frosted or fraudsted?

[metroj]

Does anyone think that saving ground on the dirt at Saratoga today was advantageous?   I\'ll hang up and listen.

[big18741]

When was the last Travers with a fast final time?

Answer is there hasn\'t been one in over 20 years.
That race is always run in 2:01 and change or slower.

Give the mediocre plodder/improving slug some credit.

Frosted did the dirty work but Keen Ice solid.

[miff]

There isn\'t a REMOTE chance that KI runs down Frosted or AP if they don\'t run that middle contested half, simple cause and effect in a race. Monmouth pace and performance by AP another story on a different day.

[TGJB]

The assertion board is back. We\'re giving excuses to a 1/5 shot who gets away with a 48 half in a GI on dirt.

[miff]

You have to have little knowledge of racing to think that AP and Frosted get the last quarter in 26.49 without be gassed from the middle half.Thats not an assertion it\'s racing knowledge.

Not excusing AP, explaining what obviously happened.

[touchgold]

wow, what an ego

[miff]

Not at all Touch, that\'s elementary to anyone with a clue.

[TGJB]

I\'ll throw this out, then done for the night. Can you even process the concept that if he goes a second slower early, he goes a second faster later, and ends up with the same time? That KI would be a second closer, and end up with his same time? There are extreme pace scenarios that affect outcomes. For top stake horses this wasn\'t even close to being one.

[ringato3]

No idea what I am looking at?

With regards to what?

Rob

[ringato3]

Mike

Middle half contested - sure.

First half horribly slow on a track they went 1:20 flat on 90 minutes esrlier.

To me, the slow first half and the quick middle half net out, roughly (no science here, just a reasonable guess)

Pharaoh under duress on far turn.   Just not very good today, relative to haskell.   Gutsy in stretch IMO to hold on till late, but no punch.

Pace not a good excuse IMO.  

Rob

[miff]

Errr I\'ll buy you a new house if you regularly find 46 change middle halves at 10f

[miff]

Rob,

Agree AP ordinary today. My point,contrary to what JB is suggesting, the winner NEVER wins if AP and Frosted don\'t throw down in the middle. They run to wire and maybe Frosted or AP wins.

Mike

[P-Dub]

I was out this afternoon, just watched the race.

JB says it all the time.  They may look great galloping, they may look great in workouts.  The stress of a race is when you find out how taxing previous efforts were and what the effect is. It would appear that the 3 week turn around, combined with the constant shipping, took a little starch out of AP today.

I think Baffert knew this, which is why he was so hesitant to run him.  If Zayat didn\'t want to run there so badly, I\'m not so sure he runs today.

I agree with Miff a lot, but disagree here. The pace, or any part of the race where AP was contested, didn\'t have as much to do with that performance. The quick turnaround off the huge effort played a major role. They went 1.11 and change, if he didn\'t want to be hooked by Frosted then go in 1.10 and change. He couldn\'t do that.

Its easier to ship East Coast based horses around, the travel isn\'t as extreme.  Shipping from a NYRA track to Monmouth/Parx/CD isn\'t the same as shipping a horse from California clear across the country.

I give AP credit for digging in down the stretch, thought he showed a lot of heart today.

Texas Red was disappointing today, that was a putrid performance.

Congrats to Keen Ice, running late is his style and if the leaders backed up makes sense that he was the one to run them down.

What now?  Does he run in 4 weeks at SA, then run 5 weeks later in the BC?? Does he train up to the BC?  Do they just shut him down and retire him?  I can\'t see them shipping him again before the BC. Wouldn\'t be surprised if this turns out to be his last race. Its been a long year, lots of travel, fires a big shot every time. AP doesn\'t owe anybody a thing.

[ringato3]

Your middle half of 46.6 was part of a mile in 1:35.  

1:35 on that track, unless it changed drastically from 90 minutes earlier, is not fast.

Keen ice was fine.

Frosted looks distance challenged and AP wasn\'t same horse.

Upstart a \"has been\" and Texas Red despicable.

That is why keen ice won.   Don\'t think a mile in 1:35 was the culprit, fast middle half notwithstanding.

Rob

[mjellish]

3rd fraction was a quick one, but not enough that it should have fried AP IMO.  I could see it cooking Frosted because that one ran a bit contrary to his style - was closer to the lead and did the dirty work on AP.  But to me, AP was still empty for the drive for whatever reason.  Think if he was ready for a top effort he would have had enough left.  It wasn\'t that fast, they didn\'t come at him in waves, and you can\'t make excuses for him just because he had one colt next to him early.  I say he bounced, and you can chalk it up to coming off a big effort off a layoff with two cross country ships on short rest or whatever.  They aren\'t machines and are entitled to bounce.  They\'re actually supposed to.

Makes the BC Classic more interesting IMO.  Now we\'ll see if Baffert can bring him back around for one last top effort.  His sheet will look pretty good by then off of this if he goes, which is good if you like him.  Your odds will be better, and more people will spread in the horizontals which helps ALOT if you are still willing to forgive this one and single him.