the numbers are wrong, the europeans are superior gentlemen - moore a genius.

Rick B. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

> I guess I\'d be on board with this if there were
> some
> serious handicapping-based knocks on both of
> these
> horses. I haven\'t really seen any, here or
> elsewhere.
>
> IMO it is foolish to try to beat a favorite whose
> only
> perceived flaw is that he is \"overbet\"...that is
> simply
> a-wishin\' and a-prayin\' that something weird
> happens
> and the fave gets beat. Handicapping, it ain\'t.

didn\'t like GH or AP before the beholder scratch

make believe (favourite) / minimum  10-1 in juvenile / found / tonalist 4 four fold accumulator pays with the bookmaker approximately 1344/1. consider that pick 4  pay generally at least 2x more than the book, certainly tomorrow with pool size, that is a respectable payout.

AP + Golden Horn will still take more than 50% of the horizontal pools ...still an opportunity if you can get both beat?

pizza man would have won the arc by 4 lengths, unfortunately he is a a gelding and  not allowed to participate.

it is trainer discourse, nevertheless, regarding Illuminate, Hannon expressed the following concern in today\'s Racing Post:

\"Illuminate looks like being one of the highest-rated in the race. I\'m not confident she\'ll stay but she isn\'t silly, she doesn\'t tear off and she doesn\'t pull. She has the speed to hold her position and it should be easier going around two bends.\"

Illuminate is the antepost favourite and this is one turf race where the American tainers do well...and if Liam\'s Map does what is expected good race to search for a bomb in the p4 sequence. One to consider perhaps the Chad Brown  former Wachman Last Waltz  coming over from Europe (20-1 antepost). Last out finished 1/2 length behind O\'Briens Coolmore who is a potential 1000 Guineas contender, that would translate to a good number, if we had accurate figures on these races.

what if 99% of the bettors don\'t have any numbers?
is it more of an advantage that a) people will over-value the last figure or b) almost everyone has no figures at all ?

i am doing some reverse engineering to understand how the hell arabian queen won at 50-1 and one british speed figures site, which looks dodgy, nevertheless did have AQ running four races back a number as fast as golden horn ever did. (would post the link , but i dont think it will be allowed - if you type speed ratings uk into google it should be the first result)

which brings us back to a general question of relevance to the board:

it is often said in the NA punting circles, that the bettor does not have an edge, everyone has speed numbers, pari-mutuel system kills my price, takeout,etc.

this is what I never understood: why don\'t the speed figure number makers such as thoro-graph focus on europe*, where 1) 99% of the crowd does not use speed figures and those that do have incredibly primitive speed numbers

and

2) where fixed odds betting is avalaible ? (often hear the americans complain that they dont have fixed odds betting)

*obviously, i understand why such numbers are produced for the NA market, here I intend the focus of their wagering activity

yes, won\'t bet criterion, the ground is not that bad.
 alternative:
cougar mountain at 100-1  , 25-1 place

I will have a punt on Criterion 40-1 each way (10-1 place) (fixed odds) because of the soft ground conditions. Hope Gleneagles does not scratch so there are 3 places.
Regards, k.

Thank you magicnight, Unfortunately it was not what could have been, as i left about 500 euros on the table. in short,and excuse me for my ex post facto claims,  after collating some capital from some unsavory characters (i.e., my ex-wife), i wagered 15 euros epiphaneia win, and then played a 50 cent trifecta which included both just a way and spielberg. However, being the schopenhauerian cosmic pessimist that I am, epiphaneia was only underneath  and not on top, as i thought i was cleverly utilizing the tri as coverage instead of an each way bet. As we now know, 50 cent tri  paid in the regions of 450, of course entailing that if epiphaneia would have finished second or third the nectar would have most likely been more bountiful. oh! the pugnant misery of poor wagering structure. i am not stating anything new, but in this game even when you win you often get the feeling that you lost. regards, k.

That is in fact a capital idea Magicnight. I shall write my bookmaker:

Dear sir,

As is my custom, after completing my day\'s labours, I retreat to the comfort of my study, where I, in the following order, firstly, pour a glass of cognac and, secondly, peruse your wagering books. As I immersed myself in your antepost lines for this Saturday\'s Cigar Mile, the cadence of my cardiac cycle quickened when I observed that one Transparent had been handsomely offered at a copious 20-1 with the canonical place terms of 1/5 in a minimum 8 horse field.

My stoic exhiliration nevertheless began to unravel entirely when I then learned that one Atreides would no longer race on Saturday, meaning that the 8 horse field was now in reality a 7 horse field, a novel historial fact which had not yet been noted by your robust linesmaker.

In an attempt to embrace this serendipitous benediction, I forthwith mobilized myself so as to occasion a wager. Alas, my ebullience fleetly transmogrified into despondency upon the realization that I have only 27 cents on my account and am unable to accrue by my own means the funds to actuate my desired punt punt. Hence, the reason for my epistle. Insofar as you allow a minimum wager of 50 cents, could you so kindly, out of benovelence to a fellow Christian, intercalate a minimum of 23 cents into my wagering treasury so that I may take advantage of your linesmaker\'s momentary pococurantism.

Regards,
K.

Atreides now will not run, but my bookmaker is apparently asleep, as the former is still available on the antepost at 15-1. when the bookmaker awakens, transparent will be moved to 15-1  in the leibnizian best of all possible worlds and the place terms will be necessarily cut to 2 instead of 3. unfortunately, i am too lethargic to perform the necessary labours to deposit capital in the punt-punt account to take advantage of the bookmaker\'s momentary pococurantism. regards, k.

My bookmaker  has Transparent antepost 20-1 for saturday, place terms 3 places at 1/5, Does that appear slightly insane considering the small and quotidian field? or does that line declare with an almost metaphysical certitude a bounce after the long break followed by emphatic return at  belmont?

in addition, insofar as anyone wishes to establish discourse on the japan cup before sunday, i would be willing to exchange some thoughts. propaedeutic meditation:
epiphaneia  14-1  
regards, k.

Queen Anne Stakes

Toronado appears highly vulnerable at  4-5 favourite not having raced in approximately 300 days in a race that is unforgiving as callous gods to season debutants. Wise guy selection and second in the market is the ex-American Verrazano at an unattractive 4-1, therefore will go here with the french entry ANODIN 12-1  trained by F. Head, who has won this race before with Goldikova. 4 year olds have a strong record in the Queen Anne and Anodin\'s only race in 2014 was a second to the unrelenting veteran Cirrus des Aigles.

Queen Mary Stakes

The WOW SIGNAL (6-1) was purchased by al-Shaqab operation after winning his maiden by excessive margins on 21.5.14. historically, horses with one career race/one career win have done well in this ode to Queen Mary. Whilst this Quinn trained Second favourite in the market has received adulation from various men of importance, he still carries a reasonable price.

King\'s Stand Stakes

Irish (pseudo?) genius Aiden O\'Brien has never won this 5 furlong sprint before, he enters 3 year old GUERRE (9-1), who in his first race of 2014 defeated the intelligent old Maarek . With their mandated weight advantage 3 year olds have a concrete-solid history in this race, on numerous occasions drinking the victory nectar of Bellerophon, Guerre is also ridden by the best in his field of labour, Ryan Moore.
 
St.James Palace Stakes

Kingman (10-11) looks unsuscepitble to regicide here, an emphatically deserving favourite. Nevertheless, must tip Godolphin\'s 2013 breeders cup juvenile turf mile winnder OUTSTRIP (25-1), based on the sheet for him I have imagined in my mind\'s eye.

Now I have approximately 2 hours to determine in what horizontal combinations (place accumulator, each-way ?) I will bet these selections...

Good luck to anyone playing Ascot today

one of the more obvious advantages of shifting focus to non-American markets is that horizontal betters are not bound to predetermined pick 3, 4 or 5 sequences. Instead the punter can construct doubles, trebles, accumulators, etc. For this reason those type of horizontal bets always seemed to me to be sucker bets, although I understand that perhaps Americans cannot easily access a bookmaker.

regards,
K.