Diodoro Suspended Sentence

I agree that no matter what time is set as the final closing time for betting, money is going to come in bundles right up until the off. If you are smarter than I am, or start with more money than I do, or some combination of the two or some other factor leads you to handicap better or bet more efficiently than I do, I can live with it. The unfairness is exactly as TGJB said â€" apparently direct access to pools and the ability to see the odds and place bets (robotically) far closer to the off than a non-robotic bettor could dream of. That the size of one\'s bets dictates that one gets privileged access that others do not (and indeed the efforts made to keep hushed up the very fact that this privileged access is provided) is what is unfair. How many milliseconds does it take between the time the starter\'s finger starts to press down on the gate opening button and the time his finger is fully pressed and the gate opens? How many bets can the CRW lot get down in that time? Changes in the odds couldn\'t be displayed to the public anywhere near that fast, let alone a bet be put through.

And it is not just here. Obviously, most of the money bet on Irish and British racing is done via bookmakers or on the exchanges, but we here can only bet via their Tote systems. (The only place where I routinely do not see the big late fluctuations is on the French tote.) The proportion of money bet too late to be reflected in the posted odds in Irish and British races until after the race starts is such that using the posted tote odds at any time during the run-up to the race to assess the betting is useless (especially in Ireland where there is less liquidity). One has to approach the race assuming that the bookmaker odds shown by Oddschecker or at the Racing Post or other media will be generally reflected in the closing tote odds, except that short-priced favorites will generally be bet down shorter. I have assumed that this is bookmakers using the tote to cover their liabilities, the same way they do on the exchanges. But are CRW teams actively betting on racing there? The conditions (horse population and movement between courses, ground conditions, course layouts) are less static there than anywhere else, but there is plenty of money being bet.

And that\'s not to mention the issues they\'ve had over there with bettors flying drones over and near racecourses in an effort to get live pictures to beat the delayed feed shown on their TV channels. Doesn\'t TVG / Betfair offer in-running betting on their New Jersey exchange? (Is this connected or pooled together with the main exchange in Britain?) Since the TVG feed on my TV is always a second or two behind the track feeds shown on the NYRA website, I assume that someone must be cleaning up pretty handsomely.

Apologies if this is too far off-topic. Good luck to anyone playing Royal Ascot this week.

LA Times article from 1988

Run down from Aidan O\'Brien on his BC intended runners: https://www.racingpost.com/news/news/derby-joint-favourites-to-give-in-form-o-brien-strong-hand-in-racing-post-trophy/305664

Among others, Ulysses and Marsha are definites assuming no mishaps; Ribchester is possible but may go to Japan for their big mile race later in November instead; and Real Steel from Japan is a possible for the Mile, but haven\'t heard any recent updates.

Notice included on the Overnights sheet for this Thursday:
\"Attention Trainers: The new turf course at Aqueduct will allow us to run turf sprints at this upcoming meet, but we are restricted to one per day. Due to this restriction there will be NO turf sprint claiming races written at the upcoming Aqueduct meet.\"

Tavasco,

“this horse is s/b” â€" can you translate the s/b? Thanks.

“Do you like front runners on tracks that are not fast?” On a grass course, yes. If the grass course is firm, the horses race on top of the ground rather than through it (obviously). The softer it gets, the deeper the runners sink into the ground, which will blunt the speed of their finishing kick. Since a lot of grass races are run with a slowish early pace (especially compared with dirt races) with an anticipation of a quickening 3-2F out to sprint home, the inability to quicken at the same rate late on to chase a moderate pace favors the front runner who can maintain his fractions. The fact that the courses in North America are so turning and short-stretched in nature I think helps as well, since if it is harder to accelerate in general on softer ground, it will be that much more difficult on a sharp turn, and the short stretch leaves less time to make up the difference.

Obviously, different horses will sink into the soft ground to different extents, depending partly on their hoof, their stride, but especially on their weight â€" the heavier the horse, the more they generally sink in, so a lighter built horse can often take to soft ground better. Something the  Mig pointed out just before Found beat Golden Horn in the Breeders Cup Turf is that this often favors fillies and mares, since they are typically lighter built than males.

Macagone at Aqueduct is almost the perfect storm â€" agile horse who takes turns well, not heavily built, generally a front runner …. I think he’s won his last 4 races at Aqueduct on less than firm ground.

In this race, Chocolate Ride does not have a great record on less than firm, although one of those was at 12F, not really his bailiwick. Plueven has a good record on softer turf though, so he would be hard to ignore if that is in fact the ground. Western Reserve and Kalamos both also have some modestly favorable form on less than firm, so its hard to argue with your analysis.

Decision taken by the jockeys: http://www.drf.com/news/rain-wipes-out-much-saturday-card-wonderment-wins-dancin-renee-stakes

Apparently https://www.racingpost.com/news/international/mullins-pair-head-four-strong-european-challenge/288752 the top 3 in the Belmont Gold Cup qualify for the Melbourne Cup, so some of the others are aiming for that as well. That has surely helped to improve the field, but I hadn\'t seen it reported anywhere else.

No no ….. you might have something there ….. interesting comment from the trainer because Maggie commented that she thought he was calmer, less wound up than in prior starts ….. Saturday was the second time I\'d seen him in the flesh, the first time being for the Pilgrim last October ….. he was washed out that day but in fairness it was a muggy day ….. Saturday he was relatively calm and not sweaty ….. definitely rated more kindly Saturday once they got to the backstretch …. presumably he\'ll point to the Belmont Derby …… be interesting to see …… he doesn\'t seem to want to sit behind others ….. presumably Coolmore will send something over for that …… maybe the 5th out of the Prix du Jockey Club, him being by War Front …… Willie Mullins did his homework with the jockey bookings for the Gold Cup ….. fun job I\'m sure for JB doing the figuring for Clondaw Warrior and his 3 mile hurdling form ….. did run well at Arlington last year though …. Wicklow Brave the high weight but if he can sit forward and not be too wide, will take a real SOB to pass him

\"Separate, non-comingled pool\"  http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/221762/epicharis-begins-journey-to-belmont-park

Generally speaking, if you could know everything about the horse before putting in a claim .... there would be fewer claims .... Do you have a trainer lined up? If so, she or he ought to be able to fill you in. If not ... maybe you want to look at that first. Here is a link https://www.gaming.ny.gov/pdf/legal/New%20York%20State%20Gaming%20Commission%20rules%20Chapter%20I%20,Subchapter%20A%20(Thoroughbred%20Racing)%20updated%202017-02.pdf to the NY Gaming Commission rules on thoroughbred racing. Even if you\'re not in NY, it will give some ideas what you\'re getting into. Claiming Races section starts page 120.

Frank ….. Yes, I remember that day …. I was at the Big A …. good description you gave it. That is actually a great example â€" a lot of the talk on here about track/course biases relates to finding horses for future races, but recognizing a bias is at least as important (more so really IMO) on the day of (sometimes not so conducive to forum discussion though). It also emphasized that some jockeys recognize these things faster than others. What you, and mjellish, I and others imagined, Gryder also apparently imagined, as he was whipping and driving his horse straight out of the gate to get the lead at all costs …. not all the others did when they ought to have done.

Sekrah â€" I\'m not sure what kind of proof do you think can be provided. You said that you agreed that on a banked or pitched turf course, one area could be slower than another …. why would this not also be the case for a banked dirt track? If the track is banked toward the inside rail, and there is enough moisture about to make the inside path(s) slightly moister and better packing than the sandy, loose-on-top outer paths, why would that not favor the horses on the inside? Or vice versa. The roulette wheel is a static, mechanical thing …. the physical properties of the track are in a state of constant flux …. sun, precipitation, wind, track maintenance ….. just a matter of how much flux, and who is best suited to benefit.

In general, aren\'t we looking not for irrefutable statistical evidence, but for adequate statistical or other evidence relative to the odds?

Well, I hope you are right about that as he didn\'t move off of 24.5-1 after the Greenham, so I put a small wager on him. But why would he still be in Dubai? Surely if there was a serious chance of him running in the Guineas, he would have gone to Newmarket with the rest of bin Suroor\'s string (?)

Latest is that he\'ll be a \"late call\". http://www.attheraces.com/news/2017/April/26/thunder-snow-target-to-be-a-late-call-by-sheikh-mohammed

One would have expected that the result of the Greenham Stakes last Saturday, where Godolphin ran 1-2 well clear of the rest, and the winner in particular looked a good hope for the Guineas, would encourage him toward shipping Thunder Snow over for the Derby.

He\'s an interesting horse ... in whichever of the 3 races he goes in, and all 3 of them are pretty open, he won\'t be better than the 3rd or 4th choice at most, but yet has to be taken seriously. Others will have faster TG figures, but his sheet looks progressive and open to further improvement, he looks sure to stay, and has won in the mud (and on soft turf if he goes for the Guineas).

Another thing to keep an eye on, bin Suroor, after a down year last year with his yard virus-afflicted, has made a flying start to this season, 12-30 (40%) in 2017 so far in Britain, but since the start of the turf season April 1 (and the end of the Dubai season, where he was 63-15-3-9 – par for the course when you train for Godolphin in Dubai) he was 15-7-4-3 before Saturday\'s all-weather races.