JB,

Not trying to disagree.  Been awhile since i made the trip, but much faster by train no matter what.  The train has a fixed schedule.  Driving, there's a lot of potential distractions (read "drinking establishments").  Hell, it can 3 hours from Albany.

Enjoy!

Planning to be out there labor day weekend, for the record.

I get it.  I wasnt trying to make any other point other than that I feel the answer is in those charts.   Very fast race for the day, over a very biased track. The figure is going to be fast.  Period.  But to me your question was somewhat of an irrelevant question.  We cant bet on that race anymore.  So the question to me is, no matter what the figure is on Beyer or TG what is the likelihood of that horse repeating that figure next out, let alone moving forward.

For what it is worth, my guess would be the TG figure will likely correlate pretty strongly with the Beyer.  Carried 4 lbs more than second place finisher and won by a pole and saved all the ground all the way.

Buy the data and find out.

For what it is worth, one of the most golden rail biased days at any track this year. Every winner was on the rail for most of the trip, some made sense anyway and some didn't.  If anyone wants to see what golden rail looks like this is it.  Watch the replays, read the charts or whatever.

Think bounce, or at least note that moving forward is my 2 cents.

Been awhile since i posted, but....  That's just wrong, for what its worth.  If the variant is 12 for the entire 8.5F it would be half that at the halfway pt of the race, or 6 pts at 4.25F.  The variant needs to be distributed over the whole race. U can do the math from there.  To really do it right internally you would also need wind direction and speed.

I would think Baffert and Johnny V probably send Medina for the lead and hope for the best, no?

Just sayin...

Just trying to do my part in this shit show.  I got lucky and wound up on the right side of this pandemic but there are many businesses on the other side.  Besides, I like (and probably need) bars as a stress reliever.  So I want to help keep a few of them around.

Watch the way he always turns his head to the right in the stretch and isn\'t focused, then the jock gets him focused and he finds another gear quickly.  Very athletic, smaller bodied type.  There haven\'t been fans in the stands lately so hes not looking at that.  I dunno why he keeps doing it.  I think maybe he is looking for another horse coming from outside him, which he doesn\'t seem to like.  His loss came when he was tucked inside of horses and he didn\'t seem to like it and maybe remembers it.  In his next race, when it looked like he was going to get bottled up and get the same trip, they wrangled him back pretty strongly just to get him a path to get outside.  So you would think after drawing wide they will ride him like he is the best horse, keep him outside and in the clear.  That probably means wide trip.  Its anyone\'s guess how wide.

Depends upon the trainer IMO.  Smart question but asked the wrong way.  First figure out what a trainer “usually” does in the AM.  Watch for any horse who stands out based on that.  But pay attention when someone does something different.  Especially the athlete.

Excessive use of the whip?  She just missed winning.

Pretty soon they will be giving out speeding tickets to the jocks at Santa Anita.

Don’t think that was what he was saying.  They can’t see “All the bets.”  What they can do is rum bet optimizations based on calculated win probability and odds for legs 1 and 2 in the sequence and look for overlays based on win odds in leg 1 and daily double probables and then projected win probabilities in the rest of the races in the sequence and then in ONE PUSH send all those optimized bets in right before the gates open in leg 1.  It is a big advantage when combined with rebates.

In theory, if a track cooperated, an adw site could actually display probables for a pick 3 as well if they plotted on an x-y-z axis and displayed as a cube graphic where you could click on the appropriate z axis coordinate.  Pick your x horse in leg 1, y horse in leg 2, and then click on the program number of your leg 3 z coordinate horse.  Could do same for trifectas.  Wonder what that would do for the bot players, or even the ham-n-eggers.

Thanks for the work and for sharing Rocky.

I will say this about that race, as far as jocks go I can\'t think of anyone better right now at finishing late in a race than Saez.  He\'s always been pretty good out of the gate, but he is stronger now late than he used to be. Reminds me of Laffit, actually, who was about as good late as anyone ever in terms of blending hands, whip, body motion, race riding, and getting horse and jock in rhythm to be up on the wire.

If his wife/girlfriend hangs around the bar and is hot I would start hitting on her.

Yes, I get it.  Clearly in California the start of the race doesn\'t matter at all.  You can be the 7 horse and wipe out the 6, 5 and 4 and since it isn\'t clear whether this cost them a better a placing it is ok.  Or maybe not if they actually fall down or lose their jockey.  Perhaps the jock on Shared Belief should have pulled up or jumped off.  

In any case, the KY Derby is a roughly run race.  I just want to know what to expect moving forward and Churchill should get out front of it.  That\'s all I\'m saying. As a player, in the biggest race in North America every year, I think that is fair.

I\'m already over this year\'s race and what happened and see no point in debating it.

No way this thing gets overturned.  And now we have the horse who won the KY Derby skipping the Preakness, and we have the horse who was PLACED first in KY Derby skipping the Preakness.  All of which is no good for the sport, fans or the TV ratings.  

We also now have \"a precedent\" established for the DQ of the winner of the KY Derby.  Meanwhile we all know there is \"technically\" a horse that fouls another horse almost every year in the KY Derby. What if NFL reps called holding any play it actually occurs?  What about the start of the race?  If they didn\'t take Bayern down a few years ago in the BC Classic then when should a horse come down for interference at the start?

My point is this: Churchill better get out front of this and define what the players and connections of the runners should expect moving forward, and how they expect them to behave after the race moving forward.  There was no way Casse was going to claim a foul and the 1 horse was clearly impacted at a point of the race while he had position and was rallying with a chance to win (not saying whether he would have or not).  But it was clearly a foul, and that part of this shouldn\'t be up for debate.

So as players, what should we expect moving forward?  What about what happens at the start of the race (see almost every KY Derby run in past 15 years), or the run to and through the first turn (see just about every KY Derby run past 15 years).  Is it just the backstretch, 2nd turn and stretch run that \"count?\"

I just want to know what to expect.  That\'s all.  Someone smarter than me or with more time, please let me know.    

What a *hit Show

You guys are obtuse.  I am saying the horse broke, and then stayed on his wrong lead all the way down the stretch heading into the first turn.  I could care less if a horse breaks with a right  lead or left lead out of the gate.  But they are supposed to get out of the gate and then RUN DOWN THE STRETCH ON THE CORRECT LEAD.  They are also supposed to run around the turns on their left lead and run down the straightaways on the right lead.  This horse ran down the straight away on his left lead in his last two races.

This is basic stuff.  

Sorry I even mentioned it.

Guess it\'s Derby Week around here.