Beholder

[jbelfior]

The mile is a better conditioner for him.

So he ran down arguably one of the top 3 dirt horses in training (who was on a clear unpressured lead) but we dont know if he\'ll get a  1 1/4??


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[metroj]

Beholder had plenty of pre-race antics prior to the Oaks that year including unseating her jockey, would imagine she\'s much more settled as a 5 year old.

[ringato3]

Mike

Doesn\'t matter much right now, but if the betting pools were comprised of the top 10% of the shrewdest gamblers (if such a thing exists), I would agree AP might not be favored.

But he will be.

Agree with your points on how he trains and looks.   Although I still the presence of Liam\'s Map, or lack thereof, is a huge factor for AP.

I know he has tracked and gone by but there is a big difference between tracking a \"target\" like some of the speeds he tracked, versus tracking Liam\'s map, a big time quality horse.   Although that brings to question Pletcher getting a horse to run well on BC day.   Liam\'s map kind of reminds me of quality road and Pletcher got that one to run about 900 feet in his BC Classic....

Rob

[TGJB]

Ahem. Pletcher is not the only one who has had horses not run well on BC day. And this one is not on the West coast.

There will be some very fast horses going off at big prices in that race. Thinking Beholder might be second choice.

[miff]

Rob,

Distance a question, but Liam\'s Map held in highest regard by TAP since spring, regularly demolishes very fast workmates.Has to train as well as before to earn Classic shot or he goes mile.

If he runs,a must use for me, pace notwithstanding.Liam represents fast/older/class speed, don\'t picture AP getting by him too easy if at all.Classic looks to be a great race on paper and even better if HC and Tonalist run big Sat. Also,undefeated on grass multiple Group 1 winner Gleneagles,by Galileo out of full sister to Giants Causeway would also add intrigue,not certain to come.

Mike

[TGJB]

Saving ground on the lead has worked out pretty well recently in that race.

[Silver Charm]

Mandella has quite a Breeders Cup resume of wins but most if not all of them have been out West. He had a 3-bagger one year for sure and has had several of his horses run some giant efforts of the Big Day. Outside of California the strike rate, not so hot.

One Trainer who has won just about everywhere in this Event: NY, Florida, California and Kentucky, is Shug. Bill Mott can probably be included in that same conversation too. This isn\'t specific to a High Win % since over the years with supportive owners they end up running more than a few horses. Bu they have proven they know how to navigate their way into the Winners Circle wherever that may be!

[P-Dub]

Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> She was coming into the Kentucky Oaks off a decent
> layoff and ran a great race nearly winning. When
> she ran in the Phipps Im not sure she was 100%
> right, but they had committed to it, it was
> Belmont Triple Crown Day and she was the reigning
> defending champion. So they ran anyway. She went
> on a pretty long break again after that and passed
> on the Breeders Cup Distaff won by Untappable.
>
> Mandella is better than pretty good and for him to
> now begin firing shots like this has to make one
> think he knows something now about his mare that
> he wasn\'t seeing before.

She also dumped the rider in the post parade and seemed a bit worked up.  She ran a great race that day.

[analizethis]

From a site called gohorsebetting. They had 45 on the list; I culled it down and added Smooth Roller (winner AA on Saturday)

AP             8/5
Beholder       3/1
Honor Code     4/1
Keen Ice       8/1
Lea           10/1
Tonalist      10/1
Gleneagles    12/1
Liams Map     12/1
Frosted       14/1
Smooth Roller 20/1
Constitution  25/1
Wicked Strong 25/1
Coach Inge    50/1
Hard Aces     50/1    Won a \"win and you\'re in\"
Hoppertunity  50/1  

That\'s 15, I think they have a 1 1/4 mile chute on the KEE main track but I don\'t image they have run many 1 1/4 mile races there. Does anyone know if they have a limit for number of starters with this configration?

Bob

[milwmike]

Per Kee website, 9f stakes are limited to 14 starters, so you have to assume the same for 10f.

[hooper]

Keeneland is a 8.5 furlong track,the 10 furlong race will start at the 3/16 pole,close to the top of the stretch. They ran a 10 furlong race there last October 25,Blood Horse still has access to the video on their replay feature.
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/race/race-results?startDate=10%2F25%2F2014&endDate=10%2F25%2F2014&trackLookupId=959&type=AllRacing&statesBred=&searchStateBredPlacers=false

[analizethis]

Looks like they get a full 1/4 mile to the turn, in a field of 14 anyone with any tactical speed should be able to get half way decent position.

Bob

[TempletonPeck]

I think you are likely remembering the 2013 Distaff, at Santa Anita, in which (without taking any position on whether any of these had their best that day) she dominated PoS, Close Hatches, Royal Delta, and two others whose names escape me.

[TempletonPeck]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Ahem. Pletcher is not the only one who has had
> horses not run well on BC day. And this one is not
> on the West coast.
>
> There will be some very fast horses going off at
> big prices in that race. Thinking Beholder might
> be second choice.


Assuming all start, AP will go favored, HC will be second choice, and Beholder third. There\'s a sort of a cold tri for you ;-)

If Gleneagles starts, and goes 12/1 as mentioned above, I might win more than the owner if he crosses the line first.

[mjellish]

Yup.  I remembered that wrong.