How can you say that the field for the Preakness is tougher competition for War Emblem than that in the Derby?  There are several Preakness \"contenders\" that probably would have trouble winning ungraded stakes, let alone being formidable in a Triple Crown heat.

I agree that the pace scenario will (probably) be different with horses like Booklet in the race.  But it seems to me like Booklet is simply a pace horse and NO threat to win.

I may try to beat War Emblem, but certainly not because I think the Derby field sucked whereas this field is strong.  I think the Derby field was strong and about 15 of the 18 jockeys in the race rode assuming a fast pace whereas Espinoza and a couple others slipped em a mickey.  It probably won\'t happen that way this time around, but there certainly seems to be several LESS serious contenders in the Preakness than there were in the Derby.  You disagree?

I don\'t follow this comment.  What are you talking about?  What earrings?

I would agree that Booklet will PROBABLY be sent for the lead, as he is clearly one-dimensional at this point.  But who knows?  And what\'s to say that War Emblem won\'t get a cushy spot stalking Booklet, who appears overmatched to me?  You don\'t believe he can pass Booklet?  I would think he\'d make the lead by the time they turn for home.  Whether he hangs on or not is a different argument.

There is no point in further arguing (for those of us who have been) about what the major factor(s) was/were that lead to War Emblem winning the Derby.  It\'s over, he won.  Some cashed tickets, some didn\'t.

I think a bigger concern now is what may happen in the Preakness.  Obviously nobody can predict until the day of the race if there will any track bias, nor do we know exactly who will be opposing him this time around.  My concern is that he may just go out to the lead again and the other riders may just take holds again, making sure they avoid getting their own horses involved in a suicide duel.  They did it once, so what\'s to say that wouldn\'t do it again?  Proud Citizen and Medaglia D\'Oro proved in the Derby that they are fully-capable of running strong races without using wire-to-wire tactics, so I wouldn\'t think those two would be gunning too fast early.  Is it possible that War Emblem and Victor Espinoza steal the Preakness too?  The level of competition certainly won\'t be quite as tough as in the Derby, right?

I am not a War Emblem fan, nor did I bet him in the Derby, but I think you\'re not giving this horse near-enough credit.  Isn\'t there a possibility that he\'s simply becoming a very nice horse?  Sunday Silence WAS considered a very nice horse well-before winning the Derby.  I believe most people thought he was the only serious threat to Easy Goer that year, and vice versa.

I also don\'t think War Emblem will have a cushy lead on a slow pace in the Preakness, but as long as Victor Espinoza doesn\'t get him involved in a suicide speed-duel he can probably be right there again, if not win.  I agree with Mark...he proved that he can pass horses in past races, but apparently just has enough natural speed to make the lead if he wants.

Remember this.....War Emblem was seemingly almost caught turning for home in the Derby by the \"closer\" Perfect Drift who I, for one, thought was going to power by in the stretch.  Now PD did have some traffic trouble trying to squeeze inside of WE, but make no mistake that WE easily outkicked everyone down the lane including the others who benefitted from the slow pace (Proud Citizen, Perfect Drift, Came Home, etc.) and probably was only outfinished by Medaglia D\'Oro (who was too far back to contend).

Just wondering, Jerry....

I heard that your Derby syndicate was spread as thin as guys having 1/17th share, costing them $100 and netting around $4800.  How many people split this synidcate, and how many shares did you keep?

Once again, I think it was a great play by you having War Emblem and Proud Citizen yesterday, no matter how you came up with em.  Let\'s face it...you\'re counting your money now and many of us are reloading, which is all that matters.

I do have a minor grudge however with the track superintendant at Churchill, who year-after-year gets media attention and is regarded as one of the best in the business for his ability to get the main track there to dry out faster than most despite heavy rainfall.  Wouldn\'t you think this track maven could figure out a way to have the track playing fair to all horses for ONE day each year?  Why does souping up a track for big days become so important to racetracks these days?  Do we care about horses running 6 furlongs in 1:08 and change that much?

Gulfstream Park had been notorious for doing this on Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby days, making it virtually impossible for closers to even be in the exacta, let alone win.  They made the track a bit deeper this year, the times were slower, but the track had MUCH fewer big biases this year.

Is the Churchill track super trying to get a Derby winner to run 1:59?  Having a strong track bias on Derby day, or Breeders\' Cup day, etc. is horrid.  Sure, those who recognize the bias are bound to make a few bucks.  But how about the horsemen and owners that have their horses pointed to these big races for months that end up having NO chance of contending because a track super took it away from em?

War Emblem was best, and probably would have won on a track without a speed bias yesterday with that kind of soft, easy lead.  He didn\'t need the bias (I believe) to win, but it surely made it MUCH tougher for about 60% of the rest of the field.

Race favorite?  I cannot agree with that, but I certainly congratulate you on your selection.  I hope you bet as much on him at 20-1 today as you would have if he were 2-1.

By the way....the competition War Emblem faced at Sportsmans in the Illinois Derby was swill!  He beat ONE good horse (Repent) and that one ended up being seriously injured in the race.  Is FONZ\'S someone you consider to be good competition.....a routing sprinter that was begged to go to the Illinois Derby by the agent of Alfredo Juarez?

Either way, you got the money and that\'s all that matters.  Congratulations again on the win.

I use the Rags and have to admit that I concur with some of the above-mentioned criticism.  I see no point in giving analysis that includes playing 80% of the horses at least somewhere in exotics, which Friedman does.

Admittedly I had a very tough time narrowing this field down, but ended up with Perfect Drift and Saarland as my top choices.  I think I would respect the \"expert\'s\" opinions on these big races a bit more if they just said to hit the ALL button for 3rd and 4th.  At least then I\'d know they were as lost as I was.  Sure, I coulda had the exacta if it came War Emblem-Perfect Drift, but I wouldn\'t have the gall to say that I \"liked\" the winner.  

It\'s just like the 1996 Derby....Editor\'s Note and Grindstone were a coupled entry and I bet em because of Editor\'s Note.  I didn\'t like Grindstone even a little bit, but he got the money and thus I did too.  I don\'t go around bragging that I had the winner, beacuse I didn\'t.

I totally disagree.  The premise of the sheets, whether TG or Rags, has nothing to do with perceived biases.  Horses like Blue Burner or Saarland (or pick any horse in the Derby that was relatively far back early) won\'t get lower numbers for today\'s race because they were against a speed bias, just as War Emblem, Proud Citizen, etc. won\'t get higher numbers for being on or near the lead today.  

Track biases, in my opinion, are the enemy of diehard sheet players, whether TG or Rags.  If you have a horse that you figure to run about an 8 in a given race and another that you figure to run about an 11 in the same race, and assuming that they\'re going to be relatively close in odds, you would play the \"8\" horse, right?  But what if the \"11\" is a speed horse running with a speed bias, like at Keeneland, and the \"8\" figures to come from off-the-pace a bit?  Can you honestly say you would choose the \"11\" over the \"8\"?  If so, perhaps you shouldn\'t bother looking at sheets, since the numbers obviously aren\'t the most important factor in your handicapping.

The truth is that most of the dirt races run at CD today WERE won by horses either on the lead or fairly close early, but most (if not all) of the winners figured at least somewhat.  It wasn\'t as if there were some longshots that usually pop and stop that were miraculously wiring fields today.  The more important factor in the Derby was the fact the War Emblem got a free lead, going relatively slowly, on a lightning-fast track.  Horses like Proud CItizen, Medaglia D\'Oro, Came Home, and Request For Parole who figured to go to the lead or at least try to press the pace all took back a bit (I assume in fear of getting into a break-neck speed duel).  The only jockey that was riding a \"closer\" that figured this out was Eddie D. (Perfect Drift), who was a lot closer to the early pace than anyone expected him to be.  It probably netted him 3rd pace in the end, although even a closer like PD couldn\'t make up ground on a frontrunner that was allowed such soft early fractions.

I didn\'t like the winner, but I liked the runner-up even less (not at all).  I think War Emblem looked great winning, but I don\'t even consider this a true race as far as most of the others are concerned.  Closers simply don\'t close and win (most times) if the pace is pedestrian early, just as a horse like Booklet can\'t win the Florida Derby when caught in a suicide speed duel going :45 to the half (I didn\'t bet Booklet either, but just used him as an example).

Basically, I just think it\'s a bad call saying that War Emblem figured AFTER seeing a speed bias, which implies that he may not have figured (or at least as much) if the track was \"fair\".  He won, fair and sqaure, and will probably win the Preakness too if they let him have it slow and easy again up front.  I doubt they will, but who knows.  It\'s hard to perceive what those guys called jockeys are thinking at times (if at all).

I find it somewhat interesting that I agree COMPLETELY with several of you in that Saarland and Perfect Drift are my top 2 contenders, although I will use Johannesburg simply on the chance that he\'s better on dirt than turf.  For such a wide-open Derby, it certainly seems like several of us (even using competing products) come up with the same horses.  I\'m not even sure these 2 stand out on Rags, but they do have healthy patterns and are both 15-1 on the morning line (I expect Saarland to be a bit lower at post time), and that\'s good enough for me.  Maybe we can get an Oaks/Derby double of Imperial Gesture/Perfect Drift with luck on our side.  That would be a GREAT payoff.

This analysis is a perfect example of why people shouldn\'t use both TG and Ragozin sheets, but rather stick with just one of the products.

I am a Rags player and from the little bit of clues you gave in the above posting I can tell that CAME HOME looks totally different, pattern-wise, on the 2 sheets.  I would go as far as saying that he\'s probably one of the 1st horses to eliminate from consideration according to Rags, yet apparently looks extremely formidable (at least on some people\'s analysis) when using TG.

I\'ll make you a deal, Mark.  I won\'t say anything if CAME HOME runs up the track, as long as you don\'t gloat (well, just not too much) if he wins, lol.

Meanwhile, if CAME HOME wins it says more for TG\'s numbers than it does for Rags\' numbers if he\'s nowhere, as there will be several horses that look decent on either product that won\'t be close.  This race is too wide-open to make perfect sense when it\'s all over.

I know that workouts are not a  major factor in most sheet-players handicapping, but I am intrigued with all the hype following the morning preparation for the Derby and Oaks.

I watch those TVG \"The Works\" shows when possible, read all the daily news via Bloodhorse, Thorooughbred Times, etc. and even talk to a few friends in the business who happen to go to Churchill about 3 weeks early every year just to watch the works.  Personally, I don\'t much pay attention to when a horse is doig well, but think that noting when a horse IS NOT working well is much more important.

Anyway, everyone I speak to and most reports I read talk about how tremendous Frankel\'s YOU looks.  I\'m not aware of how the Oaks fillies look on TG sheets (I use the other product, actually, although you don\'t have to be concerned about me stirring the pot in this forum), but she isn\'t anything standoutish on the Rags.  In fact, I would go as far as saying that both Take Charge Lady and possibly Imperial Gesture look more formidable (the latter is a tough call, as Ragozin has no approx. #s for her races in Dubai, but her BC effort at 2 was so good that she merits my respect tomorrow).

The problem I have with the glowing reports about YOU, and the just average reports about TAKE CHARGE LADY are that they come from people who probably have never seen either of these fillies work prior to 2 weeks ago.  Basically, it\'s altogether possible that this is the way these fillies ALWAYS look in the mornings.  Does anyone in this forum have any idea as to how YOU and TAKE CHARGE LADY normally look in their works?  I know that Kenny McPeek was quoted as saying that he didn\'t think Churchill was TCL\'s favorite surface, and that she didn\'t handle it great last year as a 2yo in the mud.  The Rag number she got for that effort really wasn\'t bad, which leads me to not pay too much attention to McPeek\'s comments.

My whole agenda here is to try to make a score on the Oaks/Derby double, mainly trying to beat Harlan\'s Holiday and Came Home in the Derby, while not having to go too deep in the Oaks.  Any thoughts on the double, or insight as to how the aforementioned fillies normally look in the mornings?

Mark, ya gotta believe in that stuff for it to actually happen.  I think it was actually Irwin\'s bad karma coming around to get him, lol!

Good luck in the Oaks and Derby.  By the way....any thoughts from you (or anyone reading this) on Imperial Gesture in the Oaks?  She\'s a bit of a mystery, but must be a decent filly to handle Tempera.

Ah, the good fellings just keep on coming.  I have never been a Baffert fan or supporter, nor have I disliked him.  But I am NOW a Baffert fan.  Truly a tremendous job on screwing Barry Irwin.  

I laughed my ass off when I read about Baffert deciding last-minute to enter Danthebluegrassman (a horse that looks hopelessly \"slow\" compared to most of the other Derby hopefuls), which knocks Windward Passage from the field.  I feel badly for Steve Asmussen and any minority Team Valor owners of \'Passage\', but the fact that Irwin basically wasted his time, money, and concern for the past several weeks in hopes of a KY Derby win is awesome.  Bravo Baffert!  I hope you have a chance to do it to Barry Irwin again next year.

By the way.....does Irwin have to relinquish his seats at Churchill for Saturday in the same manner that Drysdale had to give up his courtesy car?  I\'m still looking for some good seats.