Question for Jimbo and the board on Orb

[covelj70]

Jimbo et all,

You and I like Orb, we have obviously made no secret of that for some time now.

At the risk of really overthinking this thing, why did Johnny V choose Verazanno over Orb?

I know the temptation is to say that he picked Orb because of the Pletcher relationship but there are two things that bug me about that:

1) This is the Derby, he wants to win it again and stamp his place in history as one of only a handful of jocks to win it 2x.  I think that trumps the Pletcher loyalty

2) I know that he still harbors resentment over being kicked off of Violence for Javier.  There is alot of detail there that I really can\'t get into but I know it\'s a sticking point for him

so, Orb makes all the sense in the world to me but why doesn\'t it to JV?

any and all thoughts appreciated in my never ending attept to overthink this race!

[big18741]

You could ask the same question about Castellano taking Normandy Invasion over
Revolutionary.

[covelj70]

great point, I was really surprised that Javier went in that direction.  At least in that case we can get a clean read on that one since if anything, he would have the loyalty to Pletcher and he doesn\'t ride for Chad as often.

I am not as wrapped up on that choice though as a) Javier has never won the Derby so I am not sure that he knows exactly what kind of horse it takes, and b) I don\'t really like either of those horses to be in the mix as I see this as a relatively slow paced Derby where deep closers are at a big disadvantage.

That said, I was still very surprised about his decision and it\'s a great point you bring up

[TreadHead]

I started a discussion along these lines on another board before things got so uncivil and unreasonable I ducked out, but the discussion centered around comments JV made about Verrazano in the Wood that the fact that he hadn\'t really hit him.

Some people were trying to argue that the video clearly shows he is hitting him, but I see absolutely no reason he would lie about this.  I\'m assuming in his mind, he is drawing a clear distinction between a small tap at (let\'s say) 20% strength vs 100% strength vigorous whipping, and because he was not doing the latter he does not consider it \"fully asking\" the horse.

The next post was someone asking, with those really good horses (known closers) moving in on him and making a race of it, why did he NOT fully ask him?

The next response, which I think is complete nonsense, read \"because he knew the horse had nothing left to give?\"  I\'m sure there is a more polite way of characterizing this post, but to me this is one of the dumbest things I\'ve ever read in one of these forums for 2 reasons:

1) Jockeys are asking horses to give more when they clearly can\'t on a regular basis
2) and more importantly, this comment was made AFTER JV had already chosen Verrazano.  If this horse were truly showing signs of distance limitations and had nothing left to give in the stretch of that race, there is absolutely NO WAY IN HELL that JV picks him over Orb a couple days later, which I think is what you are implying above.

I\'m definitely open to the possibility that I am wrong on this, but a simple read on the psychology (at least to me) can\'t say anything other than, JV knew he was saving the horse and not fully asking him, and he feels that when he does that Verrazano will be a superior horse to Orb, most likely based on the other races he rode more so than the Wood itself.

One more point, not sure how many people read Steve Haskin on Bloodhorse but he had quite an impressive list of last prep\'s run in over 150 that produced some pretty great Derby horses, among them Animal Kingdom, Secretariat, Easy Goer, Genuine Risk, Northern Dancer, Unbridled, and LilETee

[miff]

Matt Muzikar decides who Castellano rides.Looks at sheet figs but mainly relies on watching tons of replays.

[joekay]

I think Johnny V\'s choice of V instead of O is right for these reasons:

1. HE\'S RIDDEN BOTH, HE KNOWS WHAT\'S UNDER HIM.

2. ON THE QUESTION OF PACE, HE ONLY HAS ONE HORSE WHO CAN GIVE HIM TROUBLE AT HIS LEVEL - GOLD.

3. ON O, HE NEEDS A TRIP AND THERE ARE OTHER STRONG HORSES THAT HAVE THE SAME STYLE.

4. I DON\'T TRUST ANY OF THE FIGS OF THE HORSES PREPPING IN THE FL. STAKES.  I JUST DON\'T THINK ANY OF THOSE FIGS AT GP ARE REPEATABLE AND I DON\'T THINK THEY BUILD ANY STAMINA INTO ANYONE WHO RUNS ON THEM.

[joekay]

POINT 4 IN MY PREVIOUS POST REFERS TO GP ONLY, AS OPPOSED TO TAMPA ( where horses seem to run over their heads when they leave that track).

[big18741]

These guys make plenty of wrong choices so the more important question is how do you feel about Rosario on Orb?

[jimbo66]

Jim,

A guy who I work with used to talk about the \"Law of Occam\'s Razor\".  It is science, but it could be used as life philosophy as well.  The \"life intepretation\" of the scientific law is basically that the simplest answer is usually the answer.

Verrazano is undefeated, probably the favorite, and is trained by a guy who Velasquez has made it big with and is a future meal ticket.  

Would this have mattered if Johnny V thought Orb was \"much better\"?  No, I doubut it.  But I don\'t think there is any rational reason for Johnny V. to think Orb is \"much better\".  My best guess is that he thinks the horses chances are roughly equal.  And in this case, \"tie goes to Pletcher\".

You/I as gamblers and sheet players may read Verrazano as moving backwards and/or be disappointed that he didn\'t win the Wood by more.  (or be radical like TGJB and still likely believe the horses is only 50/50 to make the race).  But I doubt the jockey or jockey agent thinks like that.  

As Treadhead pointed out, Johnny V. thinks he hand rode the horse in the Wood and never went to the whip and has an undefeated, potential superstar.

I don\'t think the horse could have run much faster in the Wood, as I don\'t know how many times these \"hand ridden\" horses run like shit next time out.  At one of the seminars at Saratoga TGAB used to say just because the horse had more left in the tank last time out, doesn\'t mean they get to use it next time out.  (didn\'t Big Brown hand ride the Preakness, running only maybe 1/8th of a mile?)

Anyway, long winded response, but I think Johnny V\'s choice is mostly irrelevant to me.  

Unless of course, Rosario gives another 5w/5w ride, then I will be crying and bitching after the race.  (unless Goldencents or Itsmyluckyday win, then I will probably be OK with the wide ride).  My current view is Orb as an \"A\" and Goldencents/Itsmyluckyday as \"b\'s\" on the Steven Crist ticketmaker scale.

[miff]

Big,

Rosario will ride the tail off Orb, stronger than JV and the rest.

Mike

[martoon]

Jim I was thinking maybe Shug got off JV because of the spill and injury.  They sure made an announcement rather abruptly after that spill when before he said he was going to take his time making a decision.  Maybe it wasn\'t his decision anymore and the only choice he had left.  Who knows how well JV is really going to be feeling, and I thought it was a convenient announcement that he would be riding again derby week when barely out of the hospital.  Broken bones rib and wrist? Not sure I\'d want to commit to him on my Derby favorite with the unknowns of those injuries and the layoff.

[Lost Cause]

martoon Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Jim I was thinking maybe Shug got off JV because
> of the spill and injury.  They sure made an
> announcement rather abruptly after that spill when
> before he said he was going to take his time
> making a decision.  Maybe it wasn\'t his decision
> anymore and the only choice he had left.  Who
> knows how well JV is really going to be feeling,
> and I thought it was a convenient announcement
> that he would be riding again derby week when
> barely out of the hospital.  Broken bones rib and
> wrist? Not sure I\'d want to commit to him on my
> Derby favorite with the unknowns of those injuries
> and the layoff.


I also, remeber JV taking a while to round back to form from the shoulder injury a few years back so going by the pattern there it might also take some time to get back to his normal top level..not really what im looking tp play in the derby especially as the fave...

[toppled]

In the DRF article linked below, here\'s a key part:
Angel Cordero Jr., the agent for Velazquez, said he was committed to ride Verrazano even before Velazquez rode Orb, which he did for the first time in the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream on Feb. 23.
So it looks like the only way he was going to stay on Orb was if Verrazano wasn\'t running in the Derby.  
I\'m on Orb for the Derby pending workouts PP draw & the weather and I\'m not really concerned that Rosario is going back on.  My main concern is that Orb gets pretty wound up in the paddock & while it didn\'t hurt him in the Florida Derby, I\'m hoping Shug figures a way to calm him down before he gets to the Churchill Downs paddock on Derby day.  

 http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-derby-velazquez-commits-verrazano-rosario-regains-mount-orb