When ALL sheet players focus on one horse, especially at 15-1, they never win. Sure he can win, but it rarely ever happens.

\"Jerry Brown of Thoro-Graph approached me because he really believes this colt has a big future.

Walden needed JB to tell him this was going to be a nice horse?

I never post on this board, but you guys are idiots!! Twirling Candy has run 3 zeroes at Hollywood, who runs better than that?? You are betting against a healthy 4 yo with great spacing.  I realize you are trying to beat a 6-5 shot, but they are sending this horse from the rail. No one has has his speed. The weight difference is meaningless!! I saw Miss Match run in Uruguay and she will never ever beat these types of horses, even if you want to play her at 10-1. All the others do not want to win or are  veteran in and outers. If you don\'t want   6-5.skip the race. If TC goes to the front. the race is over. This horse will pay 4-5 in the middle. You can\'t get that at the bank!!

Very bad and mispelled analysis!! I buy alot of sheets, hire a proof reader!!

Thank you!!

Where can I find these on-line?? They are not in the Redboard Room.

Thanks,

Mike

Thanks. I claimed a NJ bred filly at Philly today by Lion Hearted and was curious if she had any decent breeding and the sire profile on her sheet has limited starters. Look for her at Monmouth in June.

Looking at a horse running today @ Philly and under the sire profile, it states that this horse (Lion Hearted) has not run any horses (siblings) as 4 yos, but one as a 5 yo. Is this possible?

Trying to get a read on how much these horses improve from 3 to 4, even though there is a limited study number for horses that have run.

Additionally, does anyone remember what kind of horse Lion Hearted was??

Thanks,

Mike

Its not really hard for Pletcher to spot his horses. He has very few claimers in his barn and if he does, they are for longstanding clients. Ususally, his firsters win first or second out. If they are good, they go into stakes and if they are average, they go through their allowance conditions. Doesn\'t seem he needs to be an expert to spot horses.

In tommorows 7th race at Monmouth, there are two 3 yos who ran numbers that come out of nowhere. Hooloomooloo (first time Steve Krebs) ran a 3 after having a previous top 10 in 7 prior races and I\'m Only Laughing (Tim Hills) ran a 6 after running 2 16\'s in Florida. My first thought was to look at the trainers, but these tops seem kind of unnatural. Besides the \"normal\" vet work, what could you attribute to these huge tops?? I assume reactions to these numbers should also occur?

Thanks,

Mike

Bobby Frankel, who trains Shadwell Turf Mile winner Nothing to Lose for owner Ken Ramsey, said he thinks people are overreacting in criticizing Ramsey for his attempt to get a rival owner to scratch a horse from a race at Turfway Park on Dec. 31. Ramsey was suspended for seven days and fined $25,000 by the Kentucky Horse Racing Authority.

\"These people who are criticizing him - how many of them have given $50 to the maitre d\' at the turf club or Joe\'s Stone Crabs to jump over someone?\" Frankel said. \"They\'re hypocrites.\"

Frankel must be crazy if he thinks tampering with a sporting event, which I believe is a felony, is the same as tipping a maitre d\' at Joe\'s Stone Crab. This is an example of a demented person who the racing establishment does not need. Additionally, a $50 tip at Joe\'s Stone Crab would probably not get you put ahead of anyone.

I think it is a joke what NYRA is doing and especially what they say, as most of it seems like a campaign to show they have been reformed after their federal indictment. If NYRA thinks the $5 and $10 bettor is concerned about who is getting rebates, they are crazy. Bill Nader states
\"While we value the loyalty of these fans to our product, we must take proactive steps to protect the integrity of our pari-mutuel pools until we can know more about the ownership, clientele, and business practices of these simulcast outlets\". If I was NYRA, I think they should worry about cleaning up in house first and explain to the public why trainers like Dutrow Jr, Lake, Asmussen and others constantly move horses up beyond reason, why horses are being bet when they enter the stretch or far turn and why some jockeys who should not even be allowed to jog horses are able to race in the afternoon.

Regarding the rebate discussion, the people and/or syndicates that bet millions of dollars a week through the rebate shops that were banned by NYRA will no longer bet at NYRA tracks because they do not have a monetary advantage anymore. They will not bet this kind of money unless they are getting rebates back probably around an average of 10% of their total wagers. The people who bet this money are probably not crooked and as far as I know, neither are a majority of the rebate shops. At some point in time, these rebate shops negotiated a takeout rate with NYRA in which both NYRA and the rebate shop could make money. That is how the rebate shops are able to stay in business, by probably only making about .5% on the total handle, with most of the money going to the bettors.

I also noticed the Excelsior Casino in Aruba was banned as a secondary wagering outlet. Having spent alot of time in Aruba over the past 15 years, I would guess the weekly handle at this casino is probably about $10,000/week with Excelsior acting like an OTB, taking 5% out of all winning wagers. I do not think this amount of money bet (especially with a 5% takeout) will draw any unsavory types NYRA hopes to root out.

The bottom line is the people at NYRA do not know how to run a business and take care of their best customers, much like it is in NJ. I could bet on-line at any number of off shore sites and get 35 back on my total wagers. I can bet $15,000 a week at Monmouth Park and get 1%. If you were running a business in which you take a percentage of the money that is bet, would you want to reward a guy who bets $100/day or the guy who bets $1000/day.

Although I hate to say it, at this poit it appears Frank Stronach is the only knowledgable businessman as he has not cut off betting from these rebate shops at either Gulfstream or Santa Anita, where most of the money is bet in the winter.

Just one mans opinion.

All I know is that NYRA is notoriously bad when they have big crowds. Been to enough Breeders Cups and Belmont Stakes to know they always underestimate the amount of people that will show up. I\'m sure the beting lines will be long as they will not hire enough tellers (or at least experienced ones), the beer and food will run out at some point during the card and the ATM lines will be as long as when Yankee world series tickets go on sale. This is not a day for the serious horseplayer to be at the track, unless you have a reserved seat, a phone betting account and alot of patience.

It\'s that Mullins magic.

I was at Monmouth when Castledale won and at least three people wondered why this guy never gets investigated. Some of his horses run new tops 1st Mullins that would make Frankel blush. These same people also questioned the ride Flores gave Rock Hard Ten, at least 3-4 wide around the whole track. If Flores didn\'t kill him and Stevens is able to ride him back, he could very well be the Derby winner.

Has a horse in the 9th at Monmouth today named Justabull. Doesn\'t the trainer have more than 13 starts?