Always looking to firm up my understanding of 0 - 2 - X patterns.  Looking at the final figures from Derby Day there was a horse in race 2 named No Surrender.  

He debuted as a 2 yo last May with a 23 1/2 going 4 1/2 furlongs on poly.

He was put away and exploded with a 5 first out this year at HAW going 8 1/2f dirt.

On Derby Day, he stepped up to a nw1x alw at the same distance and regressed to a 6 3/4 on five weeks rest.

How likely is an X next time out without proper rest (at least six weeks?)

Thoughts?

TGJB: I touched on this in my discussion of Sophie in the seminar-- when you\'re dealing with young,  lightly raced horses, you don\'t really know yet what the top represents to that horse, which makes it tricky.