Agree, just a horror show of a call.

Meanwhile, Travis Stone with an all-timer. From about 3/8ths out he recognizes FY and SL\'s moves, instantly calls, \"Mystik Dan cuts the corner!\" virtually AS Hernandez hits (creates?! ha!) that hole, talks about nobody but those 3 from then to the wire, and correctly states the order of finish after announcing that it is a photo finish. Incredibly deft performance in the biggest of all spots.

Looks like I will have to be satisfied with a little excitement for my money!

Hope you all did better, heh.

#9 - Papilio for me.

A pretty straightforward case, to me at least: she has the co-best figure in the race (albeit 9 months old) and earned it on soft turf. Also, she has run reasonably well on CD turf previously. I think she wins the race more than 1 in every 10 tries.

I will also use/bet #10 - Sparkle Blue, assuming ML or better (as I type, 8/1 on track and overseas). Her 3rd start of the season was her best last year -- and was about fast enough to win this. If she replicates that pattern today, but a bit faster (as her first two starts of the year, and the sire\'s stats suggest she could), you should at least get some excitement for your money.

Hopefully you followed your own tip here onto Santin in the 11th!

Very well done! This should be a nice haul for you!

Certainly feel I got my money\'s worth from the Oaks/Derby seminar, well done.

TDN printing/confirming that he died on track, apparent heart attack:

https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/medina-spirit-dies-of-apparent-heart-attack-at-santa-anita/

What an awful shame.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2021/06/29/bob-baffert-justify-triple-crown-failed-drug-test-california/

\"A 23-page analysis of that case, sent to the CHRB by a California deputy attorney general in July and obtained by The Post, suggests the state’s lawyers were concerned about the way the agency responded to the failed drug test. A court, the state’s lawyer wrote, \'could find that the CHRB abused its discretion and acted in a manner that was arbitrary, capricious, or entirely lacking in evidentiary support.\'\"

Something in there for everyone, but it sure feels like a distinction without a difference when Rick Arthur (\"California’s medical equine director, who the documents show played a central role in the scuttling of the Justify matter\") says, \"\'The way this case was handled was not a favor for Bob Baffert, the way this case was handled was out of respect for Justify.\'\"

Fairmount1 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The woke folks, PETA, this younger generation, and
> the direction of our world, one has to wonder....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HMqZ2PPOLik (In which Principal Skinner ponders whether \"The woke folks, PETA, [and] this younger generation,\" are to blame...)

Yep, it sure is a mystery why the sport has a problem attracting new blood.

The world needs an amount of Don Quixotes.

I say, good luck, Mr. Jamgotchian.

All of this is, forgive me, but, horseshit!

Do the codes say the drug is only illegal if given by needle, or for a purpose, or if a certain effect is achieved? Do the codes ask for an inquiry into trainers intent?

No?

Then why is anyone talking about it?

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I have no dog in this fight. But someone please
> explain to me why a guy would use a drug
>
> a) that doesn\'t move a horse up
>
> b) that he knows there\'s a test for
>
> c) because he\'s had a positive for it before,
> after which he swore publicly they would never
> allow it in the barn again.
>
> Walk me through the risk/reward on this. I have no
> idea whether Baffert is using something, but if he
> is it ain\'t this stuff. He\'s not an idiot.

You\'re starting out from a false premise - roughly, that Baffert sees the world and comes to his decisions in a way more or less similar to the way that you do. My experience as a criminal defense attorney leads me to think that you should reconsider the assumptions you\'ve made above: that Baffert is intelligent, that Baffert understands risk/reward calculus the way you do, that Baffert has any degree of concern for previous positives he\'s had or statements he\'s made regarding those tests/medications, that you know everything the horse was given or what provoked this test or what effect it can have on the horse, and so on, and so forth.

(And by the way, the statements he has made publicly in the last 48 hours alone very seriously belie your assertion that Baffert is not an idiot.)

Since you invited the speculation, I\'ll take a shot: he otherwise had no chance to win the race, the horse was worth $50,000 or $500,000 before the race and about $50,000,000 after, and he has absolutely no reason to believe he\'ll ever suffer a consequence for any misdeed performed by himself or anyone urinating in the corner of a barn under his control - said another way, it is in fact you who misunderstands the risk/reward presented to him by this situation, and not Bobby!

Yeah, if the horse is in the gate, he\'s the favorite and it won\'t be remotely close. In the last 20ish years, it\'s only the very longshot Derby winners who run in but don\'t go off favored in the Preakness.

I agree that the Race Shapes are a good tool, but think the Derby (this Derby perhaps especially) is a bad example.

Consider that Medina Spirit in his last race (SA Derby) did not make the lead, and that the horse that outsprinted him for the lead in the SA Derby was in this race.

The Race Shape takes into account that Rock Your World ran two turf races before the SA Derby, each with 24 1/5 first quarters, and therefore projects Medina Spirit to be 3-4 lengths faster to the first call than Rock Your World, when we know that isn\'t true - or at least, it wasn\'t true the only time they\'ve run a comparable race.

Thanks very much :-)