Didn\'t buy the analysis but I did buy the sheets and anyone with even a beginner\'s level of understanding could deduce that the horse was a huge overlay based on the data. Yes, I bet him but that\'s mostly irrelevant to the question at hand

I think you mostly missed the point of my post and the crux of the question I posed but I will agree with you on your point that obviously not enough bettors are using TG.

Didn\'t buy the analysis but I did buy the sheets and anyone with even a begginer\'s level of understanding could deduce that the horse was a huge overlay based on the data. Yes, I bet him but that\'s mostly irrelevant to the question at hand

I think you mostly missed the point of my post and the crux of the question I posed but I will agree with you on your point that obviously not enough bettors are using TH.

At the risk of redboarding, I\'d like to pose a question that went through my mind as Zanotti sat extremely \"cold\" on the board... when calculating your edge with a given bet, are there different variables to consider depending on what class of race it is?

In other words, would you be more apt to regress yours odds line to the market numbers in a claiming race vs a stakes race?

Obviously the TG numbers are the absolute best at quantifying what can be quantified but if a horse doesn\'t even take close to the money he should, at what point do the subjective variables at least somewhat counteract the objective ones?

A couple I \"haven\'t heard much about\"...

I\'m going to play Awesome Slew to at least pair his top which should be good enough to hit the board with a decent trip. I think he even has a chance to move forward as a 2 turn mile+ looks like it may be his preferred trip.

Ami\'s Mesa will be a big price and just pairing up makes her a contender... Bred to handle dirt so a new top would not surprise in the least.

Will it take -5 to win this race? I\'m not sold that Coll,GR or arrogate run their top. Obviously they\'re all win candidates but it wouldn\'t surprise me to see it done on their secondary tops.

To me it\'s now or never for Carina Mia to break through... rumor of a quarter crack that interrupted her training prior to the Gallant Bloom and as you mentioned the slow pace in the Ballerina could give her 2 legitimate excuses.

Horse went favored in the same spot last year for Mott and the ship is certainly a concern even with the trainer switch. Curious to see the last two figures but I think the value will be there

Your first problem is 3 lengths does not equal 3 points at that distance.

Does he bounce off the big figure even with the additional rest? IMO, I think he does. That being said, I think there is a ton of value in tossing him from the top spot as the favorite. His secondary top just makes him another contender and under the circumstances he\'ll be facing, he\'s no cinch to even run run that.

Question for TGJB- did you consider making last year\'s bc dirt mile any slower? To my amateur eye, it seems like a possibility. GR comes in under similar circumstances as last year...off a top and an east-west ship. Obviously he has more time into it this year and he arrived in Cal earlier.

He ran a -3 as a three year old and a -1 last year...sire profile indicates he could have a new top in him at age five. To me he\'s not impossible.

Yes, this is a fast group but there are some question marks. Who\'s likely to run their top among the current top four choices?

Where is the evidence? I think you\'re posing that question in the wrong forum...

She was the fastest horse in the race and had 3 other efforts that made her tough on Saturday (2 of which came on firm turf).

Anyone who doesn\'t think that ride compromised her chances isn\'t paying attention.

Owners are no dummies obviously. They know what they have (or don\'t have)

Do you average ground on the turns? (3w for Antonoe?)

I\'m coming up with 2 lengths in ground loss for Antonoe plus 3/4 length win.

8lbs given for Dickinson= 2.5 lengths (rounded)

2.75 lengths -2.5 = .25 lengths to the good for Antonoe... Would this be rounded to a quarter point better figure for Antonoe?

I\'m by no means an expert so please correct me if I\'m wrong.

I know they\'re part of the narrative... The equation, not so much IMO. My guess (without any data to back it up) is that any perceived jockey advantage is already more than accounted for in the odds.

Never given it much thought... I don\'t bet jockeys

What happened to just Bet the Ortiz brothers and you\'ll be fine?

Maybe I\'m missing something but how does a negative expectation turn into a positive one just because you\'re playing horizontals.... That ROI last 6 months is brutal.

If you go by this logic, wouldn\'t it be a good idea to blindly include all favorites when playing horizontals... Your hit rate would exceed 24% and your ROI would be slightly healthier.