Nice catch.  I rewatched the replay and he took a little jump and switched leads over the tracks from where the starting gate was moved.  If you watch closely you can see it is where they raked up the tracks but he must have just been spooked enough to try to avoid them.  Not sure he wins without switching leads, but it certainly impacted him in deep stretch.  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_QUWc4L3N8o

Having listened to the seminar (which is great every year), one aspect which I look for is the improvement from 2YO to 3YO.  There is one horse which I would typically discount, but I am trying to ensure I don\'t have a blind-spot.  The question is about the expected improvement in their 3YO top.

Without sharing proprietary numbers, looking at Epic Ride, his second start was on Jan 5th.  Presumedly if he had run 6 days prior it would be classified as a 2YO race.  

If that was a 2YO race...he would have only a 3 point new top as a 3YO, and maybe some more room for improvement.  He just made a 4 point jump to a new top, which makes him amongst the top third speed figures in the race.  Bounce risk sure, but certainly faster than many that will have significantly lower odds!

He scratched in and will have a terrible post, but I am just trying to keep myself from quickly dismissing him.  At 62-1 is he a bomb that can inflate the exotics, or am I trying to be too creative?

Great stuff today...appreciate you helping build up my Derby bankroll.  

You and the team have had a very impressive start to the weekend!!

Honestly I don\'t think Baffert is an outlier, and in a multi-million dollar competitive industry everyone is skirting the rules while looking for an edge.  Baffert is similar to baseball players using steroids (McGwire admitted it and was still allowed to be a coach), the Houston Astros and Yankees stealing signs in baseball (but still keeping their championship), Patriots various cheating scandals, or NCAA basketball coaches recruiting violations (but almost all of them keeping their jobs).  In fact in the case of UNC a few years ago was very clear, but the industry decided to keep it in the shadows and just move on...not wanting to impact a winning program or tarnish the legacy of Roy Williams.

\"The NCAA did not dispute that the University of North Carolina was guilty of running one of the worst academic fraud schemes in college sports history, involving fake classes that enabled dozens of athletes to gain and maintain their eligibility. But there will be no penalties, the organization said, because no rules were broken.\"

So I guess the industry as a whole just needs to decide if it is better with a high-profile media friendly person like Baffert, or better without him.  Right or wrong, other sports seem to have taken a less aggressive approach.

Well played, you are on a roll today!

I\'ve been a strong Prat follower watching how aggressive he rides, especially at the finish line.  He\'s been dominant at his home base in SOCAL with a big year so far with over 150 wins to date and nearly $13M in purses.

I am not sure how well his successes come through on his TG performance metrics, as it might not correlate into new tops...but seemingly he gets a little more out of his mounts than many others (at least on the west coast).

Would you bias up the horses performance expectations as most do with Irad, especially if his presence isn\'t seen as strongly on the tote board?  Or do you view this as irrelevant from a figures perspective?

Many trends fade away over the years while some remain relevant.  I am curious if there is a consistent opinion relating to birth month, and how that might relate to timing of development between 2yo to 3yo.  Several years ago I grabbed this data (admittedly not mine, I think from someone on this board) and am wondering how it could be a factor for TG development in early May.  

Obviously form cycle and TG numbers are primary, but is this a bias that should be applied or considered?

34% of Derby winners were born in January (7% of thoroughbreds born in that month)
24% of Derby winners were born in February (14% of thoroughbreds born in that month)
22% of Derby winners were born in March (27% of thoroughbreds born in that month)
12% of Derby winners were born in April (31% of thoroughbreds born in that month)
8% of Derby winners were born in May (17% of thoroughbreds born in that month)

Known   22-Mar
Like   13-Feb
Brooklyn   20-Jan
Keep   8-Feb
Saint   15-May
Besos   4-Mar
Mandaloun   18-Mar
Medina   5-Apr
Hot Rod   11-Apr
Midnight   25-Jan
Dynamic   2-Feb
Helium   1-Apr
Hidden   15-Mar
Essential   9-Apr
Rock   28-Feb
King   12-Jan
Highly   23-Mar
Super Stock   12-Apr
Soup   30-Mar
Bourbonic   7-Apr

That is why I found it interesting looking at the Asmussen stats for first start after the trainer change.

Of the 1335 starts he has had first time with a new horse, he has won 20% of those races and ITM for half.

And if I am reading this correctly...more of these horses run a new top (16%) than his rate of new tops for his other horses (14%)...am I reading that correctly off his sheet?

Ha, thanks for that. I admit that my comments were unsubstantiated suppositions, so I can\'t defend the veracity of my assertions.

Disappointing to see Art Collector out of the KD!

If you think Tiz was overly cranked to get Sackatoga the big NY races and not able to hold his tight conditioning for 3 months...the tote board could explode this year.

It isn\'t normal these days for a horse to run back 10f as quickly as he will be this year. And he likely will not be saving any ground. Not saying he will bounce (no evidence yet), but if he isn\'t as sharp it will be interesting figuring out who can jump a couple points to be in play.

I think it is a mistake to dismiss him based on City Zip.  Improbable gets a ton of depth from his female line.  With his dam coming out of AP Indy, and his second dam is a sister to Hard Spun.  

Looking back, there were some questions about the breeding of Always Dreaming, Nyquist, American Pharoah, and California Chrome.  Would have been foolish to arbitrarily omitted those horses who had run better than maybe their breeding suggested.

What evidence is there that Improbable won\'t get 10f?  

He was coming off a 3.5 month layoff and still ran a great race in the Rebel...earning a very solid TG figure.  Sure I would like to see him not get caught at the wire, but LRT ran a significantly slower figure while winning.  Then in the slop at the Ark Derby he was agitated prior to the race, had to be re-loaded into the gate, was climbing as he appeared to not like the track, and still finished strong with the second fasted TG of the spring.

The only reason I included the 50-1 longshot Summer Spice in the 6th at Gulfstream was the TG analysis.

Made for a heck of a trifecta!!!

Thanks for helping top off my NYRA account...you guys rock!

I was in Vegas yesterday and stopped by the Wynn.

They have 6 horses single-digits to win the KD.  I don\'t think the real odds will be that compact.  

Shockingly they have Justify as 8-1 to win the Triple Crown.  How is that a logical bet?

I think it is important to recognize that their approach is different and don\'t follow the same methodology that Fairmont is using.

1-2-4-6

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/221263/abel-tasman-gears-up-for-kentucky-oaks-run

\"When I first got her, she was sick, so I missed some (training) days with her and took it easy with her,\" Baffert said. \"I was going to run her in Arkansas, but with Unique Bella out (of the Santa Anita Oaks), I thought she\'d be good enough to beat those, but I didn\'t know they had another stealth missile in there.