Racing Don't Need This!

[johnnym]

As I age and reflect it seems as though an aweful lot of life was better in the past than it is in the present. This includes the ponies.
Growing up I use to get excited about a certain horse running my dad would say Johnny this horse or that horse is running do you think he can win? We would go to Belmont or wherever to watch. I had someone to cheer for something as a child to attach to.
Today my personnal biggest issue is the breeding shed is more important than the sport itself.
Fans need something to attach to,look at AP training and the turnout,Zenyatta always brought a crowd. Look at the turnout for the Derby the triple crown races etc. Give the fans something to get excited about.
To expect a newbie to the sport to get excited about a 10K claimer or a 28K alw is unrealistic,hell I dont even get excited about those races.
Good Luck

[pizzalove]

A lot of good points.  But in some ways this is more simple than we are making it.  Do drugs need to be out of the sport? Yes! But I don\'t know if that keeps people away.  I can tell you that losers in a casino swear that every game is fixed.  Indeed if you know anything about computer programming it is much easier to rig a video or online poker game than a horse race.  

Many many also bet football more often because it is simple to understand and fantasy football has exploded.  Horse racing requires some basic math knowledge: Trifectas, Pick 6, super, etc... Education in this country is going down the crapper so this hurts a little too.

The main thing that has changed and has hurt this industry is the gambler has changed.  No one wants to wait 30 minutes between races to root for a wager anymore.  Today you can bet on multiple things in seconds.  Even football gamblers are rarely betting one game.  they are far more likely to be watching multiple games at once.

The way to fix this is too make it an acquired taste.  Like a fine wine.  Cut the takeout in half(this is a big problem too) and do your best to make every track similar to a Keeneland or Saratoga.  I am leaving for Keeneland in one month and I can tell you that everyone I talk to when I am there love the experience.  Often people who have visited multiple tracks say there is nothing like Keeneland.  If every state had a Keeneland this sport would not just survive it would flourish.

[Topcat]

pizzalove Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> A lot of good points.  But in some ways this is
> more simple than we are making it.  Do drugs need
> to be out of the sport? Yes! But I don\'t know if
> that keeps people away.  I can tell you that
> losers in a casino swear that every game is fixed.
>  Indeed if you know anything about computer
> programming it is much easier to rig a video or
> online poker game than a horse race.  
>
> Many many also bet football more often because it
> is simple to understand and fantasy football has
> exploded.  Horse racing requires some basic math
> knowledge: Trifectas, Pick 6, super, etc...
> Education in this country is going down the
> crapper so this hurts a little too.
>
> The main thing that has changed and has hurt this
> industry is the gambler has changed.  No one wants
> to wait 30 minutes between races to root for a
> wager anymore.  Today you can bet on multiple
> things in seconds.  Even football gamblers are
> rarely betting one game.  they are far more likely
> to be watching multiple games at once.
>
> The way to fix this is too make it an acquired
> taste.  Like a fine wine.  Cut the takeout in
> half(this is a big problem too) and do your best
> to make every track similar to a Keeneland or
> Saratoga.  I am leaving for Keeneland in one month
> and I can tell you that everyone I talk to when I
> am there love the experience.  Often people who
> have visited multiple tracks say there is nothing
> like Keeneland.  If every state had a Keeneland
> this sport would not just survive it would
> flourish.


People say, \"There\'s nothing like Saratoga!\", \"There\'s nothing like Keeneland!\" AND \"There\'s nothing like Del Mar!\" . . . and, THEY\'RE ALL CORRECT.

[richiebee]

jerry Wrote:
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> Not to mention they\'re considering closing the
> track that has hosted the second leg of the triple
> crown for the past 145 years but I guess that\'s
> outisde of the stable core of very healthy
> facilities you\'re referring to so everything is
> fine.


You know Jerry I never thought of it that way.

Racing should follow a business model which has been successful in other
industries, keeping an aged facility open based on tradition. Right.

[asfufh]

IMHO, horse racing\'s only long term chance is to reduce the take out to be comparable to poker or blackjack (5%).
To me, that means the number of tracks need to be reduced dramatically (like 2 per time zone) similar to the Hong Kong set-up. Hopefully, this would concentrate handle enabling lower take-out.
Lower take out means more winners/players.

[Topcat]

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> jerry Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Not to mention they\'re considering closing the
> > track that has hosted the second leg of the
> triple
> > crown for the past 145 years but I guess that\'s
> > outisde of the stable core of very healthy
> > facilities you\'re referring to so everything is
> > fine.
>
>
> You know Jerry I never thought of it that way.
>
> Racing should follow a business model which has
> been successful in other
> industries, keeping an aged facility open based on
> tradition. Right.


Besides the obvious consideration of whether you want to permit Frank to throw money at the sounder prevailing facility with a lot more space in which to grow -- or throw TONS of money at the lesser structure, with its associated tradition.  This decision is also fraught with MARKED political considerations, vis a vis the job base at and surrounding the Pimlico and Laurel facilities . . . it\'s a Gordian Knot, for sure.

[miff]

Think the next impending crisis is what happens to Magna racetracks when Stronach is no longer around to support them.

[bellsbendboy]

Mike,

Consolidation is right around the corner as economics and the foal crop will demand. Eliminating some tracks and shortening meets mandatory.

Sports betting is a binary outcome with limited returns and should not threaten the much larger payoffs thoroughbred racing offers.

For me, educating the new players is, or should be a major concern/goal.  Too many irrelevant statistics/quick pick options/and ill equipped touts abound.

As a brief example; blinkers on. Many of todays newer players immediately look at how the trainer has done with this move, which is an irrelevant stat.  Better players realize starter approval is required and examine the workouts for additional clues.  bbb

[Breakage]

both sides are correct.

1)We surveyed over 100 online sportsbettors and poker players that were willfully breaking the law why not bet on fully lawful horse racing?  The number one answer by far and away was take out.

2)Something that has 1000outcomes at 25% is going to yield more posev bets than binomials at 4.5%.


So these kids may be smart enough to know 20% is higher than 10% is higher than 4.5% but they\'re clueless beyond the nominal take out.


Furthermore it is naïve believing that the ever expanding online handle on horse races is coming from the same crowd that still buys paper racing forms.


Even furthermore, take out is not linear, this is game theory-if they dropped the take out 10%-Dana, Wagner, Elite, zjelko etc....are going to realize most of that, not many folks are going to find racing any easier despite the nominal take out being significantly less-don\'t believe me-look at sports-
same guys who beat -110 into submission previously, are same guys beating -105 now with obviously a few exceptions.  
Cutting the take out in half from 4.5% to 2.25% has not resulted in a whole lot of change in who is winning and who is losing.




also, it should be noted, contrary to the hysterics, the states with legal online poker have found that the typical online poker player is a BRAND, NEW customer.

[Breakage]

BTW 8% is the magic number-

IGT the world\'s largest slot machine manufacturer figured out 8% take out in slots maximizes slot income and I don\'t see why racing handle would be any different.

[Boscar Obarra]

Sounds about right.

 And that , presumably would have the side effect of putting some rebater tactics out of commission, improving payoffs.

[jerry]

I don\'t consider \"friendly government\" subsidized businesses healthy. They\'re on life support. And I noticed you seemed to have cherry picked some of the boutique venues like Del Mar and the Spa leaving the likes of Belmont off of your list. Ready to throw in the towel on the big sandy too?

[richiebee]

jerry Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I don\'t consider \"friendly government\" subsidized
> businesses healthy. They\'re on life support.

  \"Friendly government\" was a movie reference. Which movie?

   Is your \"life support\" statement an assertion, a tenet or an opinion?
   Where would the Big Three U.S. automakers be right now without the help
   of a friendly government? How about the securities and commodities
   markets?
 

> And I noticed you seemed to have cherry picked some of
> the boutique venues like Del Mar and the Spa
> leaving the likes of Belmont off of your list.
> Ready to throw in the towel on the big sandy too?

    My first visit to Belmont was in 1977. Since then I have watched attendance
    dwindle drastically and have watched the physical plant deteriorate through
    neglect; NYRA has done much more to update the facilities at Aqueduct and
    Saratoga. Belmont will be lucky to draw 10,000 people on its big BC preview
    days during the Fall meet, so it would be irresponsible for me to include
    Belmont on any list of healthy racing venues, even though the relative
    quality of racing still produces a healthy \"all sources\" handle.

    If you wish to continue for a few more rounds, some facts or even personal
    observations would be appreciated.

[TGJB]

After reading the part about government and the automakers I had to recheck who posted this. Richie, you okay?

[jerry]

Don\'t know the movie.

Feel free to explain to me the difference between assertion, tenet and opinion.

The automakers and banks got bridge loans and backstops until the credit markets opened back up and, in the case of the auto makers, they restructured. Racing wishes its problem could be solved that easily. (I don\'t know where you\'re going with this anyway. You seemed to be arguing in favor of survival of the fittest tracks and then you trumpet the virtues of \"friendly government\" bailouts. Huh?

If it\'s not a fact and it\'s not a personal observation then what is it? Maybe an assertion, a tenet or an opinion.

My original point was simply that tradition does matter, maybe not to you, but to general public it does. More people watch the triple crown races than any other event in horse racing including BC. And that\'s a fact.