11/30 AQU

[TGJB]

This is going to be another of those days where TG and Rag are going to come up very different. Without a weather change Ragozin will have no way to account for the track changing speed during the day, so they will be forced to either give Congaree an even more unbelievable number than I did (and I gave him 1/4 point off the best number I have ever given out), or rob a lot of other horses on the card of the numbers they deserve. And, of course, future numbers will be based on these numbers, since we don\'t have a machine that goes around the track measuring \"physical resiliency\".

On a completely unrelated subject, I thought they were about to come up with a test for EPO.

Again, unrelated-- anyone know if Steve  Allday is Baffert\'s vet in New York?

Hope they get this crap cleaned up so I don\'t have to move my scale three points. I\'m getting tired of giving out all these negative numbers.

[JimP]

Funny! Subtle, but funny.

[JimP]

What number did you give him? I knew the race was good, but I\'m surpised it was THAT good.

[TGJB]

Funny? Yes and no, depending. Having to give out a negative four didn\'t have me rolling around on the floor.

Meanwhile, since I just had a cup of coffee, how about that guy on the Rag board who thinks Congaree\'s effort proves out Ragozin\'s 01 Wood Memorial figure. This despite 18 months of apparently not getting back to the number, which some of us might think was evidence to the contrary. And yes, the horse had basically no shot on TG (I did ROTW). Don\'t know how the race looked on Rags, although I noticed no one else seemed to be jumping in to say he was a great bet at 9/2.

Which leads to the question of what circumstances could be different in the East...

[cheapclaimer]

I believe the best ever given out was Left Bank\'s minus <4.0>.

If an EPO test is forth coming, most likely a blood test, no? So they won\'t be able to check old urine samples of Bobby + Bobby runners which would be a pity. Could racing survive such a scandal, if a urine test were possible? Probably. People have already forgotten about the Pik 6 shmutz.

[Michael D.]

I agree with TGJB here. I don\'t see how Congaree\'s run on Saturday can be tied back in any way to his Wood performance a year and a half ago. Same track, but completely different circumstances.  The fact is, Baffert can crank them up like no other trainer in history (for better or for worse), and you have to bet accordingly (meaning sometimes you have to take a guess)........ As for Congaree\'s  performance on Saturday, I thought it was the most impressive horse race I have ever seen. I think the second, third and fourth place finishers will all prove to be great milers. I doubt Congaree will ever run back to that number, but looking at the way the races were going on Saturday, I thought there had to be some mistake when I saw the final time (final quarter in 24 and change, after being used virtually the entire race??).

[Catalin]

JB:

Don\'t disagree with your supposition but I\'m not sure its just EPO.  Why the jump now?  Wouldn\'t it make more sense that Congaree has been on the stuff the whole time (with little benefit) and that Baffert\'s gotten hold of something else?

I\'ll bet if Len had handicapped the race on the board HE wouldn\'t haven\'t used that zero as a target. And I don\'t care whose #s you use, anybody betting a \"developing\" horse to get back to a top he hasn\'t been able to repeat in almost 2 years at 9-2 is taking the short end of it.

[derby1592]

Given the fast final fig and the very hot pace that Congaree was pressing throughout the entire race, his Cigar performance was the most impressive race of the year and probably one of the best miles of all time.

Those of you who are pure sheet readers may want to skip the following and I apologize that it is way after the fact but I have to admit that I did not think of it until now.

Anyway, here it goes, Congaree may have had a much faster back fig than we gave him credit for. If you recall, his Derby was run under an incredible pace and he pressed that pace and still did not wilt until the final 1/16. That was a great performance despite his 3rd place finish and probably represented an effort much better than the final figure he earned.  

That being said, I certainly did not see the big effort coming given his 4yo line and the fact that his 3yo top may have been even better than indicated makes his condition look even worse going into the race last Saturday. So you have to wonder what woke him up all of a sudden.

Chris

[Silver Charm]

The answer is a resounding no!!

The game of horse racing may be at an all-time low right now. Events like last Saturdays Cigar Mile are a perfect example why. Baffert being racings most visible figure is another.

What was once known as \"The Sport of Kings\" has become \"The Sport of Clowns\". Pro-Wrestling now has more class and fewer drugs.

I will follow up with a more detailed post later but I\'m to busy now.

[Mall]

I was hoping to be busy right now myself downloading the materials I was going to use with the package AB is sending to KY, but the brisnet site is down so here goes. AB could not have been more courteous or helpful, & you are very lucky to be working with him.

If Baffert and/or his vet are doing something outside the rules, I feel reasonably confident in saying that it is without the knowledge or participation of Robert McNair/Stonerside. He has invested a lot & done a lot & has a well deserved reputation for integrity. My opinion is that Baffert would be gone in a heartbeat if McNair believed that he was violating the rules. I\'ll see what I can find out re the EPO test, which I was also led to believe was imminent a no. of mos. ago. The vet angle is an interesting one, as it just doesn\'t make sense to me that a vet would risk his livlihood for the fees involved in administering EPO or some other prohibited substance. That has me wondering if trainers or their assts have figured out how to do it themselves, or are cutting the vets in for a piece of their percentage.

As for Congaree, twice in the past the horse had made 2pt plus forward moves, and one of those moves came at Aqu. He was also coming off a 9 and change 6f work. Detailed research I have seen indicates that a horse like Congaree is 1-2% to move fwd 2 pts and, oddly enough, 1-5% to make a big jump like he made. That made him an extraordinarily bad bet at the odds, but what he did is not completely w/o precedent.

On a truly unrelated note, the article you mentioned, which is also on the BH site, made Buddy Abadie sound like the kind of guy it would have been fun to know & spend a day with at the track, even though his research on the effect of weight was different than others. In contrast, published reports indicate that Jimmy The Hat doesn\'t even wear a hat & is almost bald, & that his other nickname is Jimmy The Mouth because he never shuts up when he\'s at the track. Add to that the fact that he used to be a stuntman on The Love Boat, together with his attorneys\' decision to define the \"class\" to include everyone who has ever cashed a pk6, pk4, or pk3 bet at an Autotote track, and it seems that at best the lawsuit is going to be a circus sideshow to the main event, which continues to unfold at a much slower pace.

[Silver Charm]

Mall, You seem like a really smart guy and I agree with you when you wrote the following:


\"If Baffert and/or his vet are doing something outside the rules, I feel reasonably confident in saying that it is without the knowledge or participation of Robert McNair/Stonerside. He has invested a lot & done a lot & has a well deserved reputation for integrity.\"

However, was is not a Stonerside horse Pat Byrne was caught red-handed injecting, shortly before a race, a few years ago at Saratoga. If I\'m not mistaken she was a 3yo grass filly who was put on turf at Churchill Downs and suddenly woke-up winning by 17 lengths. After one more CD win she went to Saratoga and won the first Saratoga 3yo filly grass stake(can\'t remember the name).
After Byrne was busted she never quite seemed to be the same filly. Incidentally I believe the filly still went off the favorite that day a Saratoga and faded badly. I\'m curious how many people in the betting public knew what went on prior to the race.

[Mall]

Silver Charm: Do you have me mixed up with somebody else? I\'m the guy who wanted to leave Orientate off the ticket & promised(fingers crossed) the other syndicate members to go straight from the track & jump off the Hancock Bldg if Volponi won the Classic. The guy who passed up the chance to meet PGGM at the BC. The guy who is driving to KY in the snow to enter a contest to make the kinds of plays he never makes at tracks he never plays. Really smart? I know a few people who might want to argue the point.

Anyway, I don\'t remember the incident you mention, though the rumors about Bryne have been around for quite awhile. The one I remember vaguely is an alleged confrontation in which Bryne supposedly threatened to pull his horses from some track if his horses kept being tested, & the track supposedly backed down. More recently, he was in the news as a result of lawsuit he filed against Tom Voss, claiming that Voss surreptitiously stole the formula for the track surface at Tapeta, from which he calls in times in which his horses work. Nice setup, eh?

If you or another poster can remember the details, perhaps we can persuade the Lisoni bros to add it to the suit, since we\'re all already members of the class.

[magicnight]

Mall;

Lawsuit? Tapeta? Are you confusing Byrne with Dickinson here?

Or, am I the confused one?

Bob

[tucker]

Not to butt in but it was M. Dickinson that sued T. Voss over the composition of training track material, not P. Byrne.
Sam

[Mall]

Unfortunately, no. I wish I could blame it on that but, alas, my memory is not what it used to be. Thanks for the correction.