Did anyone notice the exotic payoffs for the Turf Sprint were a fraction of what they should be? Stormy Liberal payoffs in super, tri, exacta and pic 3s were more like a 15-1 shot by my calculations.  Super paid about 1/3 what it should. Possibly he was just an overlay in the win pool at 30-1 but i think it smacks of a massive gamble. Thoughts?

No not really. 2006 was fast and so was 2007 Derby. This is why Calvin has historically done so well at CD. There is often a golden rail. Except when there\'s a bad rail! He will test it Friday and then we will know.

Don\'t forget 2006 BC when CD had a GOOD rail and every dirt race was won by the 1 horse! Street Sense benefited then and next years Derby same thing.

JB you\'re exactly right.  The Preakness is consistently the most formful race of the year to the Derby form run 14 days prior. These horses run the race of their life at a distance too far and come right back and do it again in 2 weeks sometimes with even higher figs.  The new shooters generally don\'t make an impact. How can that be?  Why don\'t the Derby horses bounce to the moon?  

IMO it\'s because we\'ve all forgotten what the old time trainers knew - when you get a horse right you run them.  I have horses in England and I can assure you they have not forgotten it there. When horses win they often run right back in 2-14 days.  Why?  Because if you wait too long they go out of form. We call it \"bouncing\" or \"reacting\" but what we\'re really talking about is form cycles. Of course many horses do react to a big fig but it\'s NOT immediate. Look at the Keeneland meet.  The \"repeater\" angle has been tried and true for decades. There were 3 in one day including the Lexington stakes this past meet.

The reason the Preakness is so formful is if you run them back quick enough they don\'t bounce. And that\'s why there are so few Triple Crown winners. They can\'t hold that form for 5 weeks.  If you want more Triple crown winners run them over a shorter time period - say 7 and then 14 days.

Now you will probably point out that many Derby winners don\'t run new tops. It would be interesting to see of Derby starters who run new tops and go back in the Preakness how many bounce. I think you\'ll see a lot of pair-ups.  My unscientific observation is that when you run them quick they run the same.

bloodline

Check out Mike Watchmaker\'s Opinions in tomorrows Form: \"Bias Plays big role at Belmont\". There was a huge rail bias (not speed bias - 1 and 2 path) at Belmont Friday and Saturday.  Every main track winner came from there including Summer Bird. That goes a long way to explaining GGG.  The 2 who had to get rail trips were GG and the 1 and they ran 1-3 sandwich with the big chalk. tThere were no real closer types who could drop out and over.  This also explains run-off inside winners Just Ben (albeit from 7 post) Convocation, and Munnings.
On days like this its like the old Keenland track - throw away all the numbers and figure who is going to get to the rail.
Wish I had figured it out Saturday. No excuse given it was a 2-day bias.
Bob

i think they have amnesia. the old track at SA was a killing field like Churchill is now for instance.

Mike,

Gotta challenge the Pro-Ride comment. TGJB says that Pro-Ride is turf, Poly is almost turf and Cushion is dirt.  Interesting and I would say not far off.  So why do you call turf garbage?  Why should RA not like it?  Turf is a safer surface and so is Pro-Ride. I have horses in training at Santa Anita and Keeneland.  They are the best surfaces in the world to train over and to race over - its grass. Witness when it rains and comes off the grass – nobody scratches.  The trainers understand this.

You may not like to have all BC races run on \"grass\".  That's a good point. But its not garbage and its much safer than the old dirt track especially SA. True some horses don't handle it just as some horses don't handle turf.  I think we have a good mixture of synth and dirt in this country now.  Maybe California should have a major dirt track. As for gambling if you realize that dirt form doesn't necessarily carry over just as it doesn't to turf, the handicapping gets a whole lot easier.

Bob

Jerry,

A couple observations - 1) these horses still won 38% and were 1-2 64%. As a rule they still fire. Be interesting to see $2 ROI. 2) The 14 days rest horses were a small sample of 6 and excluding Barbaro had 2 Pairs or 33%. Won 2 of 6, 33%.  

Despite the fact it comes 14 days after a grueling race at a distance too far this early for 3 year olds, the Preakness is one of the most formful big races year after year.  Funny Cide, Smarty, War Emblem, Street Sense (without CD rail bias) Big Brown all fired huge - top or no top. After all we\'re trying to pick winners not new tops.

Its always been that way.  The Derby form rules the Preakness 14 days later.  How can this be reconciled to bounce theory? IMO horses are very often much less likely to bounce or X out on 7-14 days rest than 4-5 weeks. Why? Because they haven\'t gone out of form yet. By Belmont time they are very often over the top in the Derby form cycle and thats why its so hard to win the Triple Crown. When the old timers got a horse right and they \"topped\' what did they do?  They got the condition book out and tried to find a race in 7 days and run them back quick when they were \"right\".  Horses go in and out of form and in the old days they would just keep running them so it was easier to see. What you are doing with TG is graphically demonstrating 2 maxims trainers have known forever - hard race and form cycles.  

For tomorrow that points to PON for me. He should run back to his 2nd best Derby fig unless you are right about 2nd time dirt regress.  The old turf to dirt shoot the wad angle. MTB was aided by insane (and i think undersestimated on this site) CD rail bias. As for the filly she should run well too but totally diferent pace scenario will make it a lot tougher for her. Also I believe BD is a sprinter duck out of water here. IMHO.

Bob