place horse in the SAD drew in at double digits.

So you can look at what is left. BG 1-2, FL -2nd, LAD, 1-2-3 and all the others that were also-rans in their preps. No real advantage from the CD races so far- some speed held, some closers closed.

If you take the class, on form, with good TG figs- you can build some very viable plays with great prices.  I tried- hope I succeeded! Burnie Baeza Sov- with Journey in 4th would have me dancing!

Good luck to all!

[Michael D.]

My final -

Sovereignty - even with the scratch of the Baffert, there\'s enough speed here to get a strung out field, giving runners like Sovereignty a decent chance. Ran well over the track at two, and got down to a 1.5 in the FOY. Tough post for 9f at GP last with a new jock, and I doubt Mott had the screws tightened. Loads of stamina on bottom. If the trip is ok,I think he runs a new top here and 9-1 looks good.


Luxor Cafe - just looks like a real nice horse, and I like the pedigree. No bargain at 8-1 but dangerous.

Baeza - I was hoping he wouldn\'t draw in as I had no idea what to do with him. But at 17-1, with the # power and Pratt up, he\'s a use.

Journalism - has no chinks and obviously looks good here. I think Sovereignty and Luxor have a better shot at running a new top, but he\'ll be in the mix.


Sovereignty and Luxor are my top two, but I won\'t let Journalism or Baeza blow up my tickets.

[Dudley2]

Good pics- good luck Michael! Luxor and Baeza belong. Have fun!

[T Severini]

Was struggling with Grande and Rodriquez, was leaning against both with trepidation. Pretty sure TGJB would have tagged Grande a Regression with the Pattern and workout pattern.

Watching the rain carefully...it may be over now. Track seems to still be holding moisture due to 60 degrees and cloud cover. Starting to look a little muddy and may be getting a bit sticky now.  Am still leaning towards attempting to be part of an East Avenue shocker and a genuinely wet track would release any inhibitions, but I don\'t think we are going to get that. I know its called a \"3\" though I think it\'s a little better than that, likely that he needed a race and if the track doesn\'t stick to him, a little move forward would make him tough if he doesn\'t get involved in ding dong with Citizen Bull. I think hes a competitive horse and is covered up.

The Whitman horse is my come from behind horse I\'ll have him with Journalism, Baeza, East Avenue. I\'m divided between the two on which I favor more, but consider him my key.

East Avenue and Whitham

[Roman]

I used East Avenue instead of Luxor Cafe.
Great job on your selections and handicapping.

[Michael D.]

Thanks Roman. An unusual year where there really were some serious overlays/underlays.