Then your B+ field just got run over by a D- horse. That was the point. The races - the Derby and all its preps - are staged every year. Not all their winners are equal. Some are better than others. And the 2022 crop of 3 years olds is - at best - ordinary. And that\'s probably coming down on the more charitable side.

I used to work in racing for 20 years, and left it long ago completely. Eric Reed trained in the Midwest, and I was working as a grunt in the PR department of River Downs when one of his fillies won a small 2YO stake. I had to interview him for the weekly TV show. He\'s not an easy interview. He can be condescending. Racing offices in the Midwest have had to deal with a lot of nagging demands he\'s always got. But one thing he wasn\'t, and isn\'t, is one of these crooks whose horses suddenly turn into world beaters on the backstretches of Beulah Park. There are many other worse trainers in the 90s who had these kinds of reversals. He\'s not one of them. His results - over time - have been fairly steady.

The truth of what happened is probably simpler to understand: this year\'s Derby horses are just below par. There\'s a traditional standard for Derby caliber, and consciously or not we all know it. Not all Derby winners or Derby fields are at or above such a standard. For every Triple Crown winner - or horse that wins 2/3 of the Triple Crown - there are Dust Commanders, Cannonades, Mine That Birds, Kauai Kings, Proud Clarions, and now Rich Strikes. This batch of 2022 Derby prep winners is just below what the traditional Derby standard is. It\'s no more complicated than that, IMHO. Take Zandon. The Bluegrass was by far the weakest prep - only 1 GSW in the field. And 3 out, Zandon had every horse in front of him - 10 of them. In less than 3 furlongs he ran past all of them. Years in the business tells me when a horse can run down 10 rivals in less then 3/8 to win a graded stakes going away, one of two things is true: either this is a rare talent of horse; or the 10 he runs over are of no account. Time will prove the latter will be true long before the former. Zandon and Epicenter came through and had no excuses, especially the former. With a quarter to run, the race was theirs to decide. In hindsight, Epicenter being closer to the ridiculous pace probably did more to wobble his legs late because he hadn\'t run in 6 weeks - which is too long to be idle for a race like this. Zandon is the one who had no excuse. Oddly, Mo Donegal raced side-by-side with the winner all down the backside, yet he wheeled out far to the outside, when you wonder what would have happened had he kept his position. But overall, the bottom line is this: the 2022 Derby was below what we normally think of as Derby standard. The reverse is true of the Oaks, which was well above a traditional Oaks standard. If you\'re Lukas, I\'m thinking you\'re probably lining up a van to Baltimore.

KHRC statement:

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/250053/khrc-outlines-procedures-following-failed-drug-test?utm_source=BHTW&utm_medium=social

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I have no dog in this fight. But someone please
> explain to me why a guy would use a drug
>
> a) that doesn\'t move a horse up
>
> b) that he knows there\'s a test for
>
> c) because he\'s had a positive for it before,
> after which he swore publicly they would never
> allow it in the barn again.
>
> Walk me through the risk/reward on this. I have no
> idea whether Baffert is using something, but if he
> is it ain\'t this stuff. He\'s not an idiot.


Then let\'s reverse your scenario. A trainer who\'s had 3 Derby winners in 5 years gets exposed with two of them having to face doping issues, along with Gamine in the Oaks. If this drug is as innocuous as you suggest, why is it prohibited to the extent it\'s got its own test to detect it? And since its prohibited everywhere, not just in Kentucky, why would that be if it offers no assistance to performance anyway? That the same guy - who just went through months of trying to shake off the medication rap of Justify - turns up with another positive in the Derby, let\'s call it an overall pattern that any common sense suggests is \"suspicious\" (and that\'s being charitable). As to your statement about Baffert not being an idiot in this case because you suggest he\'s too smart to get caught with this...I\'ll offer a scenario to prove this in fact makes him the biggest idiot for the reason you cite.

The KHRC is going to have to disqualify Medina Spirit because the horse is in violation of their rules governing permissive use medication - full stop. That means his owners lose the purse money. They now get zero. If the KHRC doesn\'t disqualify Medina Spirit, what do you think the other owners of the runners up will do? They\'ll go straight to court, and it will be an open and shut case. The 2nd-6th place owners all stand to get much more money by getting Medina Spirit disqualified and redistributing the purse. To avoid the protracted court battle and it\'s attendant terrible publicity, the KHRC will almost be forced to disqualify to get the thing shut down now, because the last thing they want is to uphold Medina Spirit as the winner and then have a judge toss the whole thing out. They end up looking stupid, and worse, it can make the KHRC look they they are part of the corruption. Not to mention, what do you think Pimlico is facing now? They have to decide what to do - allow Baffert and all the horrible press of all his doped steeds come to Maryland? The MD Racing Commission will need guidance from the KHRC - will Kentucky suspend Baffert for his overall pattern of violations in Kentucky\'s two biggest races in 3 of the last 5 years? ALL of this fallout from a guy you say gives an innocuous prohibited substance he knows they test for that won\'t help his horse win.

Now tell us again how stupid Baffert ain\'t. If they disqualify via KHRC or a judge, he will have cost the owner a ton of money. That qualifies as an idiot in my book.

Not sure I buy that. Baffert and Smith go back a long time. McKinzie didn\'t lose because of a ride by Smith. He\'s ridden a lot more poorly than that. I think JB might be spot on about Baffert and the BC in general: his horses won\'t necessarily fire. And Smith knows it.

Why?

I only bought the PP\'s for Saturday. But after listening to the seminar, I went back and something struck as more than odd about...McKinzie. Here is a horse - on paper at least - who looks just plain better than the rest. Having a great year. So I wondered when I saw this: McKinzie has had one rider for the last 2 years. Mike Smith. For the Classic? Mckinzie gets...Rosario. WTF?

Mike Smith is on Yoshida. This was stunning to me in light of what seminar indicated about Baffert horses as a whole. Smith gets off the Classic favorite to ride a horse in Yoshida who\'s winless this year. McKinzie ran in the Classic last year and was up the track in 12th at 7-2. You could probably say Smith knows this horse just doesn\'t have 10 furlongs in him. Which is a good assumption to make. But...

In an undercard race, Baffert has comebacking Roadster - once his main Derby horse this year - at 7-5. Smith had been on him 4 of 5 starts. Saturday? The NY based Irad Ortiz will sit his ass on Roadster for the first time. While Smith sits in the jocks room. Thinking Smith could be the idicator that the Baffert horses might be a pass on Saturday.