The owner of scout stable or Covello

Re: Derby Post Mortem (728 Views)
Posted by: mjellish (IP Logged)
Date: May 09, 2011 09:43AM

Here it is Plastic. I\'m still not over this one. Can\'t help but to feel I let a big one get by me somehow. Thought it was an excellent race to bet and felt pretty good about my chances going in.

DI was very vulnerable having to get a pace to run at, pass 15-18 horses (meaning traffic or wide trip), was a little slow coming in and he did hurt his left hind training last week. UM was also very vulnerable and I figured he would take a lot of dead money. His scratch hurt, but then Calvin\'s horse was way overbet anyway to make up for it. Thought AAA was most likely winner until he drew the rail. Figured if he broke fast, got out and over and relaxed he was still most likely winner. If not he was probably dead. So I had to split my bankroll and pick another Key horse because I didn\'t want to bet everything on AAA knowing he had the rail and I knew better, but I also didn\'t want to toss him and then watch him win. Really sucked.

But anyway, I decided on SHAK as my other key horse because I loved his sheet, he was training like a monster, and I loved how he re-broke as soon as he saw DI coming in the FL Derby. He drew a neutral post and I hought he was very likely to be the last of the speed horses to hang around. I even figured he could possibly win if the pace was slow enough (which it was, he just wasn\'t good enough at 1 1/4).

Of the rest the only one\'s I thought could win were AK - worked like an absolute monster last week, had dirt in his pedigree, bred to love the added distance, outstanding connections, right style, and he\'s obviously a very nice horse that gives his all every race. MI had an outside shot if he paired or moved forward and got the right trip (I had his SA Derby faster). And POF drew really well and was likely to get a good trip, so if he paired or moved forward he could have got there too, although I thought he was really overbet as well.

I thought NEH, MMM, STAY and SOL were better than the rest and more likely to hit the board than anyone else. Was a little worried that SOL could spoil my whole bet and win outright, but decided to take my chances coming off an 0-2-X. NEH looks like a horse that loves to take second and never wins, so I figured I would use him but if he won I would let him beat me. MMM was training well, had lots of rest, a good number to run back to, but not really bred to run a new top at 1 1/4. STAY had a good number to run back to as well and was bred to love 1 1/4, so he scared me a bit but I decided to let him beat me as well.


So the structure was like this.

5x K/K/A
4x K/A/K
4x A/K/K

3x K/A/A
3x A/K/A
2x A/A/K

2x K/K/B
2x K/B/K
1x K/A/B
1x K/B/A

1x A/K/B
1x A/B/K

I effectively used ALL in the supers for the 4 spot, but I only had $1 Supers to DK, TWIN, WMG, CTTT, TTA, DM, SA, BS, MOH.

I also played some savers with TTA and MOH coming in 3rd since I didn\'t know much about MOH and I\'m just afraid of Calvin in the Derby.

The total bet cost $24k, of which half of that was mine, and was a complete miss.

ruthlessman Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> mjellish,
> Can you post the combo/cost for the supers like
> you did a few years back?
> I found it very helpful in putting together
> tickets for derby.

Here is the link to the old post: If it is what you are referring to:


https://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,66214,66214#msg-66214

I got Tesseron off that key last race and Java\'s War..

mjellish Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> If you go by the numbers alone it will look like
> he bounced or ran an off effort.  But I don\'t lend
> any credence to that because the numbers just
> don\'t tell the story here.
>
> When they put up the 1/2 mile time and it was 45
> and change I said, \"No way he can, he\'s cooked.\"
>
> When the 3/4 came up in 109 and change I said,
> \"He\'d have to be a super horse to hold on.  I
> don\'t know if Secretariat could do it.\"
>

> I know the track was kind to speed on Sat.  But
> these were way too fast fractions.  Bode should
> have died at the top of the lane.  He had every
> right to finish last.  The fact that he didn\'t
> fade to the back of the field, dub in, held on for
> second and nearly won the thing says a lot about
> this colt.  He was TONS the best.  I have no doubt
> about it whatsoever.  Colts just don\'t do what he
> did.
>
> I believe in patterns.  But I believe my eyes and
> experience watching races even more.  I dunno what
> Bode\'s sheet is going to look like, but I\'m pretty
> sure it\'s a slower number than his ARK Derby
> effort.  Still, to categorize his KY Derby as an
> off effort or a bounce and try to formulate a
> pattern out of that is just plain silly and
> dogmatic.  To me, this is almost a perfect example
> of where the numbers don\'t even matter.
>
> What Bode did in the KY Derby was really something
> special. Period.  He was the best horse, he ran
> the best race by far, and he took second.

Agreed with every word and iota of info stated in this post...This horse if and when he recovers from this effort will likely be the Breeder Classic winner in the fall at Santa Anita which is more conducive to the running style of Bodemeister....Do not care about any Beyer numbers posted..based on pace and energy exerted,this horse is better than Cat Thief who did win the BC Classic in his three year season.  This was a huge energy race and he carried 126 lbs running those early fractions.  This horse vested Ruhlmann number in the Viking stakes, it has been a long time since any horse even came close to his energy exertion over a distance of ground...Left Bank and Ghostzapper were the others, BUT they did it in their 4 year old season or older.     Just one word..WOW...

Rich Curtis Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Streetbull,
>
>   Again, if the winner has to have the lead at the
> top of the stretch (which, of course, he doesn\'t),
> what difference does it make how fast or slow he
> finishes from there?


Rich...

My post had no intention of putting out some dogmas about differences of fast/slow finishes from  the top of the stretch...  It was just to shed some light about the profiles of past Derby runnings.  even though the impact value of the stats is so small...My intention was that all numbers earned whether by sheets or any numbers only point to races run up to a mile and an eighth... The sustained fractions earned from the Derby prep races is a strong tool to evaluate serious contenders.  But to answer your question...no difference....

The Derby distance of a mile and a quarter is such a rarely run distance....Dr. Roman tried to use dosage to determine possible winners, but his system is so subjective and it backdates sires after the fact...that well...let others decide the usefulness of his theories...

Good luck in the Derby

Rich Curtis Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Streetbull wrote:
>
> \"The winner has to be on the lead by the top of
> the stretch and have the best sustained fraction
> from one of the running lines from the Derby prep
> races...\"
>
>  If, as you say, the winner has to have the lead
> at the top of the stretch, what difference does
> his sustained fraction make? He could come home
> like a turtle and it wouldn\'t make any
> difference--since all the horses behind him would
> be prevented from winning the race by the fact
> that they did not have the lead at the top of the
> stretch.


The following post is from the research and post by Smalltimer two years ago before the Derby.....

The Stretch Call Says It All (676 Views)
Posted by: smalltimer (IP Logged)
Date: April 14, 2010 12:32PM


If a horse is NOT in the top 6 at the Stretch call, he will not hit the board. The Derby is a race thats decided by each horse\'s positional call within the race.
Let me illustrate:
I chose the last 6 Kentucky Derbies to point out some rather subtle happenings during the race. Among those last 6 races, there were 4 fast tracks, 2 sloppy tracks. There was a strong favorite in Big Brown, 3 solid favorites in Street Sense, Barbaro and Smarty Jones. These last 6 races were won by stalkers and closers.
I took all 120 horses and just used the 4 finishers in each race to come up with the following:
IF.....your horse is not his race placement position or passing horses from the 3/4 mile point to the 1 Mile pole, they will not hit the board. Why? 100% of the 25 horses that have hit the board in the last 6 Derbies say so. (I had to include both Brother Derek and Jazil due to their dead-head for 4th in 2006).
Examples from the 3/4 call to the 1 mile call in the last 6 races:

MTB 19 to 12, Pioneer 3 to 2, Musket 8 to 7, Papa 6 to 4;
Big Brown 6 to 1, Eight Belles 5 to 3, Denis 20 to 13, Tale 7 to 5;
Street Sense 17 to 3, Hard Spun 1 to 1, Curlin 14 to 8, Imawildguy 20 to 16;
Barbaro 4 to 1, Bluegrass 6 to 3, Steppen 11 to 6, Bro. Derek 14 to 10, Jazil 19 to 17;
Giacoma 18 to 11, Clo. Argument 6 to 4, Afleet 9 to 6, Don\'t Get Mad 19 to 10;
Smarty 2 to 2, Lion 1 to 1, Imperialism 13 to 10, Limehouse 6 to 6.
25 horses that made the supers and all 25 either maintained their running position in the race or were passing horses between the 3/4 and mile mark.

This stat is even more revealing: At the head of the STRETCH, with the exception of Wildandcrazy guy, all runners were in the top 7 at that Stretch call.

In addition, from the 3/4 call to the 1 mile call, 21 horses moved up and 4 stayed in the same numerical running positions.

Lastly. In the run from the 1 mile marker to the finish, 19 of the 25 horses were passing others, 4 horses maintained their numerical running position, and only 2 horses lost their numerical running positions (Hard Spun from 1st to 2nd, and Lion Heart from 1st to 2nd position).

The last horse to take the lead from the gate and still have the lead at stretch call was NOBODY. Not one of these really good 3 year olds could maintain the lead to the STRETCH call.

I know Miff will like this, but the only horse that did not have the lead at the Stretch call was Giacomo. All the others, MTB, Brown, Street Sense, Barbaro, and Smarty all won.

We all think we know \"how\" we envision the race might be ran. These last 6 Derbies represent a decent cross-section of how they might be run. We\'re likely to see a 2010 version that mirrors at least one of these type Derbies.

FWIW, at the 1/2 mile call, only 56% of those horses in the top half of the field eventually hit the board. Same thing at the 3/4 mark, only 56%. The race doesn\'t even start until between the 3/4 and mile point in the race.

Posted by: aceriley63 (IP Logged)
Date: April 25, 2012 09:53PM


Daddy Nose Best was ridden with ultimate confidence by Julien Leparoux in the Sunland Derby when he ran down now-stablemate Isn\'t He Clever. Gomez has picked up the mount and he\'ll be closing in the Derby and I love the Thunder Gulch in the dam side pedigree. I won\'t talk you off this guy especially with Gomez riding, but I put him in the same category as Dullahan as one that figures to rumble up to fill out the trifecta or super, but not win.


Agreed with the above remarks.   The race dynamics of this year\'s running favors a runner other than early as with the distance of a mile and a quarter.  Any runner who can\'t get the last eighth under 13 seconds would be in hot water when the field reaches the top of the stretch.  The winner has to be on the lead by the top of the stretch and have the best sustained fraction from one of the running lines from the Derby prep races...

Sustained doesn\'t mean the best last fraction but in relation with the early pace that the horse ran against in conjunction with the last fraction exerted.  An early runner can have the best sustained fraction (Silver Charm) in a Derby field.

Daddy Long Legs has the fastest (adjusted)last  fraction from the Dubai Derby,But he ran that last fraction after facing a very pedestrian early pace of 115 and change.  The early pace should be competitive with Hansen, Bodemeister,Take Charge Indy and the sprinter Trinniberg on the front end.

This horse was one of the early favorites for this year\'s Kentucky Derby until a minor injury knock this one off the triple crown trail.  Sometimes, these injuries are a mixed blessing as THAS was taken off the arduous Derby trail and given time time to mature and develop...

To Honor and Serve ran a decent route race in his first try around 2 turns as a 2 year old, then in his next race, the Nashua, THAS ran a scintillating performance in the mile race while being eased up nearing the finish line.  Uncle Mo might had won the Champagne and Breeder\'s Juvenile races,but it was THAS who ran the best energy style that suits the \"energy profile\" of a horse aiming to wear the roses on the first Saturday in May.  This race was huge!!! In terms of indicating a horse\'s innate ability to run well in longer distances like the Derby distance of a mile  and 1/4.

THAS was brought back this summer, enter in a 6 1/2 sprint and ran pressing the early fractions before fading out of contention.  THAS was next enter in an optional claiming race at a mile and 1/8th..THAS ran a great race pressing a fast pace at Saratoga, winning  the race in hand even though, THAS was a short horse coming off an extended layoff off one sprint prep race. This effort was a great effort race as it matched his two year top, if you adjust for age development. ( Some might have a different opinion depending on which figures one uses).

In THAS\'s last race and 2nd route race off a layoff, THAS broke the track record for 1 1/8 distance.  Ruler on Ice was coming on strong at the end of the race, but THAS did all of the serious running early burning an impressive turn of foot on the second turn.  Yes, some will say that THAS will have to pick up 8 lbs from the Penn. Derby while Ruler on Ice carried 124 lbs and will drop 2 lbs. But one needs to look at each horse as a separate entity.  Ruler on Ice laid back and he did made an impressive last fraction. But THAS expended the most energy in the race, thus the most ability.  This optical illusion is what will keep two types of fans in opposite corners for time to come...

Covelj70 posted:

     \"Although I don\'t believe it\'s the case right now at Keenland/CD, in general, I think you need to be more fit to run on the average synthetic track than the average dirt track and that\'s always been my explanation for why you see the first time synthetics to dirt jumps in the figures. I have always equated it having ankle weights taken off. The firt time you run without them (i.e. first time dirt), you run a big number but that can be a one time phenomena.\"

     (IMHO) First off, I want to be clear that I am not dispelling your explanation nor am I putting out some form of \"dogma\" of synthetic track to dirt doctrines.  I am only responding to the point you made for some open discussions. (But some might say that I am posting on the wrong board-....but to have an open-mind is most imperative to forge ahead in our field of endeavors...no??  No one method gets all the winners in a card consistently...)

   To illustrate my opinion, we can use the past performance of the 2008 Kentucky Derby won by Big Brown.  Let\'s look at the past running lines of one of the Derby entrant, Gayego. Two lines back in the San Felipe, Gayego ran on the synthetic surface at Santa Anita.  Gayego chased a moderate pace set by Bob Black Jack, but the early leaders smoked home with a very fast closing fraction for the distance.   Gayego lost by 3/4 length.  

    mile and 1/16th race: fractions of  24.1 48.3 113 142.1

Even though, this race was run on synthetic surface, any horses that were able to stay up close and close with the final fraction of the race were worth following for their next race  as they ran a strong sustained race under the Sartin methodology programs especially on stretch outs to longer distances.
      Bob Black Jack next ran in the Santa Anita Derby and came in second at odds of 6-1 to Colonel John; while Gayego went on to win the Arkansas Derby at odds of 2-1....
   Final times in synthetic racing tend to be more slow as more jockeys restrain their mounts from any fast pace running in the early part of the race and let loose in the turn for home with many rodeo finishes...Final time figures will always underestimate the strength of these kinds of races as no real exertions were used until the last fractions.  For years, I couldn't figure out how Larry the Legend had won the Santa Anita Derby off a slow prep race...until I went back and review the race and realized in hindsight that he had ran a race similar to the San Felipe race fractions of Gayego.

     Running early on dirt with a faster pace requires more energy demand than running the last part of a race on synthetic surface.  In some horses, this will require a peak performance in their development....anyways..back to the Breeder's Cup...

Silver Charm, I respect your opinions on this board. Can you elaborate as to your reasons that a 3 year colt won\'t win this race??

Proud Truth and Cat Thief won the BC Classic in their 3 year old seasons.

I haven\'t looked into this race in depth but by glancing at some of the major contenders, IMHO, here are some of my early thoughts..

The filly, Blind Luck is more suited than HDG at the Classic distance, but she is out for the year...HDG has had a long campaign and some tough races..

Older horses..

The best races this year has been Tizway\'s Met Mile (1:32.4) but Tizway will have to carry 10 lbs more for the Classic and will have to run 2 turns and Tizway is unproven at the distance.

Game on Dude ran a huge race in the Goodwood at SA. Best energy race this year.  Baffert has prepped Game on Dude like Silver Charm in the Santa Anita Derby, in fact, almost running identical fractions.  I think Baffert will have the jockey take back in the Classic, plus Game on Dude won the Big Cap at SA..Some negatives are that SA is more favorable to early speed whereas Churchill runs more sustained...

I haven\'t seen the figures for Flat Out and Stay Thirsty, at first glance, they seem light on figures..

3 year olds...

Uncle MO...seems healthy now and fresh!!!  Next race will be 3rd out, great Kelso race and will improved but has not run 2 turn and is unproven at 1 1/8 and beyond, but who am I to question Pletcher...

APny Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Can someone tell me how anyone who buys the sheets
> can use Mr. Commons?  This is ridiculous.



Someone who uses a computer program of the Sartin Methodology in conjunction with the Sheets to verify true contenders and useable running lines.  Form cycles comes into play in using the sheets and to determine if a developing  horse is going to jump up or tail off...(peaked)

Mr. Commons--6.4 turf sprint- early speed conditioning...
-------------mile dirt route--huge hidden turn move....
-------------Santa Anita Derby--workout race-ran to the mile marker only....
-------------(Sherriff did do this manuever with a horse called Giacomo)

besides at 20-1...I will take a stab....:-)

Well, since a lot of posters are posting their opinions, I think I will chime in..

Pace of the Preakness...I am positive that Shackleford will not set the pace of this Preakness edition whereas he had set the pace from Flashpoint in the Florida Derby. But it behooves one to take each circumstances individually.....Shackleford had set the pace in the Florida Derby instead of Flashpoint because Flashpoint had bounced from his huge effort in his prior race in the Hutcheson....This time, Flashpoint will be by himself setting the pace followed by Mr.Commons and Dance City....Unlike the Derby, the Preakness pace will be strong and quick.....

With at least three early speed runners, this race outcome will be OTE...(other than early).  Shackleford and the other front runners will be forced  to run a faster pace than their previous race, therefore the winner will be one of the best closers in the race..

What better closer than the Kentucky Derby winner with his impressive final fraction.  The unproven router and closer here is Sway Away...Until he proves otherwise....the jury is out...The other closer will be King Congie coming off the Hallandale Beach turf race and the Blue Grass stakes..There is enough pace here to aid his closing kick...

Final Projections...The  Derby winner Animal Kingdom over King  Congie and the best of the early front runners, Mr. Commons....

Good Skills to everyone...

Covelj70 wrote:

     1) The 4 pounds he got last time are significant and he still wasn\'t able to get the job done
2) Deep closers always have a tough time coming from way out of it in the 20 horse field
3) He didn\'t get past the winner in either of the last 2 even when it looked like he should have so he looks like a bit of a hanger to me. After all, he\'s eligible for a nx1 still.

     

Sometimes the correct response might just be like how one would deal with questions that pertains with the IRS...\" It Depends....\" ;-)

Weight differences over a route of ground, it can have an impactful difference as posted by our host TGJB....Doc Sartin would have scorned at us students as being \"adjustment happy\" if we would have tried to account for the weight changes/shifts...In most races, especially in sprints, the differences are nil....

In another school of thought, a high energy horse- one that sets a fast pace against par and one that is able to carry that pace with a decent final last fraction, weight differences up to an certain extent are minimal...In contrast,a deep closer who is by definition a lower energy horse who is dependent on the pace outcome during a race, weight changes/differences can be impactful...

Dr. Fager versus Gato Del Sol....( Dr. Fager and Forego used to carry up to 130lbs or more in some races in their racing career.)

As for \"deep closers\", well, it depends....in races like the Kentucky Derby, in past races, there were some serious fast blistering early fractions, that the position to win this particular race, just might be at the rear of the pack,away from the blistering early pace...but a winning profile requirement might require that the winner should be in front by the top of the stretch call....

In Ferdinand\'s Derby, there was Groovy who would end the year as Champion Sprinter and John Gosden\'s Zabaleta setting some suicidal splits(22.and change and 45. and change for the early fractions, that one of the favorites, Snow Chief had no prayers chasing up front against this pace...while Ferdinand with 54 year old Bill Shoemaker had a dream trip from post position #1 of all posts to win the Derby from  far back...

As for the last point brought up...wasn\'t Alyseba eligible for NW x1 also, and no ...Nehro is not Alyseba....

Archarcharch was 4 wide entering the first and second turn as well as the final turn...Nehro was also wide entering the final turn...But these factors are not what stood out.....Of all the Derby preps, these two made huge moves against the second fractions around the turns...


Covelj70...Congratulations on your astounding victories last week!!!!

MonmouthGuy Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I doubt Nehro will be a price.  He has \"wise guy\"
> horse written all over him and I think will go off
> at lower odds than in either of his preps. I think
> Nehro and Dialed In will be two of the top 4
> choices.


Agreed....better than looked trip..strong galloped out...shrewd trainer..

In most years, the Derby has been clear where you can form a strong opinion from a strong last race or a formful prep campaign....but this year is challenging to say the least...  Top contenders falling to the wayside...( To Honor and Serve-very impressive Nashua race in his two year season with a ultra impressive sustained fraction while easing up in the final sixteenth..) , (Premier Pegasus- closed on a wicked pace and then galloped home with ease in the San Felipe...but is now out.), (Uncle Mo- strong two year lines but didn\'t continued to race back to his two year old\'s lines- now he had GI tract infection), (The Factor-impressive first two turn race in the Rebel who was a major contender until he flipped his palate), and (Soldat-who had an ultra impressive race his first 3 year race but it was in the slop.  Big question if Soldat can be rated and what happened when he chased Shackleford\'s fast early pace in the Florida Derby??)

So does this year\'s Derby come down to who is working out impressively at Churchill Downs??

PS..Congrats to APny on his selections in the Bluegrass...I do not know the stats on synthetics...But many major tracks have turned their dirt course into a second turf course as evidenced by the winners and second place finishers of the Breeder\'s Cup Classics when  they were held on the synthetics at Santa Anita...top finishers were Grade I Turf horses from  Europe..