To Honor and Serve

[streetbull]

This horse was one of the early favorites for this year\'s Kentucky Derby until a minor injury knock this one off the triple crown trail.  Sometimes, these injuries are a mixed blessing as THAS was taken off the arduous Derby trail and given time time to mature and develop...

To Honor and Serve ran a decent route race in his first try around 2 turns as a 2 year old, then in his next race, the Nashua, THAS ran a scintillating performance in the mile race while being eased up nearing the finish line.  Uncle Mo might had won the Champagne and Breeder\'s Juvenile races,but it was THAS who ran the best energy style that suits the \"energy profile\" of a horse aiming to wear the roses on the first Saturday in May.  This race was huge!!! In terms of indicating a horse\'s innate ability to run well in longer distances like the Derby distance of a mile  and 1/4.

THAS was brought back this summer, enter in a 6 1/2 sprint and ran pressing the early fractions before fading out of contention.  THAS was next enter in an optional claiming race at a mile and 1/8th..THAS ran a great race pressing a fast pace at Saratoga, winning  the race in hand even though, THAS was a short horse coming off an extended layoff off one sprint prep race. This effort was a great effort race as it matched his two year top, if you adjust for age development. ( Some might have a different opinion depending on which figures one uses).

In THAS\'s last race and 2nd route race off a layoff, THAS broke the track record for 1 1/8 distance.  Ruler on Ice was coming on strong at the end of the race, but THAS did all of the serious running early burning an impressive turn of foot on the second turn.  Yes, some will say that THAS will have to pick up 8 lbs from the Penn. Derby while Ruler on Ice carried 124 lbs and will drop 2 lbs. But one needs to look at each horse as a separate entity.  Ruler on Ice laid back and he did made an impressive last fraction. But THAS expended the most energy in the race, thus the most ability.  This optical illusion is what will keep two types of fans in opposite corners for time to come...

[mjellish]

And THAS had surgery to correct a breathing problem.  Don\'t forget to factor that in when trying to assess his sheet or the probability he moves forward now.  

I really like Flat Out in the Classic, but I have to admit that THAS did scare me before the draw.  He was fast at 2 and he\'s bred to be a nice one.  He\'s also bred to get the 1 1/4, this is his 3rd off a layoff and along with the surgery he should therefore have every reason to improve in what should be his NOW race.  If he does move forward, which is very conceivable, all things being equal his number would probably put him right there or outright win the thing.

But I don\'t think all things are equal because I don\'t like his draw at all.  He\'s widest in a big field.  True, they have a long run to the first turn.  But the problem is this: to his inside Game on Dude, Stay Thirsty and Havre De Grace have some decent early lick. And to his immediate inside he has Mo - a speed horse and probably the speed of the race.  I\'ve seen that situation develop poorly so many times for the outside horse...  

Assuming everyone breaks well, THAS will probably have to come out running to secure some type of decent early position.  But so will MO, and he\'s to his immediate inside breaking from the 12 post.  There\'s still Dude, Thirsty and Havre to contend with inside, and while they aren\'t necessarily front runners they have enough early speed to make sure no one is going to outrun them all and drop over by the time they hit the first turn without doing some work.  THAS would have to work even harder if he wants to outrun MO, and if tries to do that he probably winds up in a speed duel and gets cooked before he knows it.  So the rider has to let MO go and try to drop in behind him, but then he still has those inside horses to contend with.  Which means he either has to outrun them, or get hung out at least 3 wide on the 1st turn and probably all the way around the track from there, or drop in behind Mo and all of them to assume a mid-pack stalking position - which is something he has never done.  So the choices aren\'t real good.  Go much faster than you want to early, suffer through a wide trip, or change your running style.  
 
So for me, the question isn\'t one of THAS having the talent or the ability to win because the horse probably has enough to be right there.  The question is this: for this race, can THAS move forward enough to outrun Mo early, or overcome 5-6 lengths in ground loss, or change his running style, and STILL hold off Havre and Flat Out who look like they are likely to run their race and get much softer trips?  What kind of odds would I need to get to offset that type of risk?

[phil23]

His pattern from last fall to this fall (ignoring this spring) is uncannily similar.

From his 1st race to his 2nd race he improved: 4.5 pts in 2010, 5.75 pts in 2011.
From his 2nd race to his 3rd race he improved: 1/2 pt in 2010, 1 pt in 2011

Taken together from his 1st race to his 3rd race: 6pts 2010, 6.75pts in 2011.

From his 3rd race in 2010 to his 4th race in 2010 he then improved 2.25pts.
If he follows the same progression in 2012, he is ready to run a number that fits for the win, which would mean he has improved 3.5 points from last yr to this year.

And that improvement of 3.5 points from fall 2yo to fall 3yo just happens to be EXACTLY what the Sire Profile projects for Bernardini!

But I\'m with you on the post and more to the point, the race shape.  It does look tough for him.  Assuming 1 of HdG, FO, or MO run their top, they all figure to have less ground loss than TH&S.  Is 14:1 (best current ante post odds) enough to make up for this?

[jimbo66]

Mj,

If I read the pace like you do, I would agree with you, but I don\'t read the pace that way.

First off, I don\'t think Mo is going to be on the lead.  I don\'t see him as the speed of the race.  Secondly, Havre de Grace doesn\'t have much early gas, at least not to matter to Honor and Serve with the long run to the first turn.  I also don\'t expect to see Stay Thirsty pushing the pace.  I see him tucking comfortably off, with Havre de Grace.

I see Chantal pushing hard out of the gate to make the lead.  The only \"negotiating\" is who gets the 2nd spot, potentially \"lapped on\".  I see Mo taking that spot, with To Honor and Serve taking the tuck, sitting 3rd, several lengths ahead of Havre de Grace and Stay Thirsty.

I see an average pace.  

And 12-1 is plenty good enough for me on THAS in that scenario.

[mjellish]

Hey Jimbo,

I get where you are coming from. But I think Mo is going to show a lot of early lick coming out of a 7F sprint and off his last monster effort on the front end of a flat one mile race.  With his draw to the outside I see him coming out gunning and right up there with the Dude slinging it into the first turn.  

After that it\'s sort of a pointless excercise to try to figure out wher everone else winds up.  All it takes is one bad breaking horse, a swerve here or there and you can take what you thought of the race shape and throw it out the window.  But I am pretty sure Mo will be part of the early pace.  I am also pretty sure that Stay and Havre will not be too far off the pace unless it\'s really fast.  So You Think also tends to be forwardly placed, but who knows how his going to run on dirt with an American early race shape.  

Perhaps THAS can tuck in behind MO/Dude and ahead everyone else to the inside.  But I don\'t make that as likely as him getting hung out at least a few paths wide.  So that\'s how I am going to play it going in.

I\'m also pretty sure that Solis is going to do everything he can to get Flat Out our of the gate and off of the rail right away, and he will probably be willing to lose some ground along the way rather than risk getting this long striding horse stuck down on the inside.  As long as he gets a clear path to unleash his run down the stretch I think he\'s going to win this.  His last work reminded me of Barbaro\'s work before the Derby.  He\'s got the number power and the race should set up for him well.  He\'s my key horse for this one and a single on my main pick 4 ticket.

Now, can we beat Goldikova this year?  I\'m still struggling with that.

[Silver Charm]

Royal Delta won in hand and was dead fit.....I expect To Honor and Serve to be ready to roll also. But this is a much tougher field in terms of this particular class.

If Mott wins both Classic Classic\'s then the Spring cold spell was a long long long time ago.........

[number5858]

Sure doesn\'t look like we are going to get 12:1 on THAS