Please god let them put this filly away for 3 months

[TonyP.]

If RA skips the Belmont does Calvin get the mount back on MTB? and if he were to win the Belmont with MTB he probably could have been the triple crown winner, (assumming racing luck would\'ve been better to him in the Preakness.)if he chose to ride MTB instead of RA

[girly]

I have to say, my favorite part besides the win was watching Borel muttering \"you have to do what\'s best for the horse\" as he kept requesting bottled waters and pouring them on Rachel, taking a sip or two for himself, while walking to the winners circle.

[jimbo66]

Jerry,

You were right about her last year being a top filly.  And you were right not to throw her out yesterday.  Kudos to you on both.

But your consistent \"gloom and doom\" every time a horse runs fast comes across cultish.  Especially when you talk about \"cringing\" when watching her run yesterday.  And it becomes even more \"cultish\" when you have a bunch of posters on this board immediately after the great performance by the filly yesterday posting about how she will get hurt if she runs again too soon.  

I can do searches on this board for other comments you made about horses like telling me Big Brown was 50/50 to make the starting gate in the Derby because of the Florida Derby.  He ran quite a few more times, including win 2 legs of the Triple Crown.  Horses are fragile.  We get it.  Not every horse that runs back off a big effort in short time will bounce and certainly not all will get hurt.  

You can give RAchel your \"backward move\" yesterday.  Those of us that use the TG figures as a valulable tool, but NOT the only tool, will upgrade the figure in our future handicapping, because she did it while pushed the entire way.

[TGJB]

Upgrade it, like with IWR\'s Wood?

[TGJB]

Re Big Brown:

First of all, yes, he was one I thought would be hurt by the first huge effort. I made similar comments about IWR and QR making the gate at CD.

1-- He had 5 weeks after his first big one, which helps. When he ran another huge one he didn\'t get the rest and backed up considerably in Baltimore (the move on the way out the door I mentioned in my Preakness comments).

2-- There were two possible extenuating circumstances-- he might (ahem) have been getting a lot of help (Dutrow got a Clenbuterol positive with another horse the same weekend), and being eased in the Belmont might have taken away some of the stress and kept him from getting hurt.

[miff]

JB,

Last post, promise. As I said before, if you decide to run for political office, let me know, I want to back you.This whole string was about you predicting that some horses will go bad because of efforts. I never said anything about  my predicting horses going bad, you did. My point,again,is that the probabliity of ANY horse going bad is very high.As you note, this probability may even be greater at the higher level racing but no number on a piece of paper will tell you that with any certainty.

Making a suggestion to stop on RA now, or gloom and doom, is pure guesswork especially if RA\'s vet and Asmussen are satisfied with her overall condition.I would think that a break is in order also but would defer to those with hands on day to day knowledge of the animal.


Mike

[Funny Cide]

Re Big Brown:

First of all, yes, he was one I thought would be hurt by the first huge effort. I made similar comments about IWR and QR making the gate at CD.

1-- He had 5 weeks after his first big one, which helps. When he ran another huge one he didn\'t get the rest and backed up considerably in Baltimore (the move on the way out the door I mentioned in my Preakness comments).

2-- There were two possible extenuating circumstances-- he might (ahem) have been getting a lot of help (Dutrow got a Clenbuterol positive with another horse the same weekend), and being eased in the Belmont might have taken away some of the stress and kept him from getting hurt.
---------------------

I\'m trying to understand your logic.  What are the odds that any top horse will get hurt in the coming weeks/months?  Less than even?  I could name 5 top horses, predicting they\'ll come up injured, and 3 of the 5 will come up injured, maybe 4 of the 5.  But it doesn\'t make me Carnac the Magnificent.  That\'s what happens to our best horses, and the better they are, the more likely it is they\'ll be hurt.  

As for Big Brown, he was battling hoof issues from day 1.  It is both a credit to the horse and credit to the trainer that Brown did as well as he did for as long as he did.

[TGJB]

FC-- you get the same offer I made Miff, find it in my 5:33 post on this string. If I don\'t beat you by at least two with us both picking 10 horses, you win. Let me know. If the logic you are having trouble understanding is off, you should do as well as I do. If you really think 3 out of 5 stake horses will have 4 month or more layoffs following one of their next two races you should jump on this bet.

[MonmouthGuy]

Miff.

Didn\'t deferring to those with hands on day to day knowledge of the animal give us the likes of Union City, who stood lame in ice buckets for two weeks after the Derby before D Wayne sent him out for his fateful Preakness run.

Aren\'t those closest often the most conflicted?

[bloodline]

Mike,

Gotta challenge the Pro-Ride comment. TGJB says that Pro-Ride is turf, Poly is almost turf and Cushion is dirt.  Interesting and I would say not far off.  So why do you call turf garbage?  Why should RA not like it?  Turf is a safer surface and so is Pro-Ride. I have horses in training at Santa Anita and Keeneland.  They are the best surfaces in the world to train over and to race over - its grass. Witness when it rains and comes off the grass – nobody scratches.  The trainers understand this.

You may not like to have all BC races run on \"grass\".  That's a good point. But its not garbage and its much safer than the old dirt track especially SA. True some horses don't handle it just as some horses don't handle turf.  I think we have a good mixture of synth and dirt in this country now.  Maybe California should have a major dirt track. As for gambling if you realize that dirt form doesn't necessarily carry over just as it doesn't to turf, the handicapping gets a whole lot easier.

Bob

[marcus]

I like that , at some point imo eventually common sense and prudence has to win out the day - just like that inevitable random factor . They had the filly in and out of the winners circle seemingly almost as fast as her historic run around the Pimlico strip . I\'d send her to summer at Monmouth , pass the Belmont and if had to show everyone , as some kind of favor , the worlds best and run in this race or that , prep at a PID or another synth track out east before the BC ...

[miff]

Hi Bob,

Long time. Your experience is very different from several owners and trainers that have/are abandoning California because of the surfaces.Kee does not seem to have the same issues but thats a very short couple of meets.Every statistical report that I have seen suggests that synths have promised far more than they have delivered.There is no question that those surfaces(except cushion) penalize brilliant speed,esp POLY.

I am willing to bet that before one other major track goes synth,one synth will be torn up and returned to dirt.Not exactly my garbage word, but for example, Hall of Famers BAFFERT, ZITO,MC GAUGHEY and others have serious issues with racing on synths(not training)If you had been at the NYRA horsemens meeting re surfaces you would have witnessed a small mutiny when the subject of switching NYRA tracks from dirt to synths for racing purposes(not training)

Bob,as an aside, many big/regular players do not step out on synth racing, some still don\'t gamble it at all.The game can\'t afford to lose any players for any reason.

Anyway, I\'m glad your stock is doing well at KEE and CALI.

Mike

[bloodline]

i think they have amnesia. the old track at SA was a killing field like Churchill is now for instance.

[jimbo66]

Cheap shot JB.  That\'s ok.

I am going to give up the discussion with you, as I know this is like religion to you.  

I will leave you with a thought, discard it if you like.  Is this gloom and doom of predicting injuries good for your business?  I will tell you, a few years back, when I truly believed that what you are now saying is true, I tried to explain/share it with some solid horseplayers, who understand the game.  They thought I was a crackpot.  It comes across as wacky, even if you can point to a few examples of horses getting hurt.  Everybody knows horses are fragile.  You are getting to the point where every time a big name horse runs fast, you are predicting doom.  Instead of being known as the guy who makes the best figures in the market, you can get tagged with a different moniker.

Yesterday, you and TGAB put up a $40 horse, a $28 horse, an ice cold triple/exacta with the $28 horse, all by using your figures, and all the talk today here is about how Rachel might get hurt if she races in the Belmont.

I shut up now.  At least on this topic.

Assuming Rachel doesn\'t run, I am now going to start posting about why Charitable Man wins the Belmont instead of this....

Jim

[sighthound]

I wouldn\'t call Churchill now a killing field compared to the old CA tracks (which I think were).

I would love to see Churchill be the first track to spend the money to take off the top, save it, and re-lay their base.  I imagine I\'d shrudder, seeing the cracks and holes and voids in the base I am sure are there.

I don\'t know about anyone else, but I always had a hard time transferring California concrete-dirt form readily to other tracks on the Derby trail.  CA had dirt, but it sure was different dirt than everywhere else.  I just dealt with it.  It\'s no different for me now.