EVERYBODY KNOWS...

[JohnTChance]

A favorite song by Leonard Cohen:

EVERYBODY KNOWS

Everybody knows that the dice are loaded
Everybody rolls with their fingers crossed
Everybody knows the war is over
Everybody knows the good guys lost
Everybody knows the fight was fixed
The poor stay poor, the rich get rich, that's how it goes
Everybody knows

Everybody knows that the boat is leaking
Everybody knows the captain lied
Everybody got this broken feeling
Like their father or their dog just died
Everybody talking to their pockets
Everybody wants a box of chocolates
And a log-stem rose
Everybody knows

Everybody who saw the overhead shot of the Kentucky Derby winner zooming past the field, like the rest of the horses were tied to a post, was in shock. But then we ask: Why? Why did this colt improve 12 to 18 lengths, like he was shot out of a cannon, to do what he did?

I woke up this morning to read rationalizations in THE ATHLETIC: Aha! The winners' sire, KEEN ICE beat the great AMERICAN PHAROAH! His mother was a champion in Canada! And then I read the worst thing people say: " Well... that's racing!" Unfortunately, they say the same thing when breakdowns on the track occur: "Hey it's just one o dem things." Wrong.

There's a valid reason why this happened: HE WAS INJECTED BEFORE THE RACE WITH SOMETHING STRONG THAT PROVOKED HIM. No one will suggest it because they can't prove it (with a video on YouTube). We can\'t quite touch or feel the answer. But everybody knows.

[TGJB]

Great song. But a one off jump up is not the pattern of a guy doing something. Especially a jump up in the most scrutinized race in the year. Now, if you wanted to argue that's why so many DON'T run their race...

Check out Famous Blue Raincoat, the Jennifer Warnes album where she covers Cohen's songs, including Everybody Knows.

Cohen was supposedly at the Warren Beatty level with women.

[smithkent]

If you're right, they will find it in the post race testing- Baffert got nailed for picogram quantities remember.  That's one trillionth of a gram.

No- horse racing is a non-deterministic event.  We spend a lot of time on the data- trying to predict the future by studying the past.  But the game involves randomness and chaos too- that's why you get results like yesterday

Long ago I told myself to always include bets with the longest shot on the board.  Sadly, yesterday I didn't follow that principle...

[Socalman3]

TGJB Wrote:
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> Now, if you wanted to argue that's why so many
> DON'T run their race...
>

Is this idea that all the top horses had been running under aggressive treatments where withdrawal was at the last possible moment and that in this race, they withdrew earlier with an extra margin so nobody would be this year\'s Baffert? if that is the case, then the Top horses all probably went back a little and this horse\'s jump up from pairing up his 2yo top coupled with a good trip was enough to get there.

It is sort of like a lasix off situation -- wish i had thought about this before the race.

[jerry]

A one off jump up in the most scrutinized race of the year, which is laughable in and of itself considering the winners of 3 out of the last 4 were trained by a guy who's been ruled off of Churchill Downs for drug positives in the derby and the other one has either been, will be or should be banned from the sport for life for drugging his horses and bragging about it. So what if they caught them. Does wonders for my confidence and nothing for my bankroll. How many times do we need to see this plot before we guess the ending? The sport is either dirty and unpredictable or clean and unpredictable. Take your pick. Just not with my money.

[jerry]

Great. So now we're incorporating chaos theory into our handicapping. Good luck with that one.

[johnnym]

When I saw the winner go savage on the out pony after the race we all joked he is on a cycle of testosterone.

Lots of sour grapes this morning.

Last 1/2 mile in a swift 52 seconds if I read the charts correctly.

Only 364 days!

[TGJB]

I think you missed the one off part.

[jerry]

You're right. I did.

[Roman]

How about the first quarter in 21 and 3, half in 45 and change, wicked pace!
Plus the 2 pace setting jockeys were first time derby starters, after watching the last few derbies thought they could go out & walk the dog on the lead. Can\'t wait to see the figs, figure a lot of off and x\'s , just like every other derby, with rich strike the only one running a new top?

[Fairmount1]

JohnTChance,

I am normally one of the first people to call out a situation where I think that something that wasn\'t above board happens in a race.  And everyone is entitled to their opinion.  But I take a very different view than \"he was injected before the race with something strong\" that provoked him as you wrote.

Eric Reed is 0 for 47 last 5 years in nongraded stakes.  He was 0 for 4 in graded stakes before yesterday in that time period. Some would say this supports your position.  And while I understand that I think it supports my view also.  

He is a trainer on paper with absolutely no chance it seems against the supertrainers with those kind of stats. So how could a guy like that win a race against the very best?  While you think he did something nefarious, I certainly think it is quite the opposite.

As JB stated, this race, esp after last year\'s positive test on the winner, was probably very highly scrutinized and the horses were probably watched CLOSELY for the days leading up to it.  My view is that you saw a CLEAN race.  One where there was no Re-breaking by super trainer horses.  And where were the other closers in the race who should have also been picking up the pieces?  Maybe their super trainers just did not have them ready which is shocking b/c nearly all of them came into the race training super and they couldn\'t have looked any better, right?  Maybe when a few super trainers were not able to ply their trade as they normally do, their horses did not fire.  

A mile and a quarter dirt race run in clean conditions might have exposed who can really train a horse a bit and might have exposed who has other edges they didn\'t or more likely couldn\'t use yesterday in that race in particular.  Good horses, good trainers, and good jockeys can come from anywhere.  Or at least they used to.  But in the past several years, no one can compete with the supertrainers by and large in graded stakes.  But maybe if the races were absolutely CLEAN, you can see others that can win races.  

Interesting that Jason Cook got a win yesterday also on the card in a restricted Stakes.  He has not even started a horse in a stakes race the last 5 years except for Three Techniques in his last 3 starts.  A 10 percent trainer the last 5 years overall.  I guess your view is that Everyone Knows what happened in that race also.  But maybe these races in Kentucky are starting to have a more level playing field?  

On Friday, Lukas won the Kentucky Oaks with Secret Oath.  Excluding her two graded stakes wins this year, he has not won a graded stakes since April of 2018. (Four years basically)  The past 5 years he is 3 for 72 if you don\'t count Secret Oath\'s graded stakes attempts this year.  

The CDI evil empire is not a team to cheer for often; but I believe they are trying to CLEAN up the game as evidenced by low percentage stakes guys getting some wins the last 2 days.  I have other reasons I won\'t list here dating further back that indicate this as well.  

Bottom line:  I don\'t think Reed acted improperly to make it to the winners circle.  There was a fast pace, his horse was far back, the other super trainers horses with closers \"didn\'t fire,\" he got a perfect ride for Leon, and poly to dirt move worked also as someone mentioned has been a hot angle lately for improving horses and it cost many of us a lot of money at the gambling windows getting by the 3 and the 10.  I tip my cap to the winners and say Congrats until a postive test comes forward or some other evidence that the guy took an edge.

[sekrah]

Great post Fairmount and I\'m in agreement. I don\'t think the 9 for Strike Rich\'s last race was fair either. He closed well into a slow paced poly race and IMO, that was a move forward in my book which made him live for another move forward. I\'m not red-boarding, he was still too slow for me to use him any which way, but where most of the field ran very inefficient fractions, the hyper fast pace definitely gave him a chance. Slow the first two quarter miles down by 1/5th second each and Rich Strike misses the board and we\'re having a different discussion. Rich Strike went out in :49, came home in :50. He didn\'t hit any turbo button. He was the classic sustained closer into a wipeout pace.

[voicemale]

I used to work in racing for 20 years, and left it long ago completely. Eric Reed trained in the Midwest, and I was working as a grunt in the PR department of River Downs when one of his fillies won a small 2YO stake. I had to interview him for the weekly TV show. He\'s not an easy interview. He can be condescending. Racing offices in the Midwest have had to deal with a lot of nagging demands he\'s always got. But one thing he wasn\'t, and isn\'t, is one of these crooks whose horses suddenly turn into world beaters on the backstretches of Beulah Park. There are many other worse trainers in the 90s who had these kinds of reversals. He\'s not one of them. His results - over time - have been fairly steady.

The truth of what happened is probably simpler to understand: this year\'s Derby horses are just below par. There\'s a traditional standard for Derby caliber, and consciously or not we all know it. Not all Derby winners or Derby fields are at or above such a standard. For every Triple Crown winner - or horse that wins 2/3 of the Triple Crown - there are Dust Commanders, Cannonades, Mine That Birds, Kauai Kings, Proud Clarions, and now Rich Strikes. This batch of 2022 Derby prep winners is just below what the traditional Derby standard is. It\'s no more complicated than that, IMHO. Take Zandon. The Bluegrass was by far the weakest prep - only 1 GSW in the field. And 3 out, Zandon had every horse in front of him - 10 of them. In less than 3 furlongs he ran past all of them. Years in the business tells me when a horse can run down 10 rivals in less then 3/8 to win a graded stakes going away, one of two things is true: either this is a rare talent of horse; or the 10 he runs over are of no account. Time will prove the latter will be true long before the former. Zandon and Epicenter came through and had no excuses, especially the former. With a quarter to run, the race was theirs to decide. In hindsight, Epicenter being closer to the ridiculous pace probably did more to wobble his legs late because he hadn\'t run in 6 weeks - which is too long to be idle for a race like this. Zandon is the one who had no excuse. Oddly, Mo Donegal raced side-by-side with the winner all down the backside, yet he wheeled out far to the outside, when you wonder what would have happened had he kept his position. But overall, the bottom line is this: the 2022 Derby was below what we normally think of as Derby standard. The reverse is true of the Oaks, which was well above a traditional Oaks standard. If you\'re Lukas, I\'m thinking you\'re probably lining up a van to Baltimore.

[P-Dub]

jerry Wrote:
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> Great. So now we're incorporating chaos theory
> into our handicapping. Good luck with that one.


Thats why they invented the all button.

Chaos happens in all aspects of gambling

Its never going to be a perfect math equation.

[johnnym]

A different perspective I did not think about.
Well put.