AP a great mover but if Firing Line switches leads he probably wins. Ran the whole way on his left lead.
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#2
Ask the Experts / Final Figs
May 06, 2014, 06:49:51 PM
Scanning the pages... I feel less bad about not cashing the 2013 Derby.
How the hell did Golden Soul finish 2nd in the Kentucky Derby? That has to be one of the worst long term sheets for a Classic placer and consistent Graded Stakes entrant I have ever seen. Poor fella needs some class relief.
How the hell did Golden Soul finish 2nd in the Kentucky Derby? That has to be one of the worst long term sheets for a Classic placer and consistent Graded Stakes entrant I have ever seen. Poor fella needs some class relief.
#3
Ask the Experts / Re: BC TG Analysis
November 04, 2013, 08:46:23 AM
Richie...
Why doesn\'t a billion dollar enterprise like the Kentucky Derby custom build a new 20 horse gate? Embarrassing that they jerry rig a 2 gate system every year and slam the inside horses into the rail. It would for sure cost less than the other cosmetic construction projects they are doing at CD and would actually help the event itself!
Why doesn\'t a billion dollar enterprise like the Kentucky Derby custom build a new 20 horse gate? Embarrassing that they jerry rig a 2 gate system every year and slam the inside horses into the rail. It would for sure cost less than the other cosmetic construction projects they are doing at CD and would actually help the event itself!
#4
Ask the Experts / Re: Question for Jimbo and the board on Orb
April 18, 2013, 07:11:44 PM
Jim I was thinking maybe Shug got off JV because of the spill and injury. They sure made an announcement rather abruptly after that spill when before he said he was going to take his time making a decision. Maybe it wasn\'t his decision anymore and the only choice he had left. Who knows how well JV is really going to be feeling, and I thought it was a convenient announcement that he would be riding again derby week when barely out of the hospital. Broken bones rib and wrist? Not sure I\'d want to commit to him on my Derby favorite with the unknowns of those injuries and the layoff.
#5
Ask the Experts / ADW Sites
December 22, 2011, 06:56:37 AM
I\'d like to look at all my options for a new ADW site for my play in 2012. I\'m currently using Twinspires and their fantastic rewards program. NOT! I think I\'ll receive a set of cheap steak knifes from them if my wagering ever gets to $5 million.
Can anyone recommend their preferred sites to check out? What\'s safe, and easy to use and has a decent rebate program? I realize some of the smaller ones don\'t feature all the tracks. thanks...
Can anyone recommend their preferred sites to check out? What\'s safe, and easy to use and has a decent rebate program? I realize some of the smaller ones don\'t feature all the tracks. thanks...
#6
Ask the Experts / Re: Well...
November 30, 2011, 02:31:37 PM
Congrats Jerry! Stressful I get. I\'m a big Redskin fan and of course was excited when the legend Joe Gibbs came out of retirement and returned to coach the Skins. Well I knew it was never going to work when I saw Gibbs turn away from watching his own kicker attempt a game winning field goal! He literally turned to the stands, dropped to his knees, closed his eyes and prayed rather than watch the field goal. The head coach! And he did this a couple times after he came back.
I say this because that\'s how I\'m getting now watching a race with any kind of real money bet on it. I find myself turning away and not even watching until they hit the lane. I\'m losing my stomach for it, even though I fully realize that kind of nervous energy is what makes the sport so invigorating.
Anyhoo.. Congrats again on killing them in the 2nd half. Nice way to head into the holidays. On another note.. I think you need a new product. Something like your race of the week but more of a race of the day or several best bets of the day, or a wekend stakes package for those of us who don\'t have time, or more likely too lazy to do their own serious handicapping on a regular basis. I\'d buy that one regularly instead the Analysis product.
I say this because that\'s how I\'m getting now watching a race with any kind of real money bet on it. I find myself turning away and not even watching until they hit the lane. I\'m losing my stomach for it, even though I fully realize that kind of nervous energy is what makes the sport so invigorating.
Anyhoo.. Congrats again on killing them in the 2nd half. Nice way to head into the holidays. On another note.. I think you need a new product. Something like your race of the week but more of a race of the day or several best bets of the day, or a wekend stakes package for those of us who don\'t have time, or more likely too lazy to do their own serious handicapping on a regular basis. I\'d buy that one regularly instead the Analysis product.
#7
Ask the Experts / Re: The Difference
May 25, 2011, 01:56:00 PM
Jerry .. I\'ve never been a Rags customer and have only been in the game about 5 years so i may be missing a lot of history here... But it seems to me that a big percentage your posts are about the Rags and how ffe\'d up they are. As one of your customers I can tell you i don\'t care. I\'m kind of getting tired of hearing about them on this board. I\'d rather hear your post race analysis handicapping wise of the Derby and Preakness and what went wrong and what went right from the TG persepective betting the race. As someone who buys some analysis and specials for these these big events, I\'m trying to figure out how to best use your products, and get your takes on your picks win or lose.
#8
Ask the Experts / Re: My take on the Preakness and Black Eyed Susan
May 20, 2011, 01:52:38 PM
It\'s been raining everyday this week in Maryland, so I\'m sure he just preferred to get his exercise in galloping over the all weather track instead of a muddy dirt track. That\'s not unusual at all for Fair Hill trained horses.
#9
Ask the Experts / Re: Derby Live Odds- Bobby, you're killing me
May 07, 2011, 02:10:48 PM
Good Luck Frank! My god i didn\'t see anyone here mention (including me) success building a last minute bankroll from the rest of the card. Hope the Derby picks hit!
#10
Ask the Experts / Re: 3YO Stakes Races Today!
April 17, 2011, 08:50:46 AM
What does that mean \"races them cold\"? It\'s funny I hear a lot of trainers say, you just have to keep them happy and healthy and they\'ll win for you. Maybe not. I would understand a legend going to 10% or so but it is literally like 0% to 1% for him in Cali\'s six horse fields. I know he has slow horses but he\'s racing at the bottom claiming ranks against other slow horses and no-name trainers. Does horsemanship matter anymore? Or is it a California thing?
#11
Ask the Experts / Re: 3YO Stakes Races Today!
April 16, 2011, 09:17:20 PM
That\'s cool for D Wayne. On a similar note can someone who follows the Cali circuit explain to me deal on Jack Van Berg? A hall of famer and legendary revered horseman who is literally a 0% trainer right now! How can that be? Even if he doesn\'t have top stock anymore he\'s not racing against top stock either. Someone please explain.
#12
Ask the Experts / Re: Today's Derby Preps
April 16, 2011, 05:02:26 PM
Damn.. Sekrah can handicap his ass off. Always giving out price winners.
#13
Ask the Experts / Re: Terrific result today for those of us who like Honor and Serve in the Derby
February 27, 2011, 02:02:19 PM
Who was the one on the board last year that repeatedly kept pressing the fact the Super Saver was a toss because he never passed a horse before in the stretch? That one cost me as it sure seemed to make a lot of sense at the time and i bought it....
I\'m learning lessons every day though... ha ha
I\'m learning lessons every day though... ha ha
#14
Ask the Experts / Re: flashpoint & dutrow
February 27, 2011, 01:51:21 PM
Hey Rick...You are making my point for me... i am saying you can\'t afford these high percentage trainers you like so much for a cheap claimer. But forget $5k, you can\'t afford to use them for a $20k claimer either... You better have a good allowance or stakes horse and it better stay healthy.
You have stars in your eyes for these Super trainers but you don\'t want to pay their rates? They won\'t even answer your call unless you have an expensive well meant animal to work with.
Nobody starts out intending to give Pletcher and Dutrow a low claimer. Unfortunately however statistics say that\'s where 90% of these horses is going is going to end up. You only see the tip of the iceberg. These guys have gotten rid of most of their crap stock before you ever see them. How many horses do you think Pletcher or Dutrow have start their yearling breaking in their program before you see a Soldat or Flashpoint on your TV screen. Hundreds.
It goes more like this.. $100 a day and all kinds of vet bills for months before he even runs. Then he does run poorly and you make some excuses and adjustments, he runs poorly again. After a few of these you realize he\'s a claiming animal. But you\'re 8 months into it already. So yeah you got denutted as you say, but nobody admitted he was a $5k claimer until today. Then you might move him to a cheaper trainer who was probably an assistant to Pletcher or Dutrow in the past. They charge a cheaper day rate which seems like a good deal, but those vet bills have a way of creeping up on you again as they apprenticed in this style. Asmussen is the only one of the so called super trainers who even keeps and runs the low level horses as a part of his business plan. He runs bottom level stuff every day and you would not enjoy those vet bills. He doesn\'t cut his rate or ask you if you\'d prefer less meds or vet work for your low level animal if that\'s what it turns out to be.
I guess the point is that unless you have regal stock, at least that lower win percentage low vet bill trainer will get you to that all important point of finding out if your horse is talented at all for much much less money. If it\'s a good horse, you have options. And you\'re lucky.
You have stars in your eyes for these Super trainers but you don\'t want to pay their rates? They won\'t even answer your call unless you have an expensive well meant animal to work with.
Nobody starts out intending to give Pletcher and Dutrow a low claimer. Unfortunately however statistics say that\'s where 90% of these horses is going is going to end up. You only see the tip of the iceberg. These guys have gotten rid of most of their crap stock before you ever see them. How many horses do you think Pletcher or Dutrow have start their yearling breaking in their program before you see a Soldat or Flashpoint on your TV screen. Hundreds.
It goes more like this.. $100 a day and all kinds of vet bills for months before he even runs. Then he does run poorly and you make some excuses and adjustments, he runs poorly again. After a few of these you realize he\'s a claiming animal. But you\'re 8 months into it already. So yeah you got denutted as you say, but nobody admitted he was a $5k claimer until today. Then you might move him to a cheaper trainer who was probably an assistant to Pletcher or Dutrow in the past. They charge a cheaper day rate which seems like a good deal, but those vet bills have a way of creeping up on you again as they apprenticed in this style. Asmussen is the only one of the so called super trainers who even keeps and runs the low level horses as a part of his business plan. He runs bottom level stuff every day and you would not enjoy those vet bills. He doesn\'t cut his rate or ask you if you\'d prefer less meds or vet work for your low level animal if that\'s what it turns out to be.
I guess the point is that unless you have regal stock, at least that lower win percentage low vet bill trainer will get you to that all important point of finding out if your horse is talented at all for much much less money. If it\'s a good horse, you have options. And you\'re lucky.
#15
Ask the Experts / Re: flashpoint & dutrow
February 27, 2011, 09:30:07 AM
Rick.. You better believe you can get a $2000 vet bill for a nickel claimer. Problem is you often don\'t know they a nickel until you pay that out for a lot of months too. That\'s one of the oldest and most true axioms of this game is that \"it costs just as much to train a bad horse as it does a good horse\". Trainers generally feed, train, and vet all their horses the same. there really isn\'t an a ala carte menu. And they don\'t care because you are paying the bills. These big guys just the pre-race vet work is hundreds and hundreds of dollars. A lot of trainers put every horse in their barn on the daily joint stuff like Legend and Adequan systematically and that is expensive. Then they all go on the daily anti- ulcer stuff which is very expensive. Just those two right there you\'re near or over $1000 and the vet hasn\'t even shown up yet. Some trainers do pre-race type stuff for every breeze as well...
I\'m not trying to tell you every trainer is the same. Of course some of the top names are better than the others and they can spot a good claim and improve it. And they are not claiming every slow rat in a 5% trainer\'s barn. They are not miracle workers. They cover all their bases with very expensive medical preventative maintenance, regular joint tapping, etc.. But the big guys always win the medicine and vet wars. And they like everyone else win 80% of their races and money with 20% of their stock. If you own a horse that\'s not that talented, I think you are better off with an honest knowledgeable trainer that is $50 a day and no or low vet bills. You might get lucky and break even if you win a couple, because on most circuits you are not going to make the $50,000 or $60,000 with that horse you\'ll need to break even with the expensive guys.
I\'m not trying to tell you every trainer is the same. Of course some of the top names are better than the others and they can spot a good claim and improve it. And they are not claiming every slow rat in a 5% trainer\'s barn. They are not miracle workers. They cover all their bases with very expensive medical preventative maintenance, regular joint tapping, etc.. But the big guys always win the medicine and vet wars. And they like everyone else win 80% of their races and money with 20% of their stock. If you own a horse that\'s not that talented, I think you are better off with an honest knowledgeable trainer that is $50 a day and no or low vet bills. You might get lucky and break even if you win a couple, because on most circuits you are not going to make the $50,000 or $60,000 with that horse you\'ll need to break even with the expensive guys.
