Fill in the Blank

[prist]

6f: 1:11
4f: 0:45.6
2f:

I was looking over some files I have in cloud storage when I came across some very old universal pars once used by a well known figure maker in New York.

The 4f and 6f times listed above are parallel on his chart. I\'m curious if anyone has an opinion what the 2f time should be based on the data provided?

[Roman]

23 flat.

[Tavasco]

22:3

[ruthlessman]

I think the run up would be a factor in opening fraction.

[prist]

ruthlessman Wrote:
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> I think the run up would be a factor in opening
> fraction.

True. That\'s why I went ahead and reworked all my charts to reflect a run-up of 0. I should have done this a long time ago. My original charts seemed to reflect a run-up of around 60ft.

Now I just have to figure out how to adjust for the run-up.

An acquaintance of mine actually tried to figure out the run-up adjustment a long time ago. I was playing around with the data he came up with last night and I\'m not sure what to think of it. Two recent examples from Oaklawn listed below.

Whitmore Stakes
2f: 163 (108)
4f: 132 (118)
6f: 128 (128)

Essex Handicap
2f: 120 (52)
4f: 93 (71)
6f: 104 (96)
8.5f: 114 (114)

The first number is the raw Beyer with no run-up. Adjusted for run-up in ().

I don\'t know. The route adjustments seem to be too extreme. Maybe even the sprint adjustment as well.

The run-up for the Whitmore was 80ft. The Essex 60ft.

[prist]

Burned the midnight oil and figured out what I was doing wrong.

Below is the Essex Handicap adjusted for the run-up.

2f: 97
4f: 84
6f: 99
8.5f: 111

Beyer gave the race a 99 BSF. Subtract 12 points from the above figures for the final adjustment if you\'re cool with his assessment.

2f: 85
4f: 72
6f: 87
8.5f: 99

Pace was honest ... not necessarily fast. They got a little bit of a breather 2>4 and then picked it up again to the wire.

[mjellish]

Been awhile since i posted, but....  That's just wrong, for what its worth.  If the variant is 12 for the entire 8.5F it would be half that at the halfway pt of the race, or 6 pts at 4.25F.  The variant needs to be distributed over the whole race. U can do the math from there.  To really do it right internally you would also need wind direction and speed.

[prist]

Pace is complicated for me to deal with.

Thanks for the input. I appreciate it. I\'ll keep tinkering with it as I learn more. One day I hope to be on-target.