American Pharoah will run in the Travers

[philywheel]

Tell Secretariat and Man o war that

[TGJB]

...and Native Dancer, and Smarty, and Rachel...

[Boscar Obarra]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> ... If you could see the
> mutual printouts of the Travers, for all pools,
> you would salivate. AP will be overweight x5
> creating monstrous overlays on the remaining
> combinations.


 I\'m not sure this is really true. X5? Are you saying that if AP is 1/2 ($3)  and some other runner is 4-1 ($10), that the pick 4 let\'s say, would be a LOT more than 3.3x the payoff?

 I don\'t look too closely at p-3 p-4, but I\'m fairly sure that the DD pool does not skew all that much from fair odds. If you\'ve seen otherwise , I\'d like to hear it.

[miff]

Box,

Most rolling DD pools at major venues run much closer to parlay value because of the lack of liquidity and it\'s only a two race sequence.DD pools track far closer than pick 4,5,6s

As someone who almost exclusively plays pick 4s 5s 6s, can tell you that have seen the details of these pools in NY a while back.Have seen many 3x parlay multiples when an overweight horse/horses out of sequence.Reasonable to assume AP will be way overweight,if not,5x not possible.

The \"normal\" X time multiple could well be up to 5x sans AP and all chalk in other legs,assuming full fields.Have no idea what other legs look like.

Not sure any other horse will only be 4-1 value in pick 4,6( Texas Red?)

Mike

[ringato3]

Box / Mike,

I bet into the pick-3, pick-4 and pick-5 sequence at Monmouth with AP running there.

And I looked at the \"juicy\" will pays in the pick 3 and pick 4 that ended with the Haskell.  Nobody was less than 10-1+ value in the last race and AP was almost zero value if/when he won.  

MAYBE with Frosted and Texas Red running it won\'t be quite as exaggerated, but I think it will.  (second choice was 5-1 or so in Haskell in win pool.  Expect same in Travers)

As somebody who also plays 95% pick-3/4/5, I am sure the \"value\" will be fantastic, should he lose.

problem is he looks \"loose\" again and is training great.  Personally tired of Frosted, so if i was to take one shot to beat him it would be Texas Red.  Those that saw Jim Dandy and decided Frosted was undertrained and \"prepping\" and \"getting to\" Texas Red late, saw a different race than i did.  What I saw was Texas Red, a confirmed closer, showing a tactical gear he hadn\'t shown before, which is VERY OFTEN an indication of a forward move in a horse\'s form.  As such, maybe we see his very best on Saturday, similar to his dominating BC Juvenile performance.  If we see it, MAYBE we see a horse race.

A lot of \"maybe\'s\", but I might waste/invest a few sheckels to see if I am right.

Somebody here on the forum talks about betting a deli to win a pickle.  This might be the opposite.  (Frank D?)

Rob

[TGJB]

There\'s a track somewhere they call the graveyard of something. I forget...

[miff]

Rob,

Texas Red was maybe a plan until seeing him gallop at SPA twice. Confirming that was some good full time eye-ballers who thought he looked better training up to the Jim Dandy(not that he looks bad though)

If the pick 4,6 sequence looks loaded with good fields, maybe a shot is in order otherwise don\'t know.After watching AP\'s sick work on Sun, a yellow streak began to appear down my back.


Mike

[miff]

SPA RACES:
 
224
DIRT:
 
107
TURF:
 
117

FAVORITES:
71 (32 percent)


2ND CHOICES:
53 (24 percent)

TURF WIRE:
20 (17 percent)


DIRT WIRE:
28 (26 percent)

[TGJB]

Didn\'t you just get dome telling me stats don\'t matter? History is irrelevant?

I have a good one for you in the seminar...

Anyway, you\'re right, favorites have about a one in three chance.

Anybody know where the current sports usage of the word upset comes from?

[magicnight]

\"Anybody know where the current sports usage of the word upset comes from?\"

I\'ve read that - contrary to popular belief - it is NOT because that is the name of the only horse to ever beat Man o\' War.

BTW, in that race (pre-starting gate), the big red one was turned sideways when the wire was lifted, and he spotted Upset quite a few lengths.

Will add that 2/3 TC winners \"lost\" the Travers, although Affirmed did finish first but was DQ\'d.

Jim Dandy beat Gallant Fox in 1930 Travers. Whirlaway the only TC/Travers winner.

[miff]

\"Didn\'t you just get dome telling me stats don\'t matter? History is irrelevant\"


Chisel this in stone \"Unfiltered racing stats are irrelevant, sample size notwithstanding\"

Since Baffert is 2-30 in routes at SPA, AP is a terrible bet, right?

[TGJB]

I\'m writing a seminar, my opinions will be there.

Hypothetically, that stat wouldn\'t even make me blink if the horse I liked was 20-1. Beyond that, this is a silly argument-- you quote stats and tell me not to pay attention to stats. I guess they should stop doing batting averages, ERA, stop publishing trainer and jockey records...

[miff]

Note, \"horse racing stats\" some gamblers do well using sports stats to beat that game.

Only posted current favorite stats for info.SPA being the graveyard of favorites is a wives tale. Couple of great horses defeated there eons ago and so the \"graveyard\" tale was spun.

[Mathcapper]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Most rolling DD pools at major venues run much
> closer to parlay value because of the lack of
> liquidity and it\'s only a two race sequence.

Having tracked DD Will Pays regularly since before puberty, I can unequivocally confirm Boscar's comment that DD pools, on average, do not skew much from win odds (I've posted about this topic on more than one occasion on the board). Yes the DD pools aren't as liquid as the win pools (which are also more efficient), but liquidity is an argument for why the DD pools might not track the win odds as close as they do, which doesn't bear itself out in the evidence.

> DD pools track far closer than pick 4,5,6s

This is only true in terms of variation between individual results, not for the overall average. Results for longer sequences will naturally see more individual variation because they include more races, but the overall averages for all horizontal sequences converge pretty much where you'd expect them to based on the math (I did a study, albeit a small sample, on Pk3's, Pk4's and Pk5's in the SoCal circuit a few years back that confirmed this).

> Have seen many 3x > parlay multiples when
> an overweight horse/horses {is} out of sequence.

This can certainly happen, especially in Pick 5's and Pick 6's where the expected payout is close to twice the parlay anyway when you adjust for takeout (the fact that you're only getting hit with the takeout once in the multis). A 3x payout is not altogether uncommon in Pk5's and Pk6's and does not necessarily indicate that a heavy chalk was overbet.

If this were the case, then you'd expect to see the opposite (huge underlays) occur when such horses are part of the sequence. When I filtered the results of the study indicated above for any winning horses that were 2/5 or lower, I found that the results for the sample of sequences were, on average, pretty close to those of the overall total. They did tend to pay a bit less than the overall total, but the difference was minor, and still higher than what was expected based on the takeout-adjusted parlays in this particular study. And certainly nowhere near the type of underlays you'd expect if you were to see 3x to 5x overlays when these horses were not part of the sequence: Do Heavy Faves Get Overbet in the Multis?

As for Rob's comment re: the Haskell, the Pick 3 paid +45.4% above the parlay, which was actually a little more than the +31.2% expected after adjusting for takeout. The Pick 4 did pay a little less than expected, but it wasn't out of the realm of normal variation (+22.1% more than the parlay vs. an expectation of +79.1%).

Not saying that a heavy \"single-type\" chalk can't be greatly overbet in the multis in any individual sequence, but on a regular basis? I'm not seeing any evidence of it.

Rocky R

[miff]

Thanks Math. What is your take on what will occur, price wise,if AP is out of the pick 4 on Sat,assuming a huge pool.