Big Race Wednesday at YORK UK

[Dana666]

Wednesday is the Juddmonte International at 1 1/4 miles at York.

If you\'re up at 10:30 eastern time, you may want to check out one of Europe\'s highest rated horses, Golden Horn, with Frankie Dettori up.

Would be exciting to see Golden Horn make it to the Breeder\'s Cup as 1 1/2 miles is clearly his best distance, though he\'s in one of the best races of the year tomorrow with great competition like The Gray Gatsby, Aidan O\'Brien\'s Gleneagles, and the up and comer, Time Test.

If Golden Horn trounces this field, his rating will soar to Frankel-esque heights for sure.

I\'m not sure where the value might be if you\'re betting the race tomorrow.

Golden Horn will likely be 1-5 or even 1-9 in the US betting though the bookies in the UK have him at 1.5 to 1 which is amazing--why again don\'t we have bookies in this country???!

Perhaps you\'d get 8 or 10-1 on an exacta though because you\'ve got three legit chances for the second spot who are hard to sort out on their own.

Do you side with the classy older Gray Gatsby who has already run 2end to Golden Horn or the flashy three year old Time Test who\'s last race was something to see or even the miler stretching out Gleneagles??? Betting against Aidan OBrien is akin to besting Todd Pletcher at Saratoga!

TOO BAD WE DON\"T HAVE T-G SHEETS FOR THIS ONE! Would make one hell of a race of the week.

Check it out either way.

[Dana666]

The odds on Golden Horn just dropped from 1.5 to 1 to 4-7 in the middle of the night with news that Gleneagles might scratch due to soft turf. Guess the bookies saw Gleneagles as Horns main rival, eh?

[kurukshetra]

I will have a punt on Criterion 40-1 each way (10-1 place) (fixed odds) because of the soft ground conditions. Hope Gleneagles does not scratch so there are 3 places.
Regards, k.

[Dana666]

He did scratch! The ground doesn\'t look that bad either.

[kurukshetra]

yes, won\'t bet criterion, the ground is not that bad.
 alternative:
cougar mountain at 100-1  , 25-1 place

[Dana666]

You had the right idea but the wrong horse! DeSousa the champion jock at 50-1! He pulled one out of Jerry Bailey\'s old bag of tricks!

[kurukshetra]

i am doing some reverse engineering to understand how the hell arabian queen won at 50-1 and one british speed figures site, which looks dodgy, nevertheless did have AQ running four races back a number as fast as golden horn ever did. (would post the link , but i dont think it will be allowed - if you type speed ratings uk into google it should be the first result)

which brings us back to a general question of relevance to the board:

it is often said in the NA punting circles, that the bettor does not have an edge, everyone has speed numbers, pari-mutuel system kills my price, takeout,etc.

this is what I never understood: why don\'t the speed figure number makers such as thoro-graph focus on europe*, where 1) 99% of the crowd does not use speed figures and those that do have incredibly primitive speed numbers

and

2) where fixed odds betting is avalaible ? (often hear the americans complain that they dont have fixed odds betting)

*obviously, i understand why such numbers are produced for the NA market, here I intend the focus of their wagering activity

[Topcat]

kurukshetra Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

>
> it is often said in the NA punting circles, that
> the bettor does not have an edge, everyone has
> speed numbers, pari-mutuel system kills my price,
> takeout,etc.
>
>
>
>


Since the top recent \"fig\" doesn\'t automatically win and is frequently overbet, there\'s plenty of room in the boat of survivors for those viewing patterns rather than black-and-white absolutes . . .

[kurukshetra]

what if 99% of the bettors don\'t have any numbers?
is it more of an advantage that a) people will over-value the last figure or b) almost everyone has no figures at all ?

[TGJB]

We did try. There wasn\'t much of a market, and part of the reason is people over there aren\'t used to spending serious money for data.

[mjellish]

Going to just chime in my two cents here.  One weakness in any speed or performance figure is the effect of slow pace on the overall number.  I\'ve said it before, but when the lead horse goes 50 to the half and 115 to the 3/4, and the rest of the field is comfortable rating behind and trying to save ground, they can\'t make up for that by coming home the last 1/4 in 20 flat.  And many European races are run with that type of race shape - Slow early, Fast late.  So if you are using the final time as a gauge for the performance, the number will come back slower than it maybe could have been unless you adjust for that race shape somehow.

The way TG does their numbers by also going off the horses somewhat mitigates that.  But that\'s also based on past data.  So over in Europe, when many of the races are run with a slow early pace, the data will build that way race over race.  So you wind up with a narrower range of figures.  And that means you have to account for that when using a data set like TG.  A one point edge means more, IMO.  

Now one thing I\'ve wondered and I\'m not sure about this, but if you had a fairly reliable way to use TG data and somehow account or adjust for the pace of the past races based on the likely pace scenario of today\'s race - you\'d have a pretty decent edge over the crowd.  The problem as I see it is that all it takes is a tough start for one early pace horse, or one or two jockeys who have different intentions, and your pace projection just went out the window.  So very tough to do.

I\'ve noticed that many European Turf runners come over here and run faster than they did overseas, and not all of them get Lasix.  If you go through the BC sheet archives here on this site and look at those numbers I think you will see that the data confirms this.  So when looking at a Euro import, I usually adjust the TG number by 2 points faster as a rough gauge for what they may run over here.  That may sound a bit arbitrary, but it seems about right.

Anyway, just my two cents.  Feel free to crucify away.

[Topcat]

kurukshetra Wrote:
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> what if 99% of the bettors don\'t have any
> numbers?
>


Another critical point, here: those who employ the numbers and have established various levels of confidence in their judgment related to their use are likely to risk proportionately more at the windows than the garden-variety number-stabbing ninny types.

[TGJB]

We clearly need more ninny types, garden variety or otherwise.

[Dana666]

Complete Monday morning quarterbacking here, I mean I didn\'t even consider AQ, but the two fillies that she lost to recently are as good as any top colts in europe. Amazing Maria and Legatissimo are high class types. 50-1 was too high. 20-1 would have been fair. I\'m a jackass, I didn\'t even consider her. Very questionable ride by Frankie too-I don\'t think he\'ll be riding Golden Horn again; he\'s such a loose cannon. No way Buick or Ryan Moore ever loses that race. Frankie sent Horn last time and today he strangled him, fought Frankie for half a mile. Anyway turn the page.

[Niall]

All - while it may not exactly qualify as big, there ir a race Friday at said venue that is interesting on a few fronts. WW sends out 2 yr old filly Acapulco to take on older MALES in the Nunthorpe. She receives 27lbs and red hot Irad Ortiz crosses the drink for the ride. Oh - and she is the ML fav... not sure the time of the race but will find out and post here in case anyone is interested. Good luck everybody this weekend especially if you play the Pacific Classic. I have a soft spot for this race as I cashed monumentally on Student Council, who was the pick in the ROTW (I think). Those were the days handicapping the dirt to poly races ...