well done thorograph

[Michael D.]

Given the speed bias of the Churchill strip today, it was impossible to make accurate selections for the Derby three days in advance. I do think, however, that if you applied the Thorograph analysis to a speed favoring track, you could have made some serious money here (which I did not)......
I give the Thorograph analysis an A this year........

I do think that the closers had absolutely no chance today. If you look at the chart, all the closers were nowhere to be seen. I give Baffert and the Thoroughbred Corp a ton of credit for the brilliant purchase and the fine training job. I am quite sure, however, that the successful speed horses today will find things much more difficult in the future.

[Mall]

Agreed. Equally important, if not more important, is the fact that the TG nos, particularly from 2 races ago, were proved more accurate. Rags had WE making a massive fwd move in the Ill derby & looking like a classic bounce candidate. TG had WE pairing up in the Ill derby, a huge difference IMHO.

Does it not seem possible after the race that Dan was entered to eliminate a possible contender? It would be interesting to know if anyone covered the $15k Pegram put up to enter the horse.

In addition to never showing probable double prices, CD surely has some of the worst Stews in the country. Mr John shld have been dqued & would have been at just about every other track in the country.

[kev]

I got my azz tore up today on the derby.

[Tim B.]

I totally disagree.  The premise of the sheets, whether TG or Rags, has nothing to do with perceived biases.  Horses like Blue Burner or Saarland (or pick any horse in the Derby that was relatively far back early) won\'t get lower numbers for today\'s race because they were against a speed bias, just as War Emblem, Proud Citizen, etc. won\'t get higher numbers for being on or near the lead today.  

Track biases, in my opinion, are the enemy of diehard sheet players, whether TG or Rags.  If you have a horse that you figure to run about an 8 in a given race and another that you figure to run about an 11 in the same race, and assuming that they\'re going to be relatively close in odds, you would play the \"8\" horse, right?  But what if the \"11\" is a speed horse running with a speed bias, like at Keeneland, and the \"8\" figures to come from off-the-pace a bit?  Can you honestly say you would choose the \"11\" over the \"8\"?  If so, perhaps you shouldn\'t bother looking at sheets, since the numbers obviously aren\'t the most important factor in your handicapping.

The truth is that most of the dirt races run at CD today WERE won by horses either on the lead or fairly close early, but most (if not all) of the winners figured at least somewhat.  It wasn\'t as if there were some longshots that usually pop and stop that were miraculously wiring fields today.  The more important factor in the Derby was the fact the War Emblem got a free lead, going relatively slowly, on a lightning-fast track.  Horses like Proud CItizen, Medaglia D\'Oro, Came Home, and Request For Parole who figured to go to the lead or at least try to press the pace all took back a bit (I assume in fear of getting into a break-neck speed duel).  The only jockey that was riding a \"closer\" that figured this out was Eddie D. (Perfect Drift), who was a lot closer to the early pace than anyone expected him to be.  It probably netted him 3rd pace in the end, although even a closer like PD couldn\'t make up ground on a frontrunner that was allowed such soft early fractions.

I didn\'t like the winner, but I liked the runner-up even less (not at all).  I think War Emblem looked great winning, but I don\'t even consider this a true race as far as most of the others are concerned.  Closers simply don\'t close and win (most times) if the pace is pedestrian early, just as a horse like Booklet can\'t win the Florida Derby when caught in a suicide speed duel going :45 to the half (I didn\'t bet Booklet either, but just used him as an example).

Basically, I just think it\'s a bad call saying that War Emblem figured AFTER seeing a speed bias, which implies that he may not have figured (or at least as much) if the track was \"fair\".  He won, fair and sqaure, and will probably win the Preakness too if they let him have it slow and easy again up front.  I doubt they will, but who knows.  It\'s hard to perceive what those guys called jockeys are thinking at times (if at all).

[Anonymous User]

I think you aren\'t seriously considering the nature of the track and competition on Illinois Derby Day. The winner you are bad mouthing came home better than anything in the Derby. You never know when value is gonna sprout up. In my mind the winner should have been the race favorite.

[Anonymous User]

Interesting post. The truth is the horses essentially ran one two three around the track. The strip was fast and the pace legitimate but not scalding. But the horse that graded out best for me on pace, stamina and breeding was the winner.  I haven\'t been using T-Graph Red Board lately too busy. But I have a number for the Illinois Derby that I believe puts T-Graphs number way too slow. I\'ll see tomorrow. The Derby winner was a good horse. You all just didn\'t believe it cause he got good in Illinois.

[Tim B.]

Race favorite?  I cannot agree with that, but I certainly congratulate you on your selection.  I hope you bet as much on him at 20-1 today as you would have if he were 2-1.

By the way....the competition War Emblem faced at Sportsmans in the Illinois Derby was swill!  He beat ONE good horse (Repent) and that one ended up being seriously injured in the race.  Is FONZ\'S someone you consider to be good competition.....a routing sprinter that was begged to go to the Illinois Derby by the agent of Alfredo Juarez?

Either way, you got the money and that\'s all that matters.  Congratulations again on the win.

[kev]

Before this race he paired up 1\'s i guess maybe he threw in another one. Say if he did run the 1.0 and PC was 4L. back and say they saved the same amount of ground whats PC number??

[Michael D.]

Tim, are you saying that War Emblem, Proud Citizen, Medaglia, and Request for Parole didn\'t figure more because the track favored speed ?

Are you saying that Saarland, Castle, Essence, and the other closers didn\'t figure a bit less because of the speed favoring track ? That simply does not make sense

I understand that War emblem being loose on the lead played a major role in the outcome, but to say the speed favoring strip played no role is just stupid.

If the race was run on Friday, over the slow drying out track, I can guarantee you a few of the speed horses would not have run as well, and a few of the closers would have been closer.

But I think we all agree that War Emblem deserves his due, a very nice derby win.(my personal figure would be somewhere in the 2 range, I have not seen a good replay yet)

[Michael D.]

Tim, now that I read your message again, I am even more confused. You say you totally disagree with me, then you say that the sheet analysis (both Rags and TG) have nothing to do with a preceived track bias. That is exactly my point. I think that TG listing War Emblem as a contender was nice handicapping.They made that pick three days in advance, not knowing what the track condition would be (also not knowing that Buddha and Dan would be scratched). When the track showed a speed bias, I think a handicapper should have used their own knowledge, and moved the speed horses up a bit, and downgraded the closers a bit. Thorograph can not make our bets for us, but I think they provided an excellent foundation for wise handicappers to have a shot in the race