Correct. Durkin missed MTB coming up the rail in the dim light and slop. That missed call is what started him on the road to retirement. He has stated in interviews he was very anxious and stressed by the Triple Crown races.

What is really damning about American racing is the glory bestowed upon the winner. It\'s really ruinous to game. Also, even if you turn your head away from the subsequent race record of Derby winners their stud careers are also abysmal. A couple of solid sires, that\'s it. I\'ve posted some info below. The concept of owners like Mike Repole (wannabe commissioner of racing) touting a $10 million purse for the Derby is ludicrous and a conflict of interest. There are far bigger problems than giving more money away to rich owners. Anyway, some stud info:

Mage: TBD
Rich Strike: TBD
Mandaloun: Year 1 $25k, Year 2 $20k
Authentic: Year 1 $75k, current $50k
Country House: always $7500
Justify: Year 1 $150k, Year 5 $100k, now private
Always Dreaming: Year 1 $25k, Year 4 $10k
Nyquist: Year 1 $40k, current $85k - $30k jump for 2024
American Pharoah: Year 1 private, Year 2 $110k, current $50k
California Chrome: Year 1 $40k, sent to Japan, current $26,750
Orb: Year 1 $25k, Year 5 $10k, sent to Uruguay - no fee listed
I\'ll Have Another: immediately sent to Japan for private fee, now in CA $10k
Animal Kingdom: Year 1 $35k, Year 5 $10k, sent to Japan for private fee
Super Saver: Year 1 $65k, Year 3 $35k, sent to Turkey current â,¬12,500
Mine That Bird: GELDING
Big Brown: Year 1 $35k, currently in NY for $5k
Street Sense: Year 1 $40k, been as low as $35k, as high as $75k, currently $60k
Barbaro:
Giacomo: Year 1 $12.5k, Year 9 $3.5k, now in Oregon for $2.5k
Smarty Jones: Year 1 $10k, dropped as low as $4k, currently in PA for $3.5k
Funny Cide: GELDING
War Emblem: dead, sold to Japan after racing, only sired 119 foals
Monarchos: dead, Year 1 $15k, final fee $4k
FuPeg: died this year age 26, Year 1 $125k, within 7 years $7.5k until death

Correct me if I\'m wrong, but from reading other threads it appears you profited from the DQ.

If so, your opinion is tainted and meaningless.

Is the Derby a horse race or a spectacle?  You can\'t have it both ways.  If CD/KHRC wants a 20 horse spectacle of hellbent speed dirt horses running in front of 150,000+ fans then don\'t treat the Derby like a Thu afternoon claimer.  If 20 horses isn\'t unsafe, then why is the BC Classic at CD limited to 14 horses, why not 20 horses there?  Also, take a look at the start of the race when the horses in the auxiliary gate all bear in because of the huge gap to the main gate.  Can CD spend a few bucks and purchase a 20 horse gate - because, you know, safety is a priority, right?  Also, if safety is a priority, how about installing a false rail on the home turn so that jockeys know there will be room down inside and not panic looking for space.  This is very common in Europe where rodeo riding is very unusual.

That DQ was a pathetic farce.  Saez was not whipping left handed, the horse bore out most likely from all the infield commotion, the noise, the thousands of bodies, the security standing on the turf course, whatever.  Did he make contact, yeah.  But this \"could have been a disaster, blah blah\" we are now basing DQs on what could have happened?  And we are now basing DQs on what a horse \"might\" have had left in the tank?

The bottom line is that the horse awarded first place was NEVER winning that race. Ever. And that is what the DQ should be based upon.  By taking down the winner is a horse being elevated who had no chance to win.  In this case, YES, and it\'s absolute garbage.  The field could have run four more laps and Country House was NEVER getting by the true winner.  Every horse had a 1/4 mile to get by the winner and couldn\'t do it.

And now, there are threads about Servis surreptitiously using this or that enhancer - we are now conspiracy theorists that the stewards are in the pockets of trainers like Mott, McGaughey, etc?  No wonder this game is fuc*ed.  

It is also why I have moved 90% of my handle to Betfair and overseas racing. Is it 100% better. No.  Is it 80-90% better. Yes.  Stewards don\'t steal races from the betting public.  If a jockey is found to have \"fouled\" he/she is fined and suspended.  Take a look at the YouTube video of the 2015 Irish Champion Stakes. Watch the incident in the stretch.  NO DQ.  Are drugs 0% of the game there.  NO. But it is a tiny percentage, where here, it is 100% of the game.  

I have happily taken my money elsewhere.

The race prior to Chrome was the same distance with the same run up and the final time was identical to the 1/100th.  The winner of the race before Chrome carried the same weight and to my eye covered more distance.  Trackus (I know, I know) indicates the winner of the race before Chrome covered +12 feet.

Chrome Beyer 103

winner of allowance race 95

I read Beyers explanation on DRF, but I find it hard to swallow.  

thoughts?

IF the leader goes the first 4f in 49 he cannot be 8 - 10 lengths off the lead, otherwise, there is no chance to win the race.  Desormeaux has to feel the pace and understand that 5 lengths is essentially the distance he needs to be within the lead. In Keen Ice\'s four two-turn races this year he has run 48.58, 49.52, 50.19 and 50.30 for the first half-mile.

Keen Ice is slowish compared to the field, but has never gone backwards and comes off a nice 2-pt top of 3 1/2 with less than 3 pts of development from 2 yo top.  Curlins develop on average 4 pts from 2yo to 3yo, so Keen Ice certainly has that to his advantage.

He\'s going to be between 15-1 and 20-1?  How about another forward move to 1 1/2 with a 1w 1w.  Might just do it.

If Triple Crowns were on workouts we would have seen quite a few the past 37 years.

Getting to the Belmont with a chance to win the Triple Crown is good for the sport. Whether he wins or not has no bearing on future impact, especially since it is likely AP would be retired if he wins.  

We need a gelding to win the Triple Crown and tour the country for another 3 or 4 years competing in all the big races.  THAT would be great for the sport.

1. Saratoga (first trip 49er/Seeking The Gold Travers)
2. Belmont (first trip Gulch Met Mile)
3. Meadowlands
4. Garden State (new)
5. Monmouth
6. Atlantic City
7. Keystone/Philadelphia Park/Parx
8. Penn National
9. Pimlico
10. Laurel
11. Colonial
12. Fort Erie
13. Woodbine (old & new)
14. Keeneland
15. Turfway
16. Churchill
17. Kentucky Downs
18. Calder
19. Gulfstream
20. Louisiana Downs
21. Fair Grounds
22. Oaklawn
23. Balmoral (1990, still running night t-breds)
24. Hawthorne
25. Arlington
26. Lone Star
27. Turf Paradise
28. Del Mar
29. Santa Anita
30. Hollywood
31. Bay Meadows
32. Emerald
33. Arapahoe
34. Clinton Phipps (St. Thomas, Aaron Gryder was riding that day)
35. Gowran Park (Ireland)
36. Mountaineer
37. Charles Town
38. Delta Downs
39. Los Alamitos
40. Sam Houston
41. Stampede Park (watched 2005 BC there, no live racing)

Always looking to firm up my understanding of 0 - 2 - X patterns.  Looking at the final figures from Derby Day there was a horse in race 2 named No Surrender.  

He debuted as a 2 yo last May with a 23 1/2 going 4 1/2 furlongs on poly.

He was put away and exploded with a 5 first out this year at HAW going 8 1/2f dirt.

On Derby Day, he stepped up to a nw1x alw at the same distance and regressed to a 6 3/4 on five weeks rest.

How likely is an X next time out without proper rest (at least six weeks?)

Thoughts?

IMO, you have to stop looking at the absolute figure and look at individual patterns of each horse and the figure relative to each other.  Whether those figures are in the 20s, 10s or 0s doesn\'t matter.  If you try to relate current figs to past figs you will drive yourself insane.  

Jerry\'s three part series on racehorses getting faster is still in the archive section, but it is 10 years old and perhaps doesn\'t apply anymore.  There is much discussion on depth of the cushion and its effect on raw speed in the archive.  The question now is, why are races with such slow raw times getting such incredibly fast TG figs?

Horses are certainly not carrying more weight... are they consistently running wider?  Are track surfaces getting deeper?

If track surface depth has remained consistent over the past decade, why do such slow races continue to churn out faster and faster figs?  We now have Belmonts with 54 second final 1/2 miles getting 0s.

From Steve Byk:

Main:  muddy
Turf:  yielding

3rd race off turf, all others on

Dayatthespa debating whether to scratch

Same here... 30+ yrs and I can\'t come up with a single G1 turf race every switched to the main track.

This is an historic rain event - can\'t wait to see the track conditions tomorrow.

New Hyde Park has 4.3 inches of rain as of 945 PM, more than should fall the entire month of June... it\'s maybe 3 miles as the crow flies from BEL.

I was curious today thinking if there was any chance that NYRA would take a Grade 1 off the turf.

Belmont Day 2003 with Funny Cide was a swamp... the Manhattan stayed on the turf and it was won by Denon...fractions were:

26.29, 53.87, 120.76, 147.53, 214.16

The Just A Game also stayed on the turf and was won by Mariensky...fractions:

24.33, 49.25, 116.28, 143.28

My first trip to HOL was in 1987 as a college senior to the Ferdinand/Alysheba BC Classic.  Pull that one up on YouTube, one of the great races and race calls (by a young Tom Durkin) you will ever see.  Was lucky enough to get back there again around 2002/2003.  There are worse things than sitting at Whittingham\'s Pub overlooking the finish line... yes, outside the track isn\'t the best, but being inside the facility is a joy I will never forget.