Candy Ride earned a 123 in the 2003 Pacific Classic.

http://www.lanesend.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/DRF-Racing-PPs-Candy-Ride.pdf

Medaglia d\'Oro earned a 120 in the \'02 Jim Dandy.

Six horses were within 4 1/4 lengths of the lead after 6 f. They finished 1-3-12-14-15-18.

Not sure how anyone soups up a track that was on the business end of a 15-minute torrent 90 minutes prior to post. Too big a variable to account for that close to the race. Whatever contrivance CD *might* have had in mind was undone in that pelting rainstorm.

Nyquist survived that pace on the level. Pace dynamics, imo, are more impactful than ground loss for young horses. Pharoah ran a terrific race but at no point was he made uncomfortable. Straining after 45/1:10, on the other hand, is never comfortable. The two performances were not incomparable.

Only three Derby winners have X\'d since 1993 -- Orb, Barbaro and Monarchos.

You recollection of the pace in Point Given\'s Derby is correct. However, I have a very hard time cutting PG slack over his performance given that Congaree finished well ahead of him despite being closer to the pace.

Whether PG\'s fade was due to insufficient conditioning can\'t be known for sure. Same thing with Lookin At Lucky. He definitely had early trouble, but it\'s optimistic to assume that a clean trip places him in the money. There\'s simply no way to know for sure. Gotta play the ball where it lies.

Good catch. I misread my own spreadsheet. Gen. Challenge had 4 starts.

That makes Baffert w/ 3 preps 10-2-1-2. 20% win, 50% ITM.

4 preps: 10-1-2-0. 10% win, 30% ITM.

Worth noting that his lone 4-start winner was War Emblem, who he inherited from another trainer.

2 preps is still 4-0-0-0-0.

Fair game to say Liaison had just 2 real starts. But he was prepared and entered for three. That\'s Baffert\'s aim w/ horses that have good 2YO form.

Not sure I\'d count California Chrome as 3-prepper. That\'s more of a calendar fluke than anything. He took a break on Nov. 1 and raced 4 times before the Derby, starting Dec. 22.

No sir. The \"keeping him fresh for the TC\" stuff was post-scratch spin. He planned to run in one of the early San races and scratched out.

What\'s more, Baffert said the \"keeping him fresh for the TC\" plan was dumb. Only a fool takes the Kentucky Derby for granted.

What you say is true. Nevertheless, Point Given didn\'t finish like he was capable of finishing in peak form. He wound up nearly 7 lengths out of 3rd.

Maybe I\'m not getting what you\'re saying re: the points system, but it seems that the change has compelled trainers to considering running more, not less. Big 2YO earnings would allow a guy to coast into the field in years past. Now he\'s got to run to show that his horse\'s A+ form has carried over.

Nonetheless, it seems clear to me that Baffert prefers his horses to enter the Derby with plenty of race fitness. He\'s been far more likely to go with 4 preps than 2 preps.

I could be wrong, but I\'m not buying that he chose to run just two preps with Pharoah. Every time he\'s had a horse w/ elite 2YO form, he\'s scheduled three 3YO preps -- unless circumstances forbade doing so.

Pharoah might be so superduper that it won\'t matter, but Baffert is, by his standards, running a short horse. Probably could\'ve gotten away with it last year. But this year?

Dortmund had a fine 2YO season. He got three preps. Seems irrational to presume that Pharoah needed fewer, all things being equal.

Further further ciphering shows that Point Given raced six times between Aug. and Dec. of his 2YO season. Didn\'t matter. He was a short horse on D-day and ran like it.

Baffert planned to run PG in the San Rafael or Santa Catalina but scratched due to a minor physical problem. Point is, he wanted to give PG three preps.

I don\'t remember if there were similar circumstances in Lookin At Lucky\'s case. It\'s impossible to say what Lucky would\'ve done with a clean trip in the 2010, but it\'s dangerous to assume overmuch.

All we know for sure is that both Lucky and PG were monsters in the Preakness. PG clearly needed the race, imo. Lucky, who knows?

Either way, there\'s no denying that three preps has worked MUCH better than two in Baffert\'s case. There\'s also no denying that Pharoah has had only 2 races in 7 months -- which is not the Baffert MO -- and that both were easy from a competition standpoint.

I don\'t mean to steer the conversation away from the Thoroverse, but trainer patterns and such seem relevant too.

I\'ve got 11 Bafferts with 3 starts:

Silver Charm
Real Quiet
Indian Charlie
Prime Timber
Excellent Meeting
General Challenge
Captain Steve
Congaree
Pioneerof the Nile
Conveyance
Liaison

Only 4 w/ 2 starts: Chitu, Lucky, Indian Express and Point Given.

Can\'t see lumping the 2-start crowd in w/ the 3-starters. The best finish by a 2-starter was the distant 5th by Point Given.

The sample size is small because Baffert wants it that way. Two starts clearly are not his preferred MO.

It\'s one thing to skip a start by choice, quite another by necessity. The suspensory injury that knocked AP out of the Juvenile took a long time to come around.

Baffert likes his Derby horses wound tight. Two races in 7 months isn\'t real tight.

Here\'s a knock: Baffert is winless in four starts w/ horses off two preps. Point Given, 5th, was his best finished. The others are Indian Express, Lookin At Lucky and Chitu.

Three starts is his sweet spot: 11-2-1-2 (w/ a 4th, 5th & 6th for good measure).

Four starts: 9-1-2-0. He inherited War Emblem from another trainer. Cavonnier was his first Derby horse. Bodemeister didn\'t race at 2.

War Emblem, 2002.

Funny how the rest angle doesn\'t seem to help Pletcher at all. In fact, seven of his eight top-4 finishes came of three weeks rest.

With three weeks off, he\'s 21-1-2-2-2.

With 4+ weeks, he\'s 17-0-0-1-0.

He babies his horses into the Derby too much, imo. The three-week crew is tougher, tighter and clearly perform better -- no matter what their odds.Three of those 7 were 30-1 or higher. It\'d probably be 4 of 7 if Impeachment hadn\'t been coupled in 2001.