Computer-Robotic Wagering

[Mathcapper]

TGJB Wrote:
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> I didn\'t hit that race but I played it, and had
> the right idea. The Pletcher favorite was first
> time turf with a terrible pattern, and there were
> a ton of live longshots. I made a 5 horse exacta,
> tri and super box, I think only one horse I used
> was less than 20-1. I did use the one that made a
> right turn mid stretch, but did not use the
> eventual winner.
>

Spoke with Uncle Bill earlier - he hadn\'t yet seen your post and told me the exact same story about how he played the race.

[FrankD.]

Further proof that great minds think alike!!!

[joekay]

Don\'t know if this is apropos or not, but in the 2012 KD I hit the SFA for $1.  It paid $48K+.  IHA was I think 19-1, Bode ( fave ) 3-1?) Dullahan (single digit, I think) and Went the Day Well I think was something like 25-1.  While waiting for the photo, my friends were telling me it would probably pay somewhere around 30K-40K for $2.  When it came back at 96+K for $2, I was happily surprised of course.  I\'m not sure I\'ve remembered the odds correctly, but that certainly makes up for a lot of ones that comeback lighter than expected.  By the way, after betting Win and Exacta\'s on the race, I had $12 left on my voucher, and played IFA and Bode over the other 2, for a 2/4/4/4 ticket.  I learned a lesson that day:when you have a strong opinion, don\'t be timid.

[SoCalMan2]

joekay Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Don\'t know if this is apropos or not, but in the
> 2012 KD I hit the SFA for $1.  It paid $48K+.  IHA
> was I think 19-1, Bode ( fave ) 3-1?) Dullahan
> (single digit, I think) and Went the Day Well I
> think was something like 25-1.  While waiting for
> the photo, my friends were telling me it would
> probably pay somewhere around 30K-40K for $2.
> When it came back at 96+K for $2, I was happily
> surprised of course.  I\'m not sure I\'ve remembered
> the odds correctly, but that certainly makes up
> for a lot of ones that comeback lighter than
> expected.  By the way, after betting Win and
> Exacta\'s on the race, I had $12 left on my
> voucher, and played IFA and Bode over the other 2,
> for a 2/4/4/4 ticket.  I learned a lesson that
> day:when you have a strong opinion, don\'t be
> timid.

Unless very favorite laden (like this year), superfecta in Derby always pays well because you have 20 betting interests.  That exponentially increases the possible combinations which means the betting pool is stretched over a way larger amount of possible bets than any other race you can bet in America.

[Mathcapper]

I responded to a post about this last spring in reference to the perceived light payoff in this year\'s KD super.

You can see the fave/longshot bias at work in the difference between the expected 2015 and 2012 payouts: Hats off to the KY Derby Winner

Rocky

[Boscar Obarra]

One of my favorite tales is that of the Hurdle Championship (name escapes me) carried as a separate pool by  NY OTB back in the day.

 The favorite won , and two longshots completed the TRIFECTA.

 No one hit it. (100k pool) .  That was the \'too hard to wheel a horse on top in those days\' bias.