It is amazing the frenzy the triple crown creates. I love it! I love the derby trail as well but nothing beats this. In my opinion, we are all over thinking this. As a sheet player, this is the single greatest betting opportunity of all. Let\'s put it in prospective. We have a horse that is likely to be 3-5 at post who is coming off a huge negative number in the derby with a visually impressive win in the Preakness despite a 2 point regression. Hello! That is why we get this information, is it not? That is what we are all here for, to have that competitive advantage in the betting pool, no? These opportunities come around few and far between. Now, if you are disputing the TG number, that is a different story all together. It is classic, 4 races in 8 weeks, a huge negative number,a slight regression, a new track, a marathon distance, a 3 yr old, The only place to go is backwards! This horse won\'t even hit the board let alone win the race. I think we want a TC so bad it is clouding our vision of what I believe is a home run. I will toss AP out of the number completely. I wish everyone the best of luck! Don\'t drink the cool-aide!

Well said. That is all I was pointing out.

Do you think he will be 2-1? With a triple crown at stake?

If AP\'s TG fig comes back -1 I would wait in a line around the corner over night to bet against him in the Belmont. I would love to see a triple crown winner but I have learned over the years to not fall victim to the visually impressive Preakness win. He did what he was suppose to do, now he will have to earn it at the big sandy and to me, from a betting prospective, spells opportunity especially because he figures to be 1-9. Even if he is the most likely winner I will take a stab at beating him because the price is sure to be right and if I lose I get to see a triple crown winner. It\'s a win/win!

Thanks Coronado, I needed that one to get out for the day.

I just purchased the sheets and need to look this race over but at first glance it appears wide open with some big price horses having a chance. Anyone believe Hot Stones has a chance at 8-1? Not sure what to make of the Blinkers on. Thanks

Thanks for your input Frank, this is very helpful. I was leaning toward this thought process myself, I did not know about the 42 days race span for the 0-2-x. I did however wonder how the trip in the derby impacted the possibility of it not being a true pattern.

Now I just have to decide whether this horse can handle the crowd. Thanks again. good luck.

My apology. I can appreciate your request. It was a late and a rambled a bit. I will keep this brief.

1) How do you view WS? It looks like a 0-2-x to me but he is training great.

2) How do you view Chrome? I see him leading this group with 1/8-1/16 to go. My only question is, will he have enough legs to fend off the 3 or 4 in here that seem to benefit from distance and rest. Given the likely odds, I am once again going to play this scenario.

3) What horses do you view as WIN candidates? I am looking at Curve and WS (but could almost toss WS based on question 1). The other derby horses I do not currently view as win candidates. I have not yet taken a close look at the new comers.

Thanks

I first want to thank everyone for all the great thoughts and information on this years triple crown run. After just missing a lifetime score in the Derby, I tossed angry money at the Preakness trying to beat CC again. (When I thought he would jog). To my surprise, he had to pop the clutch and go into 5th gear to get the W. So... now that the sting of the loss is gone, I will share my thoughts and questions I have yet to answer, about how I take on this historic race from a betting perspective.

It sounds like CC could not be doing ANY better going into this race (put on weight, training like a beast, love the track, yadda yadda yadda). All signs point toward this horse being in the lead at the 1/8 pole with history on the line. It is going to take a horse that is fully cranked and whose grand pappy loves the distance to get the W. While I would LOVE to toss CC out with the $$ implications of him folding, I can\'t imagine this horse tanking out of 2nd or 3rd. So that would leave me trying to beat him for the win, horizontals, or possible the exacta? If I am going to get crazy.

For me, I would love to see SI signed on here (even though I am reading on the board that it seems unlikely). Not because I would have a single dollar on him, but because I would feel good about CC having to work a little in the first 1/2 of the race. Also with Samraat putting some pressure on CC from his flank, that might step my wagers up against CC in this race.

So whose going to be my birdstone? Wicked strong is hardly going to be a birdstone do to the fact that many like this horses chances in here. I am mixed about his chances. If I am a sheet player, and I am, he is on a classic 0-2-x. A horse that made a big jump up in a short time and now is sitting on his X. It kinda ticks me off because I keep wanting to sign on with this horse, especially going long and he has been working so good I still might take a shot. Kid Cruz? I drank the cool aid for the preakness, think I will wait until this one drops down a bit. Medal Count, those on the board are having me take a closer look at this horse. I was luke warm on him for the derby, that big jump up made me a little skeptical. Think he is interesting. Commanding the Curve, I liked this horse in the Derby, like his patten here and think he is a player if CC starts to wobble in the final 1/16. Not thrilled at the price I am likely to get now that the cat is out of the bag to the general public. Tonalist, not really sure about this horse, was waiting until the TG sheets come out to take a look. ROC, not convinced he can take out CC. Think he had his chance in the preakness and ran his eyeballs out only to fall short. Not sure about the others yet. I would love to hear all of your final thoughts on this group. This figures to be a tremendous race and I am really looking forward to taking one last shot at beating CC. But I will punch a $2 win ticket and buy the program to frame it in the event I strike out. Good Luck

Interesting that the connections for Kid Cruz are turning him right back, no? I couldn\'t resist his pattern in the Preakness but he didn\'t run a lick. Any thoughts on Danza? I keyed him for 1st and 2nd in the Derby and just missed a serious score so naturally I thought he had excuses. But watching it back I am not so sure. Wicked Strong seems to be a logical contender, curve as well but you\'ll never get the price you did in the derby, don\'t know much about tonalist but hear there is some buzz around this horse. Should be a quality race, I will take a shot at Cali one last time.

Appreciate the feedback. I just watched Smarty\'s Belmont race. He ran his eyeballs out and still lost. How easy it is to forget. His running style is similar to CC and there does seem to be a solid field signed on for the race (thanks miff). You have to figure at least one of these will be fully cranked and there is at least reason to believe CC\'s legs will wobble the final furlong. I actually love the fact that SI is signed on to wear down CC. That makes this race very playable for me.

I agree on your stance with SI in the Belmont, it will be tough to consider him going 1 1/2. I knew when they were loading him for the Preak that I might as well toss my tickets out... washed out, nearly flipped over in the gate, and then a fourth place stalking wide trip. I didn\'t really LOVE his race spacing coming in to the race (especially stretching out to 1 3/16 and reacting in the wood to the big previous effort) but thought he was talented enough to place a bet and thought maybe he had enough time to recoup.

As far as my stance moving forward in the Belmont? This is a tough year for me... do to the fact I have been chasing that lifetime score, that so many of us desire from the triple crown run, for about 16 years now. I nearly had it in this year\'s Derby, if Danza traded places with chrome I would have walked with a 1/4 Mil, if Danza finished second I would have had a nice five figure score. It took me a week to shake it off and when I regrouped for the Preak I tried to convince myself to take another shot against Chrome. I made some bets tossing out CC in hopes of something usual happening, that maybe I could redeem myself. But in reality, the high cruising speed types usually come back to win the second leg going away, it\'s the closers that struggle there. That is part of why I took a shot with SI. Moving on to the belmont, I would love to here some strategies to bet against CC (at this point I am committed to play against, can\'t switch now). I am having trouble because I think it is going to take a distance specialist who is fully cranked to beat him and I think they will be all in to do it. The problem is, the horses who have shot do not figure to be a $75 horse like birdstone or Dtara. I don\'t see chrome running out of it so the verticals will be cheap and I am a historically bad horizontal player. Is there any hope to throw one last haymaker or should I just sit out and be a fan? Thanks, I appreciate all the great information from this site.

Let me first say that I respect this forum and truly value the great information that I get here. I am a small time player from saratoga, I enjoy betting the triple crown races, breeders cup, and the toga meet. I am not a horseman, just a casual player who loves the game. I trust the sheets and could never bet a race confidently without them. I played Danza and thought he was second best. It looked like he got a good trip (recovered nice from the hard bump before the first turn) and started closing the ground on the front runners before they hit the turn for home. It looked like bravo tried to follow Chrome\'s path appox 1-2 lengths behind him. When they straightened out for home I thought he had horse but samraat drifted in and chitu started backing up. It looked like bravo wanted to split them initially but the horse would not. In a desperate attempt to get him daylight (because I believe he had horse but no where to go) he wheeled him 2 paths out (which stopped him as much as it did anybody else). I know that curve ran a better number (I had him on my ticket as well and really loved his chances) but it appeared to me Danza lost his chance when the speed backed up in the stretch and he was getting boxed in. Then again, I may be partial because I played the horse. I don\'t object regarding the DQ, just my thoughts on the horse.