Bobby B.

Why would Jake tell a mope like you anything??? He doesn\'t know you from Adam. If you follow the news at all, you\'d know why T-Graph, 1,000\'s of ATM machines and other businesses were down. Ahhhhhh, but I\'m sure you did...........................not

Tis far more important to discuss the same ole bullshit over and over again, so let that thread continue and we\'ll start fresh.

Charismatic 1999:

CD.......3.50
Kee......3.50

SA...........8.0


BM............8.75

SA............8.75
SA...............11.75tu
SA.................12.50tu

SA................11.75

Is he playable? This has to be broken into two parts:

In the old, classic school of sheet reading the answer would be a resounding no. Big top, short rest, new distance etc.

However, one is compelled to look how he compared to the others in the race that day. He was second fastest in the race with Stephen Got Even, the immortal First American also coming in off a huge top fastest at 2.75bi/bo. You might even take the approach that Char. hadn\'t gone back all spring and was in fact a rapidly developing 3yo. At the odds and knowing it was Lukas it wasn\'t an improbable play by any stretch. After all, price is the name of the game.

Up to date sheet reading requires trainer study and not just figs alone. Knowing which trainers\' horses are less likely to bounce and/or more likely for a big move forward is an integral part of the equation that reading the sheet alone will never provide. Thoro-Graph is miles ahead of the competition in that regard.

I thought Strength Within in the 5th at GP was better, caught a loose on the lead Bailey 4/5 shot in a tad bit faster time.

Author: P-Dub
Date:   01-07-03 08:23

I saw where Baffert is pointing him to the Donn Hdcp on 2/23. Its a GR.1 but the purse is half of what the Big Cap is, as well as a furlong shorter. Why not the Big Cap?? He obviously runs well at SA (2 for 2) and the purse is $1,000,000. Is he worried about the distance? He sure looked good while rating last week. My buddies and I make a road trip every year and we would love to see him run on March 1. Any thoughts as to why Baffert would go to GP and not SA??

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Baffy is seriously considering Congaree for a shot at the $6 mill in Dubai a few eeks later.

Perhaps if T-G were to check 2yo stats for sires with at least two crops and compare the average tops to see if the averages have become faster as a whole. Then we might be able to move the scale to say a 5 and change for a no go for the Ky D.

Haven\'t had time to peruse the figs the last six weeks or so (post B.C. actually). Any comment on my part would be complete b.s. I\'ll have to investigate.

Invariably in races like this where everyone kinda looks the same it\'ll run chalk, chalk, chalk, LOL. I\'d take a shot with Brainstorm 15-1 ML is fast enough and 3rd off a long layoff; was a solid GII runner and has enough speed to get a hedge hugging trip; Picou has been ice cold maybe this\'ll turn things around for him.

A hearty thank you to Thoro-Graph for the Holiday Cheer here at the end of the season.

A very nice gesture to regular users of your product!

Thanks again and may your next wager be a winning one!

In the Bloodhorse article about Toccet and his owner Dan Borislow, there was a mention at the end of the article that Ghostzapper earned a monster figure of 3+ on the \"Ragozin Speed Sheets\". What did you guys give him. Inquiring minds want to know, lol.

http://racing.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=13186

If memory serves, Byrne was busted for leaving his horse unattended not for the injection itself. There was a stink involving the vet, but don\'t recall the details.

As a public service, I copied your reply on their board. We\'ll see if it stays up, LOL.

Known as copy and paste Jerry, quite simple really, no bother at all.

Thought I\'d copy this stuff over here, before they decide to take it down. I have no vested interest in this one way or another.
****************************************  

A Public Service Announcement

(or how I learned to stop loving Graph Racing-East, West, North and South)

 

Having followed the fortunes of TGJB\'s Rising Graph-East Stable (RGE), I was somewhat astonished to learn that a new Rising Graph Stable-West (GSW) offering circular was being distributed. In the spirit of \"total honesty\" that such SEC approved offering circulars must adhere to, I state here that I have no respect for the \"figures\" that TGJB produces and that I also, for a variety of reasons, harbor a significant personal animus toward JB. The facts cited herein, however, are easily verified through reading the circular and making use of DRF PPs and racing stable records.

Because it is a required disclosure, the GSW offering has a brief mention of the existence of RGE and its results up to the June 24, 2002 date of the offering. \"...(RGE) has purchased...five thoroughbreds and currently owns four horses that are racing. ...(These horses have) started in 13 races, with one second and three third place finishes, plus a fourth place finish in a Grade III stakes race.\" While it may be said that this account of RGE\'s results was technically accurate, it is also true that even by the date of the offering the results of RGE were bad enough that the description given was laughable at best.

Of the five horses purchased, one of them (a cheap claim) had died in a freak accident for which TGJB obviously is blameless. The other four horses (purchased at ~$100,000 each, I\'m guessing) were not doing all that much better. One had already been dropped in for a $20,000 claiming tag with poor results and no claim. Another had run only once--beaten a bushel of lengths as an unbelievably outclassed entrant in the Arkansas Derby--and had then been laid off due to physical problems. The other two had run some fair efforts, but nothing to indicate that they were worth anything near what they cost. I have no way to know (except for Guppie\'s Secret) what these horses looked like on TGJB\'s numbers when he bought them, but they must have looked a lot worse when the GSW offering was made. Now that RGE results have completely collapsed, I am guessing that no further updates will be provided to potential GSW investors.

As of December 1, 2002, Rising Graph Stable has a single win--Guppie\'s Secret in a $20,000 NW of two lifetime claimer. Fit Performer, who has accounted for 1/2 the stables earnings, ran poorly in her last effort and hasn\'t run for eight weeks. The fourth horse, Chirimoya, is still showing up with mediocre efforts and may yet win a race (particularly if she is spotted a little less aggressively), but she\'ll be lucky to end up being worth half of what she was purchased for.

I\'m appending the Ragozin SHEETS on the four major RGE purchases for comparison purposes. SHEET readers can see that Guppie\'s Secret had a fair line for a strong trainer but just wasn\'t fast enough for a six figure purchase (unless you did a big short/long for the 2/28 OP win as I would guess TGJB did to get the TG number that led him to think a graded stakes was the next step). Power Choice and Fit Performer had recently run significant new tops that represented a lot of development and figured to be the end of the line. Chirimoya had a fair pattern and a decent number for a 3yo filly six figure purchase, but she also had developed quite a bit and was off a top that could easily lead to her being set back for a while at least. Only Chirimoya was a possible purchase off the SHEETS.

I would estimate that RGE has had gross earnings of about $64,000 as against expenses of about $104,000 including trainer and jockey percentages and the quixotic $10,000 entree fee for the Arkansas Derby runner. There was also a $20,000 organizing fee that TGJB charged the investors and ~$18,000 additional management fees that are owed TGJB for his 9 months of unparalleled stewardship. This adds up to a operating loss so far of about $80,000--and this is assuming, as I\'ve been told, that TGJB has waived his % of the gross income until RGE turns the corner (or hell freezes over, whichever comes first). I would estimate the remaining horses to be worth ~$100,000 (generously in my opinion) which means that as a conjuring trick TGJB has turned ~$600,000 into ~$200,000 in only 9 months of work.

Proposing another stable on the ashes of the first one would be incredible enough on its own, but the terms of the offering are such that P. T. Barnum would have been envious he hadn\'t taken his shot organizing a stable. First, as has been mentioned, the investers pay ($20,000) for the privilege of being lured in. Maybe this is the accepted practice for private offerings, but it strikes me as rubbing salt into the wound. Second, TGJB takes a monthly fee of 0.3% of the stable\'s capitalization (just under $2000 a month if the minimum $625,000 capitalization is met). Third TGJB takes 10% of the gross earnings (excluding capital gains on sale of horses). Fourth, TGJB takes 20% of any capital gain on the sale of a horse (with no deduction, naturally, for any capital losses from the sale of other horses). These charges are obscene--even if the stable were reasonably successful, the investors will lose while TGJB laughs all the way to the bank. It will be of small solace to the investers in GSE that the results are so bad that the worst of the extortionate TGJB potential fees will not come into play.

If I may digress for a bit, there was one other small part of the offering that caught my attention. In the section that trumpets JB\'s successes in the horse business TGJB writes as partial testimony to his greatness: \"Before starting Thoro-Graph, Mr. Brown managed the Dennis J. Heard Stable, which at the time Mr. Brown took over in 1976, consisted of 2 horses. In 1979, under Mr. Brown\'s direction, the stable ranked third in the country in wins.\"

There is one interesting omission in that statement--at the time of those successes JB was using the Ragozin SHEETS to achieve those positive results. Even more interesting is what happened after JB left the SHEETS to go out on his own and Heard decided to dissolve the stable now that the SHEETS weren\'t going to be used. JB ended up with almost all the racing horses and breeding stock and formed Badlands Stable, whose results were so bad that in a period of a few years the stable lost most of the value that had been built up while it was based on the SHEETS.

I hope that some of this information gives a little pause to anyone rushing to invest in any of TGJB\'s schemes, but I guess that I can only really hope that some of H. L. Mencken\'s observations prove not to be true in response to GRW.

 

Len Friedman

click the link below to get the Ragozin Sheets for the 4 horses mentioned in this article.

RGE\'s four major purchase

Posted by robespierre on December 06, 2002 at 15:08:18:

Since TGJB and \"friends\" seem determined to use this BB as an advertising medium, I\'m offering some free exposure re his Graph Stable ventures. This is not an attempt to \"prove\" that the results of GSE mean that all future such efforts will necessarily result in total disaster. Look at this as sort of a product warning label: \"This investment is dangerous to your financial health\", in the hopes that I won\'t have to hear in the future of how a SHEETS player (that I\'ll let remain anonymous) used some of the profits from a great SHEETS claim of a horse with a \"buried\" grass number to invest in the GSE fiasco. I hope that this warning proves effective, but let\'s just leave it at that. Any \"reply\" posts (positive or negative) will be guillotined here, although I would guess that there\'ll be opportunity elsewhere for those who feel it necessary to contribute their views on this subject.

I believe the best ever given out was Left Bank\'s minus <4.0>.

If an EPO test is forth coming, most likely a blood test, no? So they won\'t be able to check old urine samples of Bobby + Bobby runners which would be a pity. Could racing survive such a scandal, if a urine test were possible? Probably. People have already forgotten about the Pik 6 shmutz.

While I still can\'t forgive his ride on Middlesex Drive in the BC Mile (early speed type on the hedge from the one hole, taken back, aarrrgh!) the come back of Shane Sellers has been a stupendous success down in Kaintukeee. He\'s always been better than Julie imho. BTW, Julie provided little in her on tv analysis, just short of a babbling idiot from what I recall.

Other big time sinners Pat Day former druggie/alky abuser before he found religion. It\'s amazing Earlie Fires has been able to win over 6000 races with his bouts with Demon Rum. Would\'ve ridden more big time horses had he been a tad bit more reliable, Chop Chop Chavez a rank amateur with the whip compared to Earlie. Mark Guidry disappeared some years ago from the Chicago circuit with a cocaine problem.

Whichever drug one gets hooked on, it\'s tough to defeat. Those that come out on top are always in danger of returning to the quagmire. Kudos to those that can.