any early thoughts on pace?

[Chas04]

I know this isn\'t earth shattering or anything but the way AP glides to the lead in the Frontrunner makes me believe he will be sitting 1-3. His natural speed in a gallop seems to be just head & shoulders above the other speed types. I think the goal is to rate...but wouldn\'t be surprised if Victor just went for the wire job after the first turn a la Bode.

[smalltimer]

I won\'t disagree sek.  I don\'t see Firing Line trying to go the front cause there\'s too many fast ones, but I know Stevens won\'t turn down a good early position if things are clean coming out of the gate.
The start is so chaotic that just obtaining a decent/good spot in the run up to the turn is a big advantage for most of the field.  
I don\'t know if Smith tried to sent Palace to the front cause I haven\'t watched the race since it ran, but sometimes those horses get excited and just pull the jockey with them.
So many horses get jostled, bumped, checked out of the gate and then the contact running up to the turn, the best a jockey can hope for is get out clean and try to have the horse avoid contact.
Again, a very weak opinion on my part because none of us really know.

[joemama]

And the last wire to wire job in the Kentucky Derby on a fast track was when?

[miff]

Pizza,

Little chance of slow early first part with many sent just to secure a spot and avoid being wide into first turn.Think Dortmund was in front by default and is not a confirmed wire type, whereas AP maybe is notwithstanding he sat off a run off horse last out in a much smaller field.

Top jockeys in this race with fast horses, think pace more apt to be fast than slow.If AP is really felt to be the second coming, think he goes hard and tries to get lead and wire or lay right off a horse.

Mike

[Strike]

Regarding pace -- now that American Pharaoh trailed one horse named Bridget\'s Big Luvy (!) at 38-1 in a first quarter in 22.3 -- he is now a declared rater by Baffert and many others and does not need the lead. I don\'t believe it. I agree Dortmund will try to get the lead and will probably succeed in very fast fractions. He wants the lead and cannot risk getting stopped along the way because he is so big.

My question is what will Baffert \"really\" want the 2 jocks to do? American Pharaoh may try to rate and maybe he can but jury is still very much out as far as I am concerned. Doubt they will cook each other but brother -- if Dortmund can\'t last and American Pharaoh can\'t really rate behind good horses -- any exotic bet will be very generous indeed.

[joemama]

they added blinkers to the horse for the race.

[vagrant]

War Emblem, 2002.

[beazley]

I\'ll make a prediction that neither Carpe Diem or Upstart will be close to the pace.  I can see all of these being ahead of them: Dort, AP, Firing Line, Materiality, Stanford, Mr Z, Ocho and Bolo.  Haven\'t decided if this is good or bad but leaning bad since rough wide trips can happen ala Bc Juvy.

[HP]

Wow, started this thread and went to a dinner for work.  I\'ve quickly read through all of this and I guess what I see is a lot of the fastest horses like to run the same kind of race.  Pace collapse seems like a real possibility.  That said it\'s going to be hard to bite on some of the closers in here that seem slower going in and I also think it\'s possible one of the pacesetters will hang around in deep stretch.  That is a fairly common \"race shape\" for the Derby.  Bodemeister/I\'ll Have Another and...Closing Argument/Giacomo spring to mind.  

Just watching the races I liked the move Frosted made.  That looked like a Derby winning type move to me.  Also...Mujathahib (sp?).  I know all the knocks but he looked like he was really rockin late.  If he learns how to change leads and gets something decent to eat he\'s a real possibility, and if he was first lasix I might be all done handicapping given the depth of the field and how much money I could blow through here.  

After looking at the sheets and filtering through this pace string (I broke down today and bought them even though I swore I would wait) I have a few first impressions.  If I have to pick between the Bafferts I like APharoah and not Dortmund.  I like Frosted and Materiality.  I liked Tencendur a little but seeing that pattern he will be outclassed on the front end and I don\'t think he\'s going to learn how to run differently.  I can\'t quite decide on Carpe Diem.  And given the pace possibilities IStar, Mujawhohah and...Far Right may be good \"unders.\"

[HP]

Last thought for 2nite.  Given how crappy Baffert does with horses on three weeks rest I may toss both of them even though it looked like Victor could have taken a nap at the end.

[smalltimer]

HP,
Agree with the early portion of your post.  Your post was on the board for over an hour before the first guy tackled it.  Its the type of subject where you can really get your ass handed to you by the crowd, because its all just opinions in a 20 horse field.
I also agree a guy can toss a lot of coin at this thing and either have a helluva hit or really get pasted because of the quality of depth.

[jbelfior]

I\'m guessing Stanford gets sent.

Good Luck,
Joe B

[joemama]

Another Baffert runner.  Seems like his runners are need to lead types.e. g. Bodiemeister. This years field doesn\'t seem to be shaping up to have a wire to wire winner.  That\'s also easily said as that occurs so infrequently.

[pizzalove]

Bodemeister almost won because he got an easy lead.  The other speed horse in the race in another moment of derby brilliance decided not to go with him and bodemeister almost stole that race.  That is what I worry about here.  All the jocks and trainers hear is speed, speed, speed, and they all advise to keep their horses just off and then someone like AP gets and easy lead again and tries to slow it down.  Hope and pray that doesn\'t happen but I am cutting my derby betting 25% because that is what I fear will happen.

[miff]

Pizza,

Easy lead?? Bodemeister ran the 5 fastest splits in the history of the derby, 45 change 1.09 change

....tough crowd here.

Mike