Fillies

[Tavasco]

They kick ass. Real and skillful athletes. Entertaining.

Hooray! On to World Cup semis.

[P-Dub]

You must love watching WNBA basketball.

The only reason to watch that game is because they are USA. Period.

[Tavasco]

While women\'s soccer may be considered, by some thrill seekers, equally as unexciting and amateurish as women\'s basketball. I saw a squad play China last night which played a game the likes of which I\'d never seen women play.

In all fairness, the only game I had previously viewed was USA vs Japan in the last (I think) World Cup. That one was only frustrating and did not show the skills I saw last night. I\'ve never watched a WNBA game I imagine they are as dull as most NBA games that don\'t involve the World Champion Warriors.

I will say that the women opened as a 5/2 favorite and at this point I wish I\'d bet them. Alas, I bet horses where the skills, strategies and teamwork are more obtuse which leads me to this weeks ROTW.

Last week we were reminded that the fastest horse usually wins. Of course it didn\'t but, in my view, should have. I assume Tencendur was awarded the best TG #. When one used just a little imagination per analysis a nice exacta. Kudos, typically I employ too much imagination last week too little.

This week the lesson appears KISS. Moreno is the clear choice it is claimed. Distance is no question it is asserted, he ran huge at CT then bounced in his last so naturally he is back to his peak now and probably won\'t need it anyway. Further it is planned to use Majestic City for something. So I am confronted by my Achilles Heel imagination/delusion. I can see the analysis horses they are as plain as day. I suppose the m/l is a function of running second last out and is in fact a benefit. Certainly a Moreno win last out would make him short priced indeed.

In considering the opinion of those who study the fine line or is it the line fine I can be influenced by Batti Man\'s two recent good numbers or even Hard Aces big ole zero at the beginning of the year. The prices on those two looks to be seductive in that context. However perspective tells me I\'ve already missed the opportunity on those two. I\'m also a fan of Mulhall. I think she is a first rate horsewoman and maybe a soccer fan but I don\'t think she gets the top horses yet. Sadler is streaky and as such can be dangerous but he really didn\'t beat much of a field in La. and the # looks an aberration.

My hesitance. Moreno doesn\'t win at a high pct. He is a grade One winner and he has a top sheet but he\'s winless @ 1+1/4. I\'ll give you getting beat by a nose in the Travers by I\'ll Take Charge backs up the TG point that distance is not an issue. Moreno has gone off form previously, was CT a knock out? Probably not. I wish I knew what happened to him last fall.

Among other irrelevant considerations. Majestic City, another whose sheet looks good. But, has City Zip ever sired a 1+1/4 stakes winner. We\'ve all seen the distance humble more than a couple of brilliant milers. Same argument with Dearchy & Motown Men who sure has upped his game recently.

So in the end, why has Baffert entered Hopportunity in this race? It\'s been pointed out his win pct sags on short rest. Further BB seemed to avoid SoCal races with the Hopper as a three y/o methinks his off the pace running style is not enhanced by the SA surface. If that is dead money as it seems, a nice gift. Yet maybe he doesn\'t regress? Same can be said about Catch a Flight. Maybe he\'s a durable one. If memory serves some of the previous Mandella imports were iron horses.

I\'ll take a stand against Majestic City, siding instead,lemming like, with the crowd, using the other two short priced horses and Finnegan\'s Wake in trifectas under Moreno. That\'s as imaginative as I can get in this race.

[Rick B.]

Tavasco Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Moreno has gone off form previously, was CT a
> knock out? Probably not. I wish I knew what
> happened to him last fall.

Same question I\'m asking. Isn\'t today\'s race the
\"X\" of the 0-2-X pattern?

Moreno did the same the last 2 years, although last
year it took an extra race to get the \"X\" race to appear.

Tricky read for me, makes me think I ought to pass this one.

[jbelfior]

ROTW is a real head scratcher to me. Moreno may be the clear choice on numbers but he is 0 for at SA and the distance and the the race shape looks like they\'re not going to go slow in here.
Which brings me to the horse who pulled up past all of them in the Californian. Yes, I agree Lideris is too slow-----to win. But you can do worse than a 60-1 shot rounding out your tri.

Good Luck,
Joe B

[miff]

Moreno bounced in his last?....that\'s a scoop!

[P-Dub]

Batti Man - looks like a 3 and change

Hard Aces - big number to start the year, then back to his usual, which is around BM figure (3 and change)

Poshky - Great looking pattern as a 3YO, but has never gone past that 3 and change. As a 5YO looks like his number is also around the 3-4 range.

Motown Men - West gets ahold of him as a 6YO, and now he\'s running 4+ points better than before. Those last 3 were at distances of 1M and 1 1/16. Don\'t know if this guy runs that number at this distance.

Majestic City - This is the clear play to me. On his best, he\'s faster than everyone but Moreno and Hoppertunity, who will be much lower.

Hoppertunity - This is a nice horse, and is fast. But he\'s never run 2 of his best BTB, so if he does that again - backs up a couple points - he can be beat. The short rest is a concern too, 14 days shipping back from CD.

Big Cazanova - If not for Batti Man pressuring the pace, this one would be very interesting. If he can settle and not get hooked into a duel, its time for one of his good ones. Around a 2, which can definitely be good enough to hit the board.

Moreno - Yeah, I see the sheet. He\'s fast, and has several good enough to win. But that Chuckytown race was huge, and he might still be feeling the effects of it.  He ran that same number at the Spa, didn\'t have to travel again and ran another neg there. Then backed up a bit at Belmont. This year marches right back down to the big number, then backs up 2 points last time. If he runs around a 2 (certainly not out of the question), then that doesn\'t make him any faster than several here. He\'s traveled quite a bit already this year. I\'m taking a stand against this guy today, not saying he runs a clunker, but he\'s not on top of my tickets.

Catch A Flight -  Pairs 3.1 three times then runs a 1/2 last time. Analysis says bounce, I see a solid older horse getting better. At the smallish price I can\'t use on top, but hard to see this horse not run a good race and hit the board.

Lideris - Slow

Finnegan\'s Wake - No doubt he gets the distance, and his turf numbers are pretty decent. If he runs his usual number, a 2.2, he is right there. He also gets the benefit of one of the greatest riders of all time, a rider that is simply incredible in the big races. I mean, this guy is so good I\'m giving this horse a 1/4 point bonus just because he\'s the jockey today.


Majestic City is the clear play for me. There are valid reasons that those that can run faster, won\'t. I think Big Cazanova and Finnegan\'s Wake can be used underneath, as well as Catch A Flight.  Will add in Moreno underneath too, and possibly Motown Men or Hoppertunity.  Leaning Hoppertunity.

My play will be a win bet on Majestic City.
Exacta Boxes with Big Cazanova, Finnegan\'s Wake, and Catch A Flight.
Trifecta keying Majestic City over the 5 mentioned. Will also play a trifecta with the 3 exacta horses on top, and keying MC in the 2/3 slots.

Great card at The Great Race Place today............

...........and How Bout Them Dubs!!!!!! 40 years was worth the wait.

Have a great Saturday everybody.

[Coronado98]

As mentioned elsewhere here, Moreno is zero for Santa Anita and the 10 panels may be one more than he wants.  He is down three on Catch a Flight though and he is the honest type of runner, that\'s two positive check marks he has.

Catch a Flight may not bounce that much or even at all.  The race flow favors his style and he does not pick up any weight after that last victory.  

Win, Place 9
Exacta Box 9/2,6,8

[Bet Twice]

Agreed Rick - tough race to get too excited about.  Best patterns IMO are on Majestic and Motown man, but not sure either want the distance.  Moreno seems about as equally likely to x as pair up and not sure he\'s at his best at 10f.  The fav doesn\'t need to bounce IMO, his last was a jump up but not huge and could pair up.
I\'ll pass.

[P-Dub]

22/1 on Majestic City

Hoppertunity 2/1 if he runs I don\'t cash at that price. Passing.

[P-Dub]

Don\'t you just love it when you are beaten 1 jump out of the gate?

Nice ride by Victor.

[Tavasco]

Good objectivity guys. Smart pass hope you didn\'t 2nd guess yourselves. Adios Moreno.

I\'m left wondering if Hoppertunity is that difficult to ride. Garcia sure made it look hard.

[ringato3]

A place bet on the 6/5 favorite and exacta boxes 6/5 over 2nd, 3rd and 4th choices.......

Hmmmm.....


You had very little shot to actually win money before the race even started, you do realize that?  

Rob

[ringato3]

Tavasco,

When I saw my pick 4 single, Hoppertunity, go 8 wide on the far turn, I had to double check the \"late changes\" to ensure that was Martin Garcia riding him and not another famously wide west coast jockey.  (not saying names Pdub.......)

Great ride by Victor, but seemingly really poor job by Garcia to go THAT wide.  HE goes 5 wide instead of 7/8 wide, he wins.  HAve to watch replay and see if horse was getting out on him, or just a poor ride.

Why is that when you get beat a nose in the penultimate leg of a multi-race sequence that the longest shot you used in the last race becomes a lock to win?

A torturous game we choose to play.  Sleepness nights, screaming at TVs as if the jockey could hear you, and strange looks from spouses and other family members.......

What time is first post tomorrow............

Rob

[Tavasco]

Ouch... and mostly maintain your sense of humor well done!